Matthew Freedman highlights his favorite wide receivers to start in fantasy football in Week 14.


Well, it's here.

Week 14.

As Hamlet puts it: “If it be now, 'tis not to come; if it be not to come, it will be now; if it be not now, yet it will come. The readiness is all.”

I don't know what that means, but it sounds important.

The time is now. For most fantasy leagues, this is the final week of the regular season. For some fantasy managers, this is a commencement: The true beginning of the fantasy playoffs. Win and in. Lose and out.

For others, this is a conclusion: The end, no matter what.

And for a few borderline souls … a purgatory. At this point, your fate is out of your hands. You just have to wait and see what happens.

Regardless of your station entering this terminus, may the pigskin gods look upon you kindly.

No matter who you are, all of us can use a little mercy.

As of Tuesday morning, here's an early look at my (preliminary) favorite Week 14 fantasy plays—the guys who (in some combination) …

  • Might be high in my fantasy rankings relative to the industry consensus.
  • Need to be started in most season-long leagues.
  • Must be added if they are on waivers.
  • Possess underappreciated upside.
  • Have advantageous matchups.
  • Should be considered in daily fantasy.
  • Make for desirable dynasty acquisition targets.
  • Are on teams with player-friendly betting odds.
  • Stand out in our Fantasy Life Player Prop Tool.

Some customary notes.

Updates: After I submit this piece, any changing opinions I have will be reflected in my rankings and my projections (accessible with a FantasyLife+ subscription), which I will update throughout the week.

Scoring & Ordering: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated. Players in separate sections are ordered within position roughly (but probably not precisely) according to my rankings.

Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use.

Bye Week: This week, the Ravens. Commanders, Texans, Broncos, Colts, and Patriots are on bye.

Sports Betting Data: Odds are as of 10:30 a.m. ET on Tuesday, Dec. 3, and based on the consensus lines in our Fantasy Life Odds Page.

Freedman's Favorites: Although we publish this piece as four separate articles broken out by position, I think of it as one cohesive whole and write it as such. With that in mind, please be sure to check out the rest of my favorite Week 14 fantasy football plays in the other positional previews.

Best WRs For Fantasy Football Week 14

Tee Higgins (Bengals) at Cowboys

  • Bengals: -5.5
  • O/U: 49.5
  • TT: 27.5

Ja'Marr Chase gets the headlines with his explosive playmaking ability — but Tee Higgins actually has more targets than Chase (68 vs. 59) in their seven games together this year, and his statline of 43-558-5 receiving is nothing to sneeze at when you remember that he has missed five games this season with hamstring and quadricep injuries.

Higgins has been especially strong since returning to action in Week 11 with 24-217-2 receiving on 23 targets, and his usage relative to Chase's has been encouraging.

  • Higgins: 93% route rate | 25% target rate | 28% target share | 36% air yard share
  • Chase: 99% route rate | 22% target rate | 27% target share | 30% air yard share

I'm not deranged enough to say something like, "Higgins, not Chase, is actually the No. 1 WR for the Bengals." That's simply something I would never say…

…but I might think it. Or at least I might think about thinking it. I might even think about typing it and putting it in a fantasy article.

But I wouldn't say it.

I would, though, say this: "Higgins is as close to a co-No. 1 WR as a player can get." For the entire season, he's No. 1 at the position in our Fantasy Life Utilization Score (8.9).

Higgins might not be the No. 1 WR for the Bengals, but he's still a legit No. 1 WR, and the Cowboys could be without CBs Trevon Diggs (groin, knee) and Josh Butler (knee).

Calvin Ridley (Titans) vs. Jaguars

  • Titans: -3.5
  • O/U: 39.5
  • TT: 21.5

“And thus the whirligig of time brings in his revenges.”

Since Week 8 — when the Titans traded away No. 1 WR DeAndre Hopkins — Calvin Ridley, for a six-game stretch, has looked like a low-key No. 1 WR himself.

  • Utilization: 95% route rate | 23% target rate | 29% target share | 45% air yard share
  • Production: 31-496-2 receiving | 51 targets

But even more important than that—obviously—is the fact that this is a #RevengeGame for Ridley against his former team.

That definitely matters.

Sure, it's also nice for him that the Jaguars are No. 3 in largest fantasy boost allowed to WRs (+6.1) and might be without No. 1 CB Tyson Campbell (thigh).

But what matters most is definitely getting pay back against the team that paid him to play football last year. 

Keenan Allen (Bears) at 49ers

  • Bears: +4
  • O/U: 43.5
  • TT: 19.75

So what if my sister said, "That guy looks like a middle-aged accountant with three kids," when she saw Keenan Allen helmetless on Thanksgiving?

What matters to me is that Allen has been used by the Bears as if he's the No. 1 WR ahead of DJ Moore and Rome Odunze in six games since the Week 7 bye.

  • Allen: 96% route rate | 21% target rate | 28% target share | 33% air yard share
  • Moore: 99% route rate | 18% target rate | 25% target share | 22% air yard share
  • Odunze: 91% route rate | 18% target rate | 22% target share | 34% air yard share

In his three games with interim OC-turned-interim HC Thomas Brown calling plays, Allen has looked almost like his old, er, former self with 18-200-3 receiving on 31 targets, and without former defensive HC Matt Eberflus — who was dismissed this past week after what can be described only as a travesty of clock management — the Bears should play a little looser and more aggressively on offense.

As a road underdog, Allen has a chance to see a few extra targets with a pass-heavy game script, and if slot CB Deommodore Lenoir (knee) is out again this week then Allen could have an excellent matchup up against journeyman special-teamer/backup CB Nick McCloud, who has a 49.4 coverage grade this year (per PFF). 

Marquez Valdes-Scantling (Saints) at Giants

  • Saints: -5
  • O/U: 40
  • TT: 22.5

Yes, I'm highlighting Marquez Valdes-Scantling in this article for the second week in a row. Whenever the guy who couldn't find consistency with QBs Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, and Josh Allen becomes a weekly contributor with Derek Carr throwing him the ball, one must take notice.

I'm under no illusion: Valdes-Scantling is probably a fugazi. He's probably not 1) actually good at football and/or 2) reliable as a fantasy asset.

But especially with six teams on bye he's viable as a desperado boom/bust flier because he at least has a legitimate chance to rack up 100 yards and score a TD.

The primary factor in his favor is that the Saints are extremely depleted at pass catcher: They're without WRs Chris Olave (concussion, IR), Rashid Shaheed (knee, IR), and Bub Means (ankle, IR), and TE Taysom Hill (knee). Valdes-Scantling has limited-at-best competition for playing time and targets.

And that's borne out in the numbers. In his three games without Olave since Week 10, Valdes-Scantling has served as the team's No. 1 WR … and the results have been livable.

  • Utilization: 79% route rate | 41% air yards share | 50% endzone target share
  • Production: 7-232-4 receiving | 23.2 yards per target

Now, it's not great that he has just 10 targets in this span. I admit, that's bad.

But Valdes-Scantling just joined the team at the end of October, so his role could improve the longer he's in New Orleans, and his 22.8-yard aDOT with the Saints makes him a threat to turn any potential touch into a long TD.

The Giants are No. 31 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 1 WRs (27.9%).

The Deep Route

A.J. Brown (Eagles -12.5, TT: 29.25) vs. Panthers: With his injury-shortened Week 9 removed, Brown has 42-757-4 receiving on 58 targets in eight games. While his volume is modest, Brown is still No. 1 in the league with a 53% share of air yards and 89% WOPR, so he's at least maximizing his opportunities via efficiency (12.8 yards per target this year, 10.2 for career). The Eagles might gain be without No. 2 WR DeVonta Smith (hamstring), and the Panthers are No. 29 in defensive dropback SR (49.8%).

"WOPR" stands for "weighted opportunity rating," and it measures the overall quality of a player's aerial role in his offense by considering his share of targets and air yards.

Mike Evans (Buccaneers -7, TT: 26.5) vs. Raiders: After missing multiple games with a hamstring injury, Evans—who has just 39-521-7 receiving—will need to finish the season hot if he's to extend his NFL-record streak of career-opening 1,000-yard campaigns to 11. Last week, the team got the memo as Evans had 12 targets, which he leveraged into 8-118-1 receiving, and I can imagine him having similar usage again this week. For the Raiders, perimeter CB Jakorian Bennett (shoulder, IR) is out, and slot CB Nate Hobbs (ankle) last played in Week 9.

Drake London (Falcons +5, TT: 20.25) at Vikings: London got an obscene 16 targets last week out of the bye, and he could get the "Justin Jefferson" treatment once again from QB Kirk Cousins in the passer's #RevengeGame return to Minneapolis. The Vikings could be without CB Stephon Gilmore (hamstring), who exited last week early.

Jakobi Meyers (Raiders +7, TT: 19.5) at Buccaneers: Since the Raiders gave playcalling duties to interim OC Scott Turner, Meyers has 20-246-0 receiving on 32 targets with 1-20-0 rushing in three games. Slot CB Tykee Smith (knee) has been out since Week 10 for the Buccaneers, who are No. 29 in defensive dropback EPA (0.148).

Jameson Williams (Lions -3.5, TT: 27.5) vs. Packers: No one knows when Williams will score a TD, but he plays on the league's highest-scoring team (31.9 points per game), and he has just one TD since Week 7. I'm not saying he's due … but he could score a TD in any game, and when he has scored this year he has also had big yardage totals (134, 126, 87, 80). Williams has had decent usage (25 targets, four carries) in his four games since returning from midseason suspension, and the Packers could be without No. 1 CB Jaire Alexander (knee), who has played just 10 snaps since Week 9.

Jaylen Waddle (Dolphins -6.5, TT: 26) vs. Jets: Waddle's mediocre Week 13 (4-53-0 receiving, four targets) mirrors what has been a disappointing season (45-601-2 receiving, 60 targets). But Waddle in his fourth year is still very much the same player who opened his career with three straight 1,000-yard campaigns … and the Jets might be missing No. 1 CB Sauce Gardner (hamstring), who exited last week early with a soft-tissue injury.

Abbreviations

  • Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
  • Against the Spread (ATS)
  • Over/Under (O/U)
  • Team Total (TT)
  • Moneyline (ML)
  • Return on Investment (ROI)
  • Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
  • Expected Points Added (EPA)
  • Success Rate (SR)
  • Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
  • Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
  • AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
  • Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
  • Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
  • Short Down and Distance (SDD)
  • Long Down and Distance (LDD)
  • Dropback Over Expected (DBOE)