“Which WRs do you like this week?”

Great question from the gentleman in the front row. Thanks for asking.

As of Tuesday evening, here's an early look at my (preliminary) favorite wide receivers for fantasy football Week 4—the guys who (in some combination) …

  • Might be high in my fantasy rankings relative to the industry consensus.
  • Need to be started in most season-long leagues.
  • Must be added if they are on waivers.
  • Possess underappreciated upside.
  • Have advantageous matchups.
  • Should be considered in daily fantasy.
  • Make for desirable dynasty acquisition targets.
  • Are on teams with player-friendly betting odds.
  • Catch my eye with their player projections.
  • Stand out in our player prop tool.

Some notes.

Updates: After I submit this piece, any changing opinions I have will be reflected in my fantasy football rankings and my projections (accessible with a FantasyLife+ subscription), which I will update throughout the week.

Rankings Accuracy: Last year I was No. 18 in the FantasyPros Accuracy Contest. That was my sixth season with a top-20 finish.

Scoring & Ordering: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated. Players are ordered within position roughly (but maybe not precisely) according to my rankings.

Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use.

Sports Betting Data: Odds are as of 10:15 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Sep. 24, and based on the consensus lines in our Fantasy Life Odds Page.

For the rest of my favorite fantasy football plays for Week 4, sorted by position, see below:

Best WRs for Fantasy Football Week 4

Marvin Harrison (Cardinals) vs. Commanders

  • Cardinals: -3.5
  • O/U: 50.5
  • TT: 27

Last week, the first two WRs I highlighted in my piece were Ja'Marr Chase (who was facing the Commanders) and Harrison (who is going against them now)… so I simply must highlight the rookie again.

Harrison disappointed in his first NFL game with one four-yard reception on three targets, but in the two games since then he has looked like a bonafide stud, with 9-194-3 receiving on 19 targets.

The top overall player in Dwain McFarland's WR Super Model — not just for 2024 but also for all the history of the Super Model — Harrison is living up to the hype and should continue to do so against the Commanders, who have given it up this year to alpha WRs.

Harrison is already an alpha, and the Commanders are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (44.7) and largest fantasy boost allowed to WRs (+12.8).

Malik Nabers (Giants) vs. Cowboys

  • Giants: +5.5
  • O/U: 45
  • TT: 19.75

Despite being a rookie, Nabers is No. 1 in the league with a 40% target share, 54% air share, and 99% WOPR. 

"WOPR" stands for "weighted opportunity rating," and it measures the overall quality of a player's aerial role in his offense by considering his share of targets and air yards.

Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase, and Puka Nacua have all had amazing rookie campaigns in recent years… but not since the days of Odell Beckham has a rookie WR — almost all on his own — elevated a passing attack and captured the fascination of fans.

Nabers already looks like one of the league's top playmakers, and I'm skeptical the Cowboys' defense will be able to stop him, as No. 1 CB Trevon Diggs has not looked like himself since returning from last year's season-ending knee injury. In Week 2, the Cowboys used him to shadow Saints WR Rashid Shaheed on 68.8% of his routes (per FTN) … and he finished the day with a 51.9 coverage grade (per PFF).

Diontae Johnson (Panthers) vs. Bengals

  • Panthers: +4.5
  • O/U: 48
  • TT: 21.75

Johnson has always been an underappreciated player. As a rookie, he led the Steelers with 92 targets in what was supposed to be No. 1 WR JuJu Smith-Schuster's ascension season in the post-Antonio Brown era.

In the three years after that, Johnson averaged 153.3 targets and five carries per season on his way to 3,059 yards and 15 total TDs.

And then last season, in what was an injury-and disposition-impacted campaign, he still averaged a career-high 8.2 yards per target.

Johnson is a good player… and last week, with Andy Dalton installed as the starter, he came alive with a 95% route rate, 35% target rate, 38% target share, 59% air share, and 80% endzone share.

The result was a career-high 122 yards receiving along with a TD.

With competent QB play, Johnson has returned from the dead — and he almost had a massive day, given that he just missed out on two additional TDs. Sheesh.

With WR Adam Thielen (hamstring) on Injured Reserve, Johnson is in line to have another big day, and the Bengals — on a one-day rest-and-prep deficit — are No. 31 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 1 WRs (85.7%).

Khalil Shakir (Bills) at Ravens

  • Bills: +2.5
  • O/U: 46.5
  • TT: 22

In the offseason, I wrote a piece on 11 stats from 2023 that matter for 2024, and here's what I had to say in it about Shakir and his 13.6 yards per target.

Regression will visit Shakir in 2024. No one can maintain the type of league-leading efficiency he displayed last year.

But WRs Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis are gone, and WRs Keon Coleman and Curtis Samuel have no established connection with QB Josh Allen.

Given that Shakir made the most of his opportunities last season — he led all qualified pass catchers with his 73.3% receiving success rate — he has a chance (even if an outside one) to emerge as Allen's No. 1 WR.

His yards-per-target mark will certainly decline, but Shakir's 2023 efficiency could portend a surge of 2024 opportunities. 

It's too early to take a victory lap, but through three weeks that analysis has looked prescient. Shakir's efficiency has declined (although his 12.0 yards per target is still obscene, as is his 78.6% receiving success rate), and he leads the team's regular contributors with a 23% target rate and 21% target share, which he has leveraged into a team-high 14-170-2 receiving.

As road underdogs, the Bills could finally have more of a pass-leaning game script, and the Ravens are No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (34.7).

The Deep Route

Rashee Rice (Chiefs -8, TT: 23.5) at Chargers: Rice has an NFL-high 24 receptions, and he easily leads the Chiefs with 288 yards and two receiving TDs. I like his matchup in the slot against CB Ja'Sir Taylor, who has allowed 9.7 yards per target this year.

Ja'Marr Chase (Bengals -4.5, TT: 26.25) at Panthers: He entered Week 3 with just 10-97-0 receiving on 11 targets, and then he went off for 6-188-2 on seven. He's still Chase — and the Panthers are No. 30 in defensive dropback SR (53.0%).

DK Metcalf (Seahawks +3.5, TT: 21.5) at Lions: With 17-262-2 receiving, Metcalf is pacing for his best season yet, and the Lions — with three new starting CBs — are No. 3 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (35.9).  

Amari Cooper (Browns +1, TT: 18) at Raiders: "Vengeance is in my heart, death in my hand, blood and revenge are hammering in my head." The Raiders are No. 4 in largest fantasy boost allowed to WRs (+7.2).

Stefon Diggs (Texans -7, TT: 26.25) vs. Jaguars: With the Texans, Diggs has played primarily in the slot, where the Jaguars might be without starting CB Darnell Savage (quad) and backup CB Jarrian Jones (shoulder)… and they'll definitely be without No. 1 CB Tyson Campbell (hamstring, IR) on the perimeter and FS Tashaun Gipson (suspension) back deep.

Terry McLaurin (Commanders +3.5, TT: 23.5) at Cardinals: McLaurin isn't averaging 3.3 yards per target anymore, is he? The Cardinals are No. 32 in defensive dropback SR (60.0%).

DeAndre Hopkins (Titans +1, TT: 18) at Dolphins: Nuk vs. CB Jalen Ramsey yet again … and the Dolphins just happen to be No. 32 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 1 WRs (126.7%). In the words of Jim Morrison: “Get together, one more time.”

Jahan Dotson (Eagles -2, TT: 23.5) at Buccaneers: WRs A.J. Brown (hamstring), DeVonta Smith (concussion), and Britain Covey (shoulder, IR) all might miss this week, so Dotson — with his 79% route rate — might accidentally get some targets. The Buccaneers are No. 29 in defensive dropback SR (52.9%).

For the rest of my favorite fantasy football plays for Week 4, sorted by position, see below:

Abbreviations

  • Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
  • Against the Spread (ATS)
  • Over/Under (O/U)
  • Team Total (TT)
  • Moneyline (ML)
  • Return on Investment (ROI)
  • Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
  • Expected Points Added (EPA)
  • Success Rate (SR)
  • Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
  • Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
  • AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
  • Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
  • Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
  • Short Down and Distance (SDD)
  • Long Down and Distance (LDD)