In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by BetMGM:

It’s never too late to learn lessons in fantasy football. Many people tend to be too optimistic when it comes to injuries.

Jonathon Brooks is the latest example. The Panthers running back was being drafted in the middle rounds of drafts with the hope he would miss a few weeks and return as the primary back for Carolina.

It’s Week 9 and Brooks has yet to play and is unlikely to go this weekend. The rookie is coming off a torn ACL and his 21-day window was activated on Oct. 16. Brooks is expected to be activated next week when the Panthers play the Giants in Germany and the following week the team has a bye.

Drafting players coming off an injury without a clear timetable for return is a major risk. Those with Brooks are finding that out now, especially if he’s taking a bench spot instead of an IR spot. Making it worse, Brooks will likely be eased in and with the way Chuba Hubbard has played, it’s unlikely Brooks will become the main back. Looking ahead, Rob Waziak has Brooks ranked as his RB40, while Hubbard sits at RB31 in his rest-of-season rankings. The takeaway? Don’t expect league-winning contribution any time soon.

While there will be instances when it works out, more often it takes longer for the player to come back and be productive. Nick Chubb has been back for two games and is averaging 2.7 yards per carry and doesn’t look good (though Pete Overzet encourages everyone to exercise a bit more patience), while T.J. Hockenson is set to make his debut this week, albeit with tempered expectations (our consensus TE18 this week).

Holding on to these players for half the fantasy season with no contributions is a big risk. Don’t make the same mistakes next year.

What else is in today’s newsletter?

  1. Week 9 Roundtable: Dissecting The Bills WR Room
  2. Watercooler: 32 Facts for 32 Teams
  3. WR/CB Matchups To Target And Avoid

Week 9 Expert Roundtable: Who Should You Target In Buffalo?

by Cooterdoodle

In this week’s roundtable, we bring in Fantasy Life’s Sheesh-Master Ian Hartitz and Jagger May (aka @JagSays) of Footballguys.  

Let’s get into it: 

Sorting Out the Bills Pass Catchers

Q: Khalil Shakir seems to catch every single ball thrown his way. YLTSI.

But how should we manage our expectations for the Bills’ pass catchers with the addition of Amari Cooper? What can we expect from Shakir and Cooper moving forward? 

Jag: This is a usage question. If you’re building a WR room like a basketball team, Amari Cooper just became this team's shooting guard. This means that Shakir will still have his role as a dude who can consistently hit 2-pointers and lay-ups. Will this lead to less volume? Maybe, but when you have an elite QB like Josh Allen, this allows for higher efficiency. Shakir should be a floor play as a WR2-3 going forward.

Ian: You aren't kidding! The man has hauled in 36 of 38 targets (94.7%) this season. The RB-esque 3.6-yard average target depth has helped matters, but regardless this is historical stuff: That catch rate is currently the highest mark since targets began being tracked back in 1992 by any WR with at least 35 targets.

Of course, the presence of Cooper and bully Keon Coleman do limit the ceiling here, but that doesn't mean Shakir can't continue producing something close to WR3-caliber numbers. Josh Allen has thrown for 323 and 283 yards with four combined TDs in two weeks since Cooper joined the squad; that's more than enough production for multiple WRs to eat in fantasy land.

Click here to see how our rankers are sifting through the Buffalo WR room!

More Questions Ahead Of Week 9

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The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of football nerds:

👀 32 Facts for 32 Teams. Everything you need to prep for Week 9.

👨‍💻 College football today as an appetizer for tomorrow. Player props for today’s slate.

🤝 Focusing on just NFL this weekend instead? We have you covered, too.

 

 

Upgrade Cooper Kupp, Downgrade JSN?

by Chris Allen

Week 9 is here, and that means it's time to examine the best—and worst—wide receiver matchups for fantasy football. 

This week, we look at six matchups fantasy managers should target, avoid, or consider for their sneaky upside in Week 9.

Matchups to Target

Rams WR Cooper Kupp at Seattle

Cooper Kupp’s return to the field was a welcomed sight by both Rams fans and everyone rostering him. And yet, managers with Puka Nacua were probably happier by the end of TNF.

But don’t just look at the yardage column in the box score. Shoot, look at their fantasy point totals. Even with the spotlight on Nacua, these two finished just two points apart in PPR leagues. Per our Utilization Report game logs, Matthew Stafford was looking to his breakfast mate nearly as much as the sophomore WR.

  • Target Share: 23.5% (Kupp), 26.5% (Nacua)
  • Play-Action Target Rate: 25.0%, 22.0%
  • Target Share in Obvious Passing Situations: 33.0%, 17.0%

In other words, Kupp’s workload is intact. Plus, we can expect him (and Nacua) to increase their route rates (82.0% and 65.0%) after the extra time to rest between games. And the Rams should be due for some regression with regards to how they’re scoring touchdowns.

Heading into Week 8, L.A. had scored 61.5% of their touchdowns on the ground. Yay for Kyren Williams managers. However, they’ve maintained their high passing rate (fifth in neutral passing rate on early downs) even without their top two wideouts available. As they continue to move the ball, we should expect Stafford and his receivers to be the beneficiaries of finding the end zone. Luckily, they face Seattle this weekend.

The Seahawks' secondary has allowed at least one passing TD in every game over the last month. Josh Allen, Brock Purdy, and Daniel Jones had multi-score outings. But, specific to Kupp, Seattle has an issue with its interior defense. They’ve surrendered the 12th-most PPG to slot receivers since Week 5. Given Kupp’s usual alignment on the inside (64.9% slot snap rate in Week 8), he has the scheme and matchup to vault back into the WR1 conversation in Week 9.

Matchups to Avoid

Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs. Rams

  • Allen Lazard
  • Jayden Reed
  • Darnell Mooney
  • Jauan Jennings
  • Tee Higgins
  • Rashod Bateman

Whoops, I’m sorry. 

I started listing off players who have scored more fantasy points (74.9) on fewer targets (55) than Jaxon Smith-Njigba. I could keep going, but you get the idea.

Seattle ranks third in early-down passing rate, and Geno Smith is top 10 in passing success rate. And still, JSN is averaging the same amount of PPG as Xavier Worthy. At a 6.5 UR Score, his opportunities and production compare well to players like Courtland Sutton and Ladd McConkey. Plus, going up against the Rams won’t make things any easier.

  • FPPG Allowed to WRs: 25th
  • FPPG Allowed to Slot WRs: 32nd
  • Total Passing TDs Allowed: 28th

Even without Aaron Donald, L.A. has found a way to keep opposing offenses at bay. And, critically, slot WRs have been held in check despite facing premiere route runners like Justin Jefferson (6 yards from the slot) and Brock Bowers (44) in recent weeks. There’s some optimism DK Metcalf will return, offering another target for the Rams’ secondary. But even if he doesn’t, the offense sagged without him on the field, making Smith-Njigba tough to start in Week 9.

More WR Matchups To Target Or Avoid