The chaos never stops once the regular season gets underway. Luckily, we have a few more data points to consider after yet another week of NFL action.
But the defensive matchups should always be a part of our start-sit decisions. To help, I've got another batch of WRs to target, two under-the-radar options and a couple of guys I'm worried about for Week 4.
Matchups to Target
Mike Evans vs. Quinyon Mitchell
I’m still recommending Mike Evans, but I have to acknowledge his limited participation in practice on Wednesday (knee). Coincidentally, I also help manage our injury tracker, so I’ll be watching Evans’s status ahead of Sunday. However, if he’s healthy, fantasy managers should see him back in the top 24 by the end of the week.
With a WR like Evans, it’s important to contextualize his usage. He’s a boundary receiver through and through. Sure, you might see him in the slot from time to time (27% snap rate), but at 6-foot-5, Tampa’s WR1 fits the prototypical X-receiver mold. His air yards per target have been 10 or more in two of three games this season. His route deployment and age (31) can lead to up-and-down games. And we got a taste of that last week.
Evans saw Partick Surtain (arguably the best CB in the league) on 24 of his 32 out wide. The results (one catch for eight yards) shouldn’t be surprising. But Evans’ peripherals are encouraging.
Tampa’s all-time receiving leader still garnered the second-most air yards on the team. Even though Baker Mayfield didn’t look Evans' way as often as in previous weeks (season-low 9.4% target share), when he did, they were in the intermediate part of the field. And after starting the season with a 20% target share in two weeks, Week 3 should look like a bad matchup rather than a complete changing of the guard. Plus, this week’s matchup lines up for him to bounce back in a big way.
Even after keeping New Orleans’ offense under wraps in Week 3, the Eagles have allowed over 100 passing yards per game on throws along the boundary. Derek Carr linked up with Chris Olave for three such passes, and Kirk Cousins generated two explosives to Darnell Mooney in the same area.
Evans has lined up as the left WR on 73.7% of his snaps and will likely draw Quinyon Mitchell. Mitchell gave up a deep shot to Jayden Reed in Week 1 and multiple catches to Olave in Week 2. Let’s monitor Evans’ health, but he’s a prime rebound candidate for Week 4.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs. Amik Robertson
Normally, I’d say a 16-target performance followed by a game with just three would warrant some concern. But the Seahawks had a two-score lead by the end of the first quarter. Meanwhile, Miami had just 55 yards of total offense. Regardless, Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s underlying metrics tell a favorable story.
Week 3 was the third week with the sophomore receiver playing over Tyler Lockett in 12-personnel packages. Unlike last year, it was DK Metcalf and Smith-Njigba on the field when OC Ryan Grubb added more protection at the line for Geno Smith. And, like the week before, Smith was looking to his young WR to set up easy third-down conversions.
With the former Buckeye primarily manning the slot (76.8% slot rate), the second-year wideout sets up to have the best matchup for their primetime game in Detroit.
The Lions rank seventh in pass rush win rate with Aidan Hutchinson sitting atop the leaderboard in sacks. Accordingly, teams have responded with quicker throws. Passers average the ninth-fastest time to throw when facing Detroit’s front. Plus, they’ve gone to the interior to give their receivers chances to create after the catch. Opposing offenses have dropped 342 yards from the slot alone (third-most).
In what should be a back-and-forth contest, Smith-Njigba’s rise in usage and interior matchup should boost him into WR2 consideration for Week 4.
Sneaky Matchups
Michael Wilson vs. Mike Sainristil/Benjamin St-Juste
Let’s start here.
I’ll be the eternal optimist and assume Marvin Harrison Jr. plays (read, I have Marvin Harrison Jr. on multiple rosters, and I’ll tilt off the planet if he misses this weekend). However, the phenom from Ohio State isn’t the only WR who has been able to earn looks from Kyler Murray.
- Week 1: 6.5% (target share), 5.7% (targets per route run)
- Week 2: 9.5%, 10.5%
- Week 3: 26.5%, 26.5%
And for those assuming Michael Wilson’s spike in usage is due to Trey McBride’s concussion, think again. McBride was catching passes until the end of the game. Meanwhile, Wilson saw just two fewer targets than Harrison.
Plus, Sunday was Wilson’s first game with catches from the slot, indicating he’s a larger part of the game plan. Coupled with McBride’s potential absence this weekend, Wilson has instant flex appeal against the Commanders.
I’m using Evans as a comp because he’s a better stylistic proxy than Ja’Marr Chase or Malik Nabers. Both of which smoked the Commanders' outside corners. Regardless of whether Wilson sees Mike Sainristil or Benjamin St-Juste (last week, St-Juste had a 55/45 split on either side of the field, deviating from his typical right-corner designation), neither has offered much resistance.
The Commanders have surrendered 29.6 PPR PPG to outside receivers (second-most). And it’s not like enemy passing attacks are applying a “death by 1000 cuts” approach. They’re averaging an absurd 11.7 air yards per attempt. After three weeks of increased usage and the possibility of one fewer option for Murray, Wilson lines up as a bench stash worth starting in Week 4.
Darnell Mooney vs. Alontae Taylor
Honestly, starting Darnell Mooney doesn’t feel all that sneaky.
He has just one less target than Drake London on the season, with more yards than Atlanta’s supposed WR1. And yet, Mooney’s roster rate sits at a lowly 38.0%. In any case, for those needing some help off the wire, I can make the case for the WR2 for the Falcons.
- Week 1 (TPRR): 10.7% (Mooney), 36.8% (McCloud)
- Week 2: 22.6%, 16.1%
- Week 3: 26.7%, 9.7%
We’ve seen less and less of Ray-Ray McCloud after his team-leading, seven-target outing in Week 1. I’d call him the team’s slot man, but Mooney has gradually taken over the interior role, too. His slot snaps and interior target share have steadily been on the rise since the season opener.
So not only is Mooney working downfield, but he's being schemed up with looks across the middle. Through three weeks, he has the highest rate of play-action targets for Atlanta (38.9%). No other WR is over 15%. All of which bode well for the former Bears WR.
New Orleans has problems on offense to handle, and their defense has also been suspect. Only the Rams have allowed more receiving yards per game to outside WRs than the Saints. In addition, they’ve given up the ninth-most fantasy points per game on play-action concepts.
On volume alone, Mooney deserves consideration in most league formats. The defensive matchup should be the tiebreaker to give him the start for this weekend’s games.
Matchups to Avoid
Garrett Wilson vs. Patrick Surtain
I try to use a player’s broader usage before characterizing him as a good or bad play. Sometimes, volume can overcome what we think would be a tough battle against a good corner. But I can’t argue with these numbers.
However, my first instinct was to combat any negativity toward Garrett Wilson with where he runs his routes. I figured OC Nathaniel Hackett would move his WR1 around. And he mostly has.
- Left Wide Reciever (snap rate): 41.1%
- Right Wide Receiver: 31.0%
- Slot: 28.0%
But, critically, we need Wilson away from Patrick Surtain. He’s played just 11 coverage snaps from the inside. Ideally, Wilson’s interior target share would reflect his snap rate (i.e., balanced usage all over the field). But Aaron Rodgers hasn’t looked Wilson’s way in those situations.
- Week 1 (slot target rate): 42.9%
- Week 2: 28.6%
- Week 3: 16.7%
Instead of Wilson, Tyler Conklin has gotten into the mix (15% slot target rate). And the journeyman TE, Allen Lazard and Mike Williams are all siphoning red-zone looks away from Wilson. While Rodgers insists they need to find ways to get his WR1 involved, a bad defensive matchup and a negative schematic trend should have fantasy managers tempering expectations for Wilson in Week 4.
Demarcus Robinson vs. Jaylon Johnson/Tyrique Stevenson
On the one hand, Demarcus Robinson was on the field for 93.1% of Matthew Stafford’s dropbacks last week. HC Sean McVay used 12-personnel packages on 34.5% of their plays (a massive shift from Week 1), but Robinson was out there for all of them. He even secured the largest air-yard share (41.8%). But his role isn’t as fantasy-friendly as it was back in Week 1.
- Week 1 (slot target rate): 32.4%
- Week 2: 25.0%
- Week 3: 16.0%
The bet we made in the offseason was that Robinson would be the third WR. Cooper Kupp or Puka Nacua could draw top coverage from opposing defenses. Robinson could make do with a weaker slot corner or safety.
Now, being thrust into the WR1 role, he’s on the outside. Robinson didn’t even earn a target from the interior in the Rams’ stunning victory over the 49ers. Now, he’ll face another tough out against the Bears’ corners.
Jaylon Johnson has forced two interceptions in three games. Tyrique Stevenson, who plays opposite Johnson, has one. Nico Collins is the only WR who has gotten the best of either outside CB. And at 30 years old, Robinson doesn’t have the speed or power to work through contact like Houston’s WR1.
I’ll never count out a receiver attached to a McVay-Stafford offense, but I’m looking elsewhere on rosters where I have Robinson for this week.
