The chaos never stops early in the season. Luckily, we have a few more data points to consider after yet another week of NFL action. 

But the defensive matchups should always be a part of our start-sit decisions. To help, I've got another batch of WRs to target, along with under-the-radar options and a couple of guys I'm worried about for Week 5.

Wide Receiver Matchups to Target in Week 5

Ravens WR Zay Flowers at Bengals

Zay Flowers is Baltimore’s unquestioned WR1 with a 26.0% target share. At 24.9% of the team’s air yards, Flowers has earned the volume and looks downfield to warrant WR2 consideration. In addition, the sophomore wideout has caught more passes from the slot (31.7% compared to 23.0% in ’23). The shift suggests an emphasis by OC Todd Monken to highlight Flowers’ speed after the catch. In either case, his Week 5 matchup should have us all looking to the Ravens’ WR1 for fantasy production.

Of course, Cincinnati’s largest defensive issue is their defensive front. Enemy rushing attacks have averaged the seventh-most yards against the Bengals compared to the rest of the league (145.5). However, their secondary is equally susceptible to big plays. 

Rashee Rice dunked on Cam Taylor-Britt for a long score in Week 3. Both Diontae Johnson and Xavier Legette found the end zone when aligned on the inside. Both match how the team has deployed Flowers, giving him added appeal in a game with one of the highest projected totals for Week 5.

49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk vs. Cardinals

If you can, buy low on Brandon Aiyuk before this weekend.

During the 49ers’ Week 3 matchup against the Rams, Aiyuk’s opportunity soared to a third of the team’s targets and 30.2% of the air yards. He maintained the lead in air yards when Deebo Samuel and Goerge Kittle returned to the lineup. Through four weeks, no SF pass-catcher has had more passes thrown their way than Aiyuk.

Admittedly, we’re betting on the come here. Of Aiyuk’s 289 air yards (second-most on the squad), he’s converted just 57.8%. His 83.9% snap rate from the perimeter and 12.0 aDOT make his production less consistent. But he doesn’t have the Jets, Vikings, and Patriots’ secondaries to contend with this weekend.

The Cardinals have allowed the 12th-most fantasy points to opposing WRs this season. They’ve allowed at least one explosive gain each week, and both Terry McLaurin and Amon-Ra St. Brown (high-end route runners) found the end zone against Arizona’s perimeter coverage. Our only concern is Kyler Murray and if he can keep up on offense and force the 49ers to throw the entire game.

Sleeper WR Matchups for Week 5

Packers WR Romeo Doubs at Rams

If you got Dontayvion Wicks off waivers, congrats. Christian Watson’s (mild?) high ankle sprain elevated Green Bay’s WR4 to WR2 status in an instant. Wicks secured 36.0% of Jordan Love’s air yards in just three quarters.

But I’ve got my eye on Romeo Doubs.

The Packers slot guys (Wicks and Jayden Reed) carved up the Vikings defense to the tune of 217 yards and three TDs. But Doubs matched Reed in targets (8) with more air yards than Reed. Green Bay’s perimeter WR got the most looks out of play-action concepts and was still used as a “safety blanket” for Love when he is under duress (second-most targets). Plus, L.A.’s pass coverage has been susceptible to outside WRs in past games.

Doubs’ route rate isn’t dependent on personnel groupings. He has the highest snap rate in two TE sets. And Doubs only has one fewer target than Reed in the two games with Love healthy. With all the attention on Reed and Wicks, I’m looking to Doubs for a big game in Week 5.

Rams WR Demarcus Robinson at Packers 

Honestly, I initially wanted to write up Jordan Whittington as the Rams WR to look to as a desperation play. Future me is probably insisting I should’ve stuck with my first read. But let’s go where the data leads us.

Robinson has maintained 93.1% and 87.5% route rates with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua sidelined. The results (69 scoreless yards) aren’t what we expected. But there’s much-needed context to the downtick in production.

  • Weeks 1-2: 29.3% (slot snap rate), 25.9% (slot target rate)
  • Weeks 3-4: 26.3%, 5.0%

That last number is the killer. Whittington and Tutu Atwell have bogarted over half of the layup looks from Matthew Stafford. It’s left Robinson (literally) out. But a variety of WRs have thrived against the Packers’ coverage unit.

Am I saying Robinson is as good as A.J. Brown? No.

However, his downfield deployment (23.7-yard aDOT through Weeks 3 and 4) and matchup on the outside invite some positive variance. And as the Packers struggle to generate pressure (league-average in pressure and sack rate), a few deep darts to Robinson could be all you need to find a WR3 on the waiver wire.

The Worst WR Matchups for Week 5

Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill at Patriots

The drop in Tyreek Hill’s environment goes without saying. Without Tua Tagovailoa under center, Miami’s offense has hit rock bottom.

  • Plays per Game: 29th 
  • Yards per Game: 31st
  • EPA per Play: 32nd
  • Red-Zone Plays: 27th 

The Dolphins have produced three (3!) first downs in two weeks. Their QBs have taken more sacks (8). But Hill’s problem runs even deeper than just who’s throwing him the ball.

  • Hill (target share): 23.1% (w/out Tua), 24.7% (w/ Tua)
  • Waddle: 21.2%, 12.3%

Despite Hill playing in the slot more (theoretically creating easier throws for his QB), the volume has spread out between him and Jaylen Waddle. Coupled with De’Von Achane’s 15.4% target rate, Tyreek now has fewer opportunities in a worse passing game. With byes, it might be tough to bench him. But against the Patriots’ defensive front (12th in blitz rate), fantasy managers will have to (again) temper expectations for Hill.

Bills WR Khalil Shakir at Texans

To be fair, with Josh Allen as your QB, explosive plays can happen at any time. We saw this play out in Week 4.

Shakir’s 19.4% target share makes him the Bills’ WR1. However, for reference, Brandin Cooks has the same number of looks on the season (19). Ray-Ray McCloud (20 prior to Thursday Night Football) and Greg Dortch (20) have more. It’s not to say they’re better, but Shakir’s margin for error becomes slimmer. And the Texans’ interior coverage doesn’t offer much hope in terms of allowing production.

  • Colts Slot WRs (combined yardage): 0
  • Bears Slot WRs: 37
  • Vikings Slot WRs: 41
  • Jaguars Slot WRs: 78

I totaled them to emphasize the stranglehold Houston has on the interior. Yes, teams have passed for TDs to wideouts running from the slot. But no one has found the end zone from farther out than the 8-yard line (Christian Kirk, Week 4). With the Bills insisting on a Packers-like approach to their aerial attack (i.e., using multiple options), Shakir gets a downgrade for Week 5.