The NFL turned up the difficulty for us after Week 5. Not only do we have the usual (read: brutal, horrific) task of dealing with injuries, but bye weeks add a new wrinkle to our decisions.
So, circumstances outside of your control might force some of these guys into your lineup. In either case, let’s dig into some wide receiver versus defensive matchups that caught my eye for this weekend.
Wide Receiver Matchups to Target in Week 6
Eagles WR A.J. Brown vs. Browns
We haven’t seen Brown in action since Week 1. On the one hand, fantasy managers with the Eagles’ WR1 on their roster have been itching to get him off their bench. On the flip side, there may be some hesitation regarding his workload. But if it’s anything like Philadelphia’s season opener, we shouldn’t have anything to worry about.
- Target Share: 34.5%
- Air Yard Share: 48.1%
- Targets per Route Run: 25.6%
Brown’s 32.5% slot rate is a career-high since coming to the Eagles. But Jalen Hurts has typically looked to him on the outside. Regardless, WR1s have been a problem for Cleveland’s secondary.
- CeeDee Lamb: 10-61-0
- Brian Thomas Jr.: 4-94-0
- Malik Nabers: 12-78-2
- Terry McLaurin: 8-112-0
Terry McLaurin slid by Denzel Ward on a go route for an explosive play on Sunday. BTJ did something similar a few weeks prior on a deep post. The Browns' perimeter coverage can be beaten, especially with mobile QBs evading their pass rush. With Brown healthy, he should be a top option for Week 6.
Cardinals WR Marvin Harrison Jr. at Packers
Now, normally, when I start each section, I’m providing complementary context to a player. In other words, I’m giving reasons outside of their defensive matchup to start them. However, with Marvin Harrison Jr., it’s not that simple.
- Pre-snap Motion Rate: 3.3% (3rd among ARI WRs)
- Short-Area Target Rate: 14.1% (3rd)
- YAC per Reception: 2.4 (3rd)
Arizona’s rookie doesn’t have it easy. Based on the above metrics, OC Drew Petzing essentially lines up Harrison Jr. on the outside and asks him to out-athlete opposing corners every rep. He’s played the fewest snaps out of the slot. Even on his best day, a small percentage of his targets come on crossing routes, allowing him to create after the catch. But it’s not all bad.
The Ohio State product has earned over 20.0% of Kyler Murray’s targets in four straight games. Along with hogging a majority of the air yards (47.6% since Week 2), Harrison is still the Cardinals’ WR1. So, I’ll admit his production can be volatile. But a better matchup should make us (and Kyler) happy, even without a schematic shift. And Week 6 offers that environment for the rookie.
- Week 1: A.J. Brown, 7-108-1
- Week 2: Alec Pierce, 7-56-1
- Week 3: DeAndre Hopkins, 5-38-1
- Week 4: Justin Jefferson, 5-54-1
- Week 5: Demarcus Robinson, 4-28-1
Without CB Jaire Alexander, the Packers have allowed a TD to an outside receiver every week this season. Overall, they’re 30th in dropback success rate allowed, with teams averaging 231.6 passing yards per game (23rd-most). Despite the lack of creativity in getting Harrison the ball, going against the Packers gives him the edge for fantasy in Week 6.
Sleeper WR Matchups for Week 6
Bears WR Keenan Allen vs. Jaguars
The more I think about it, recommending Keenan Allen is a tacit nod toward starting Caleb Williams. Don’t look now, but the rookie QB is figuring out what it means to be a passer at the pro level.
- Week 2: 35.0% (pressure-to-sack rate), 8.3% (scramble rate), -0.34 (EPA per play)
- Week 3: 30.8%, 1.8%, -0.23
- Week 4: 27.3%, 0.0%, 0.15
- Week 5: 16.7%, 14.3%, 0.35
The metrics above are why we need to look past box scores. A 157-yard outing in Week 4 bookended by games over 300 yards gives an air of inconsistency. But for the rookie passer, we don’t just want a bunch of positive plays. We’d like to see him avoid negative plays.
Part of the allure surrounding Caleb Williams was his ability to create out of structure. Instead, we got a triggerman that would kill drives. Now, he’s extending them. And with a week back in action, Keenan Allen looks like he’s ready to deliver a WR1 performance.
- Week 4: 84.6% (route rate), 13.6% (target share), 4.8% (air yard share
- Week 5: 91.4%, 21.4%, 22.7%
Even after playing 52.8% of his snaps from the slot in Week 4, Allen didn’t see a pass thrown his way from the interior. Williams fixed that in Week 5 (15.8% slot target rate). Allen’s bump in usage has (slightly) come at the expense of Rome Odunze, but both are in good spots for Week 6.
The Jaguars rank 28th in pressure rate, setting Williams up for another positive day at the office. Plus, slot WRs have beaten Jacksonville’s interior coverage over the last three weeks: Josh Downs (9-64-0), Stefon Diggs (3-30-0), Khalil Shakir (6-72-1). With Allen’s opportunities on the rise, Williams should be looking to the vet for production in Week 6.
Titans WR DeAndre Hopkins vs. Colts
OK. Did I go back and look at old highlights of DeAndre Hopkins torching the Colts’ defense? It’s entirely possible.
But it’s not 2019, and Hopkins’s situation is different. Actually, let’s start there.
Will Levis was a full participant to start the Titans’ week of practice. Yes, I realize he’s given us some of the best memes, but let’s look at his schedule to start the season.
- Week 1: CHI (2nd-fewest points allowed to QBs)
- Week 2: NYJ (1st)
- Week 3: GB (20th)
- Week 4: MIA (3rd)
Levis has seen pressure on 30.0% of his dropbacks in every start this season. To boot, three of the four secondaries he’s faced have allowed fewer than 180 passing yards per game through five weeks. So, if the Titans have an extra week to rest and prepare, and they get to face the coverage unit giving up the fourth-most yards to opposing passers (262.2), I’ll bet on Levis’ WR1.
- Week 2: 7.4% (target share), 5.8% (air yard share)
- Week 3: 20.6%, 31.2%
- Week 4: 22.2%, 52.8%
Hopkins has displaced Calvin Ridley as the team’s primary pass-game option. The former Texans’ WR has been at a +30.0% TPRR rate in two consecutive games after missing Week 1 due to his knee injury sustained during the offseason. Even with the concerns regarding Levis’ accuracy, the matchup and workload for Hopkins put him in FLEX territory for Week 6.
Worst WR Matchups for Week 6
Texans WR Tank Dell at Patriots
As per usual, Matt Harmon hits the nail on the head regarding what’s going on with Tank Dell this year.
We don’t know for sure if Dell’s rehab or offseason calamities have caused him to lose a step in Year 2. But his drop in play can’t be due to adding Stefon Diggs alone.
- Air Yard Share: 36.5% (2023), 26.9% (2024)
- TPRR: 24.3%, 15.9%
- YPRR: 2.24, 1.13
Even last week, with Nico Collins out for half of the game, Dell was at a 9.3% air yard share. He earned just one target. Without Collins, the small speedster played 100% of the snaps on the outside. Unfortunately, that’s where New England does their best work from a coverage standpoint.
The Patriots have allowed just one touchdown from the outside so far this season. No perimeter receiver has produced more than 70 yards. Xavier Hutchinson, Diggs, and Robert Woods are best used from the inside, leaving Dell (literally) as the odd man out. Without an easy path to efficient targets, it’s hard to see Dell overcoming his situation this weekend.
Panthers WR Diontae Johnson vs. Falcons
On the one hand, at least Diontae Johnson (likely) has the better of the two Panthers’ QBs under center this weekend. However, I have a few (small-sample-sized) concerns.
- Target Share: 32.5% (Week 4), 18.2% (Week 5)
- Air Yard Share: 52.6%, 20.6%
- Slot Target Rate: 37.5%, 20.0%
Johnson has been working through groin and ankle issues since Week 3. Accordingly, his TPRR rate, air yards, and even routes have been on the decline since then. Without another established wideout to take on top coverage from enemy teams, Johnson’s injuries and usage have capped his output. And with Sunday’s matchup against the Falcons in mind, let’s see which WRs have been able to produce against Atlanta.
- Mike Evans: 5-39-1 (production from the outside only)
- Rashid Shaheed: 6-67-0
- Rashee Rice: 7-58-0
- DeVonta Smith: 7-61-0
Mike Evans wins with size, and Rashid Shaheed has long speed at his disposal. Neither tool is in Johnson’s bag. Rashee Rice and DeVonta Smith fall into a similar archetype, but both have either a better QB or a more efficient offensive environment. Without either to fall back on, fantasy managers should temper expectations for Johnson this weekend.
