Week 7 is upon us, and the drama came at us early in the week. We have big-name WRs on new teams as franchises try to re-position themselves for the season. 

But don’t let the excitement distract you. We’ve got fantasy rosters to set! As always, I’ve found some of the best (and worst) defensive matchups to target for wide receivers heading into Week 7. 

Matchups to Target

Falcons WR Drake London vs. Seahawks

Remember back in Week 1 when Drake London only had three targets?

Neither do I. Well, I kind of do.

The Falcons’ turnaround has been one of the underrated storylines of the season. From running just 50 plays in their season opener to having top-10 marks in play volume (6th) and dropback rate (9th), Atlanta’s offense has met our offseason expectations. And Drake London’s role within the passing game was one of our biggest bets coming into the year.

We knew London was talented after posting admirable efficiency numbers (22nd in 2023, 11th in ’22) with horrendous QB play. Now, he has the passer to amplify his opportunities within the offense.

Our Utilization Comparison tool emphasizes my point. London has seen more targets on a per-game and per-route basis than Ja’Marr Chase. Plus, based on the last four years of data, WRs with a UR score of 8.3 have finished inside the top 12 67% of the time. So, if we should be treating him like a WR1, let’s look at how his brethren have fared against the Seahawks.

  • Week 6: Deebo Samuel, 5-102-1
  • Week 5: Darius Slayton, 11-122-1
  • Week 4: Amon-Ra St. Brown, 6-45-1

Admittedly, these three wideouts are not alike. But each possesses traits that speak to London’s game. Deebo and Darius can generate chunk plays either across the middle or down the sideline. Over the last three weeks, London’s six explosive gains sit in the top 12 amongst all WRs. 

Or, like the Sun God, the 6-foot-4 route technician can beat CBs over the head with in or out-breaking routes to keep the chains moving (ninth in YPRR since Week 3). And with Seattle’s defense still nursing some injuries to its defenders, London should notch another WR1 result in Week 7.

Commanders WR Terry McLaurin vs. Panthers

Typically, you’ll see analysts (i.e., me) referencing air yards as an indicator (amongst many) of whether a WR is worth our attention. Earning targets is a skill. Hoarding looks downfield is something slightly different — in a good way! Regardless, Terry McLaurin’s usage in this area lines up some of the best in the league.

  1. A. J. Brown – 54% air yard share
  2. Malik Nabers – 52%
  3. Terry McLaurin – 52%
  4. Rashid Shaheed – 50%
  5. Justin Jefferson – 49%

OK. So, after a brief appearance by the Horizontal Raid, McLaurin’s aDOT has been below 10 yards just once. Coincidentally, he’ll be facing a secondary that has had trouble defending the deep ball throughout the season.

  • Fantasy PPG allowed on passes of 20 air yards or more: 4th-most
  • Total yards allowed: 11th-most 
  • Defensive EPA per play: 6th-worst

Week 6 was the first game Carolina didn’t watch a receiver come down with a big catch. I guess DJ Moore doing it twice the week beforehand evens things out. In either case, the Panthers haven’t been able to put together a strong enough pass rush to keep enemy QBs to the short area of the field. However, even if they got to Jayden Daniels, it’d play into McLaurin’s hands.

  • Target Share: 30.3% (Daniels pressured), 24.8% (not pressured)
  • Air Yards per Target: 24.8, 11.1

So, Carolina, please get after Washington’s QB. I’m sure it’ll work out fine. 

Sneaky Matchups

Packers WR Christian Watson vs. Texans

Box score scouts will tell you to pick up and start Romeo Doubs this week. The man caught two TDs last week. Passes like these usually work out all the time, anyway.

Sidenote: Look at how “happy” Doubs was during the celly. At least crack a smile, my man!

Jokes aside, Doubs’s deployment will typically invite volatility. Even last week, he only saw one target from the slot. Meanwhile, Christian Watson (in his first game back) took on a role much more conducive to producing fantasy points.

  • Air Yard Share: 36.0% (Watson), 26.0% (Doubs)
  • Play-Action Target Rate: 50.0%, 25.0%
  • End-Zone Targets: 33.0%, 0.0%

Jayden Reed’s ankle injury opened up the interior of the offense for more GB pass-catchers to get involved. Watson took the majority of the slot work, putting him in an advantageous spot for Week 7. 

The Texans (ninth-lowest dropback success rate allowed) have put a cap on downfield shots. However, teams have found ways to attack the inside using crossing routes. The weakness fits Watson’s skill set in what should be a back-and-forth matchup between the Packers and Texans.

Chargers WR Ladd McConkey vs. Cardinals

I’m labeling this one as “sneaky” because the last time we saw Ladd McConkey he was on and off the field due to a head injury. The medical evaluators did clear him to play, but he sustained other nicks and bruises throughout the contest. Put simply, McConkey’s health status may be in question. But his role on the team shouldn’t be.

I’ll lean on the Utilization Comparison tool again to frame McConkey’s volume. While Michael Pittman (slightly) grades out as the better option, the rookie isn’t too far behind. Even better, their situations aren’t all that different. On the season, the Chargers and Colts have the same dropback over expected rate of -4.0% (even with Joe Flacco’s short stint as the starter). In either case, McConkey’s draw against the Cardinals’ secondary sets up as a must-play.

Arizona is giving up the sixth-most PPG points to opposing WRs through six weeks. The last three WR1s to face them have averaged 20.3 points (Doubs, Aiyuk, McLaurin). Quentin Johnston has already started the week with a missed practice, leaving more looks for McConkey. Even with most folks looking to the Chargers’ backfield for production, McConkey’s connection with Justin Herbert should be on our radars for Week 7.

Matchups to Avoid

Jaguars WR Christian Kirk vs. Patriots

I’ll be honest. I don’t know what the Jaguars are doing with Christian Kirk.

The hope was with Evan Engram back, Jacksonville would revert to more three-receiver sets. The change would enable more snaps, routes, and targets for Kirk. And yet, it was business as usual for the Jags’ slot guy.

Now, on the season, he has a UR Score of 5.9. By this time last season, he was at 7.0. You can look at the two numbers and say one is lower than the other, so Kirk must be bad. But I can give the score some more context.

  • WRs with a 7.0 UR Score (+/- 0.1): DJ Moore (7.1), Wan’Dale Robinson (6.9)
  • WRs with a 5.9 UR Score (+/- 0.1): Ladd McConkey (6.0), Jalen Tolbert (5.8)

The range of outcomes for ’23 Kirk was a high-end WR2 to a top-tier WR3. With his current utilization, WRs have averaged 10.9 PPR PPG. Even worse, it doesn’t look like his situation is changing.

Brian Thomas Jr. ascending into the WR1 spot makes sense. But Gabe Davis still taking on 23% of the team’s targets doesn’t. With the continued dysfunction on offense, I’d look at other FLEX options in better situations.

Steelers WR George Pickens vs. Jets

First off, no, I’m not worried about how many snaps George Pickens may or may not see.

After HC Mike Tomlin gave his “rep manage” speech regarding George Pickens’s usage, Pickens was back up to 85% of the team’s routes in Week 6. Plus, he commanded a 35% target share. Again, earning targets is a skill, and Calvin Austin (or anyone else on the Steelers’ depth chart) isn’t there yet. However, a potential QB switch is a concern.

  • (MoF) EPA per DB: 11th (Fields in 2024), 23rd (Wilson over last three seasons)
  • EPA per Scramble: 14th, 15th
  • EPA per Play Under Pressure: 10th, 9th 

In the aggregate, Russell Wilson doesn’t provide a significant upgrade over Justin Fields. The former Buckeye is essentially a younger version of Wilson. Both can hit shots downfield or create once the pocket breaks down. But Wilson isn’t as fleet of foot as he was five or six years ago. Either way, we’ll see how healed his calf is if he makes his debut this weekend.

Fields just saw defenders in his face on 62.5% of his dropbacks. And the Jets have limited perimeter receivers to one TD and a measly 30.7 yards per game. Pickens’s deployment already put him in the “boom-bust” category. The potential switch at QB and defensive matchup should lower all of our expectations.