Week 10 is here, and that means it's time to examine the best — and worst — wide receiver matchups for fantasy football.
This week, we look at six matchups fantasy managers should target, avoid, or consider for their sneaky upside in Week 10.
Matchups to Target
Falcons WR Darnell Mooney at Saints
Before we get into Darnell Mooney’s matchup, let’s look at his usage.
Some see Mooney as an all-or-nothing option because of where he plays (primarily on the outside) and his aDOT (over 10 yards in three of his last five games). It’s like he’s back in Chicago.
But we can see that his routes, targets, and air yards in the sample are more in line with a mid-range WR2. On the season, he’s seen fewer than five looks from Kirk Cousins just twice. Now, with Drake London nursing a hip injury, Mooney will have the offensive situation and draw a defensive secondary that sets him up for another big week.
Mooney is lined up on the left side of the field on over 60% of his snaps. His typical alignment pairs him with Saints CB Alontae Taylor, as starter Kool-Aid McKinstry continues to miss time with a hamstring issue. Taylor has given up yardage totals of 76, 65 (and a touchdown), and 47 in his last three games. And it was a speedy WR that beat him for the score. Given Mooney’s usual utility to the offense and his assignment for Sunday, we should have WR1 expectations for the Falcons’ WR2.
Texans WR Tank Dell vs. Lions
Dell didn’t make it into the end zone, but we did see the schematic shift necessary to keep him in our starting lineups.
Even without Nico Collins, Dell continued to falter as a target earner in the Texans’ offense. It didn’t help that CJ Stroud was consistently under pressure. OC Bobby Slowik pinning Dell, his best playmaker, to the perimeter made things worse. However, if necessity is the mother of invention, Slowik figured out how to get his best (only?) WR involved.
- Target Share: 31.0% (Week 9), 19.8% (w/out Collins), 11.6% (w/ Collins and Diggs)
- Slot Snap Rate: 30.4%, 20.3%,26.1%
- Slot Target Rate: 27.3%, 27.8%, 6.9%
Dell got more high-percentage throws before Houston’s bye than at any point in the season. And Collins’ status is still unclear. If Dell is the lone pass-catcher for Houston, he has two paths to another productive outing. On the outside, he’ll see Carlton Davis, who has earned a 47.5 coverage grade per PFF over the last three weeks. Or, if we see more of Tank in the slot, Amik Robertson (surrendered 117 yards and a score since Week 7) will be his guy.
With Dell’s usage continuing to evolve, let’s look at Week 9 as a positive step forward rather than a fluke heading into a game with the fourth-highest total in Week 10 (49.5).
Sneaky Matchups
Rams WR Demarcus Robinson vs. Dolphins
I wonder if a guy who just caught two TD passes (one was the game-winner) is actually a sneaky play. But his second score was in OT. Everyone’s focus is on the guys around him. So, yeah, Demarcus Robinson could be an under-the-radar option. Besides, having Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua back is something of a boon for the veteran WR.
- Weeks 1-2: 14.0% (Target Share), 14.3 (aDOT), 60.0% (Catchable Target Rate)
- Weeks 3-7: 12.0%, 19.9, 53.0%
- Weeks 8-9: 15.0%, 17.4, 73.0%
To be clear, Robinson is the WR3 on the offense. Even without Kupp or Nacua, Robinson’s 12.0% target share dips into WR4 territory. But look at the aDOT and catchable target rate. Without Nacua, Robinson was running the deeper routes to make room for Jordan Whittington, Tyler Johnson, or Tutu Atwell. Robinson got fewer and more volatile looks. Coincidentally, his outlook shifted once the Rams’ WR1A and B returned. Plus, in a must-win game for Miami, we should see enough passing out of both sides to keep Robinson relevant in Week 10.
Robinson plays on both sides of the field but has lined up as the left WR on 59.6% of his plays. And let’s assume CB Jalen Ramsey tries to stay with Nacua as much as he can. That leaves Cam Smith on Robinson. In the last two weeks, of 68 corners with more than 50 pass coverage snaps, Smith has allowed the seventh-highest passer rating when targeted, with 89 yards on nine catches. As the Dolphins continue to flounder on both sides of the ball, Robinson can take advantage of his matchup in Week 10.
Bears WR Keenan Allen vs. Patriots
I can understand wanting to avoid Chicago’s entire offense with Caleb Williams struggling in his rookie year. He’s faced pressure on more than a quarter of his dropbacks in all but one game. Among all active starting QBs, he has the third-worst EPA per dropback. However, I’ll take one of his WRs for Week 10.
First off, the Patriots have generated pressure at the fifth-lowest rate this season. They should give Williams more time to operate. Let’s take things a step further. New England’s weakest defender is slot corner Marcus Jones. Over the last month, the only functional offense with legitimate WRs to face NE has been the Jets. In that game, Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams combined for 83 yards on five targets. Coupled with Tyler Conklin’s short score, Jones gives Chicago the best shot at keeping its offense on the move. And we already know who’s going to be their inside man.
Not only has Allen resumed his interior role in Chicago, but his knack for hoarding targets came with him. At a 52.0% slot rate and 10.9 air yards per target since Week 5, Allen (in theory) gets the layup looks. DJ Moore and Rome Odunze are still on the outside. With an easier defensive front on the docket for Williams, Allen’s role makes him an underrated asset for fantasy in Week 10.
Matchups to Avoid
Cardinals WR Marvin Harrison Jr. vs. Jets
I have Marvin Harrison listed as a player to avoid, but it’s worth discussing his range of outcomes first.
- Target Share: 23.0%
- Air Yard Share: 42.0%
- aDOT: 15.2
Harrison has a UR Score of 6.3. Based on this alone, he’d be comparable to classmate Brian Thomas Jr. or Amari Cooper. Either frame his floor and ceiling potential. The Jaguars’ WR1 has two games of 15 or more PPR points sandwiched between outings in the single digits. Harrison has done the same. But his potential to meet his ceiling looks limited against the Jets.
Whether he’ll see CB Sauce Gardner or D.J. Reed doesn’t matter. The duo has largely kept perimeter receivers in check. Tank Dell was the first to eclipse 100 yards on them, but we know circumstances compelled the Texans to get him targets. The Cardinals have Trey McBride (and Greg Dortch). George Pickens’ TD was the first the Jets’ outside CBs have allowed since September. With the Cardinals’ passing game continuing to struggle, we should lower our expectations for Harrison.
Titans WR Calvin Ridley at Chargers
Calvin Ridley fits into a bucket similar to Marvin Harrison. With DeAndre Hopkins in Kansas City, Ridley has gotten the star treatment he wanted.
Over a two-game sample, Ridley is averaging 11 targets per game. His slot snaps have also been on the rise. So, Ridley’s case of going from a low-end WR2 or high-end WR3 to a WR1 relies on volume. And he gets it. However, the Chargers are a tough out for the Titans’ offense.
- WR DvP: 23.8 points allowed, 29th
- RB DvP: 15.1, 31st
The Bolts have kept a lid on nearly every aspect of opposing offenses. Bo Nix is the only passer to throw for more than one TD against them. No QB has crested 275 passing yards. And it gets even worse for Ridley specifically.
L.A.’s outside corner duo of Tarheeb Still and Cam Hart have been excellent through nine weeks. Against WR1s (receivers with a +20.0% target share), they’ve only given up one score. No one’s gotten into the triple digits. With the Chargers’ defensive front likely giving the Titans problems (12th in pressure rate), Ridley’s path to another strong performance becomes slim.
