At some point every season, the NFL action leaves us in a daze. Afterward, the general comments typically start with, “I can’t remember the last time” this big thing happened. And then we nickname it later. For example, when there are four to six teams on bye, we call it “Bye-Mageddon.”
Along the same vein, Week 7 was “Injury-Pocalypse.”
Tampa Bay lost both of their starting WRs. San Francisco looks to be a similar spot (at least for the short term). When WR3s like Jauan Jennings and Cedric Tillman rocketed up to the top of our waiver claims, we knew it was a rough week. Say it with me: I can’t remember the last time so many injuries happened all at once. But we still have to plan for the upcoming week.
So, to help, here’s the in-depth context you’ll need on six WR/CB matchups to adjust our fantasy expectations for Week 8.
Matchups to Target
Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill vs. Cardinals
I’m usually against relying on one-game samples to make a point. But Miami’s passing game without Tua Tagovailoa has been an anchor to the fantasy value of all their pass-catchers (except Jonnu Smith, apparently). Tyreek Hill has especially felt the sting of his QB’s absence.
Hill’s Week 1 usage lined up with his ADP. On the season, only three WRs have a UR score of 8.9 or better. However, over the last month, it’s easy to find more than three receivers to roster over Hill.
- Targets per Game: 6.0, 29th (out of 32 qualifiers – min 20% target share since Week 3)
- TPRR: 22.4%, 24th
- YPRR: 1.31, 31st
Part of the issue was the Dolphins’ backup QB. Tagovailoa had the quickest average time to throw of any starter (2.31 seconds). Tim Boyle made fast (2.37- second average TT) but inaccurate (-7.1% CPOE) throws. Snoop Huntley (2.7) and Skylar Thompson (2.78) also couldn’t replicate Tua’s faith in the scheme and receivers. So, with Tua’s processing speed and accuracy back, Hill should at least be a WR2.
Hill’s 6.0 UR score in Weeks 3-7 was in line with receivers like Courtland Sutton and Michael Pittman (read WR3s). The QB switch bumps him up a tier. Miami’s matchup gives him another boost.
- (Arizona) Defense vs. WR Rank: 6th
- Pressure Rate: 28th
- Explosive Pass Rate Allowed: 24th
The Cardinals had Justin Herbert under duress on nearly a third of his dropbacks. The result was his highest yardage total since Week 10 of last year (349). Fantasy managers have been waiting to start Hill with confidence. With Tua back, the matchup should have Hill locked into his starting spot on our rosters.
Bills WR Amari Cooper at Seahawks
I don’t know if this is true or not, but Amari Cooper (potentially) not knowing which route to run and still scoring a TD is objectively funny.
Even better, Cooper slid into the WR role that Josh Allen (and we as fantasy managers) needed.
- Target Share: 16.0%
- Air Yard Share: 22.0%
Individually, the values for either metric don’t hold much weight. Romeo Doubs has a 16.0% target share on the season. A 22.0% air yard share would put you in the range of Zay Flowers’s usage. However, the two combined are significant.
Khalil Shakir has cleared these two stats in a single game just once this year. Same for Keon Coleman before Cooper arrived. It’s not like Cooper displayed his technical skills as a route runner. He only had four days to look at the playbook. But his presence and instant chemistry brought Allen’s EPA per dropback up to its highest point in a month (0.27). And it’s reasonable to expect more snaps and routes for the former Browns’ receiver. And Seattle’s secondary has been one to target.
The Seahawks may get back their two starting corners, but they won’t be at full strength. While they’ve been out, the secondary has allowed the 10th-most yards per pass play. The stat lines for Drake London (6-63-1) and Deebo Samuel (3-102-1) against them emphasize the varying ways WRs have beaten them. Even with Cooper still working himself into the offense, Allen’s comfort with the new receiver should be enough to have him in your lineups in Week 8.
Sneaky Matchups
Browns WR Cedric Tillman vs. Ravens
If recommending Tyreek Hill based on a one-game sample was bad, highlighting Cedric Tillman is worse.
But, hey, this is a sneaky (read: desperate) option. Plus, Tillman was one of the most-added WRs off waivers this week. So, I’m not too far off. Regardless, let’s start with his QB situation.
Jameis Winston will be back in our lives as a starter for the Browns. To be fair, Winston dropped back to pass just 12 times against the Bengals on Sunday. Cincinnati didn’t blitz him once. They pressured him twice. It wasn’t a normal QB day. But because the Browns were trailing by multiple scores, we got to see Winston sling it.
- Air Yards per Attempt: 10.5
- Average Time to Throw: 2.54
- Middle of the Field Throw Rate: 70.0%
All three were season-high marks for a Cleveland QB. In essence, Winston was executing the offense HC Kevin Stefanski and OC Ken Dorsey had designed for Deshaun Watson (minus Amari Cooper). And Cedric Tillman was a primary beneficiary of the (second) QB change.
I’ve got two pieces of context to add here. First, it’s good to see Tillman with the team lead in targets (12) in their first game without Cooper. But Jerry Jeudy earned more looks with Winston on the field (four to three). However, there’s a reason we should prefer Tillman.
- Air Yards per Target: 11.0 (Tillman), 15.8 (Jeudy)
- YPRR: 1.87, 1.13
Tillman got looks at every level of the field. From a WR screen to a go route, the Browns (and Winston) were looking for Tillman to earn volume. I’m not expecting another 8.2 UR score (low-end WR1), but going against the Ravens does give Tillman the runway for another strong outing.
- Bucs WRs: 17-80-0
- Commanders WRs: 15-111-2
- Bengals WRs: 26-276-4
Since Baltimore beat down the Bills, Tampa is the only squad without a passing TD to one of their primary WRs. And that’s only because Mike Evans went down early. Otherwise, multiple offenses with passers of different archetypes have found ways to get their receivers into the box. If we know one thing, we know Winston will fire the ball downfield. Sometimes, to his detriment. However, if we want to harness the fantasy goodness that comes with the Winston experience, I’ll roster the WR on the Browns with the skill set to win at any point on the field.
Texans WR Tank Dell vs. Colts
I’m not much of a math guy (in reality, I kind of am), but 0 catches and no yards don’t help much in fantasy football. What’s worse is that Tank Dell was starting to look like a viable fantasy option with Nico Collins out.
But, as always, let’s add context.
The Packers had C.J. Stroud in a blender on Sunday. Houston’s QB faced pressure on 51.7% of his dropbacks (a season-high). Accordingly, Stroud’s 61.1% adjusted completion percentage was a season-low. Simply put, the offense wasn’t working. So, Dell went down with the ship. But if Houston’s offensive line is part of the problem, facing the Colts shouldn’t be much of a concern.
- (Indianapolis) Blitz Rate: 25th
- Pressure Rate: 30th
Granted, Indianapolis’s defensive front is on the mend. But other starters are still missing. And with the Colts’ secondary ranking 14th in PPR points allowed to WRs, Dell’s team environment and defensive matchup should give us the confidence to start on Sunday.
Matchups to Avoid
Ravens WR Rashod Bateman at Browns
If there was a fraudulent performance coming out of Week 7, it was Rashod Bateman’s.
To be clear, I’d never say that to his or any other professional athlete’s face. I don’t have the same speed to run away as I did during my prime. Regardless, see if you can spot the outlier in Bateman’s usage over the last month.
Here’s where being able to toggle percentages off and on within the Utilization Report game log can be useful. By the percentages, Bateman has been sitting around a 20.0% target share in three of the last four weeks.
In reality, he earned eight targets the week Lamar Jackson threw 42 times (season-high, second-most in his career). Otherwise, he’s living off four targets a game. Even worse (or more volatile for fantasy), at a 23.3-yard aDOT, they’re deep targets. It’s an unsustainable production pace.
Zay Flowers’s potential drop in volume due to injury does give Bateman another chance to shine. Cleveland has surrendered the 12th-most receiving yards to enemy WRs. But they’ve limited explosive gains to premiere WRs like Tee Higgins (3), Ja’Marr Chase (2), and A.J. Brown (3). Lamar Jackson provides enough eye candy in the pocket to let Bateman slip by a secondary for a long gain. But banking on that type of scenario is tough to trust on a week-to-week basis.
Colts WR Michael Pittman Jr. at Texans
Admittedly, the WR “Injury-Pocalypse” will likely force Michael Pittman into your lineups. But he has two problems (other than his back).
- Target Share: 25.5% (Josh Downs), 21.5% (Pittman)
- TPRR: 30.4%, 21.2%
- YPRR: 1.94, 1.88
Since returning from his early-season injury, Josh Downs has dug into Pittman’s workload. His route tree overlaps with the Colts’ WR1’s as both operate in the short and intermediate areas of the field. In a perfect world, they could co-exist. Malik Nabers and Wan’Dale Robinson come to mind. But, in that ideal scenario, they’d need a QB that could get them the ball.
- Behind the LOS: -0.25 (EPA per dropback), 24th (rank out of 32 qualifiers – min. 112 dropbacks)
- 1-10 Air Yards: -0.38, 32nd
- 11-20 Air Yards: 0.03, 27th
- 20+ Air Yards: 0.17, 20th
Find a QB accuracy metric, and you’ll see Anthony Richardson listed at or near the bottom. His -11.3% CPOE ranks 32nd out of 32 qualifiers (min. 112 dropbacks). Two of three passing TDs have come on throws of 50 yards or more. Richardson’s passing skill set doesn’t match how his primary receivers win on the field.
The Texans set up as a positive matchup for either of the Colts’ WRs, though. Demario Douglas (9-92-1) and Christian Kirk (12-61-1) were able to work Houston’s interior defense for quick gains and find the end zone. However, Richardson’s inaccuracies negate a similar path for Pittman. Until we see improvement in the scheme or QB play in Indianapolis, Pittman falls into the WR4 bucket.
