Week 9 is here, and that means it's time to examine the best — and worst — wide receiver matchups for fantasy football.
This week, we look at six matchups fantasy managers should target, avoid, or consider for their sneaky upside in Week 9.
Matchups to Target
Rams WR Cooper Kupp at Seattle
Cooper Kupp’s return to the field was a welcomed sight by both Rams fans and everyone rostering him. And yet, managers with Puka Nacua were probably happier by the end of TNF.
But don’t just look at the yardage column in the box score. Shoot, look at their fantasy point totals. Even with the spotlight on Nacua, these two finished just two points apart in PPR leagues. Per our Utilization Report game logs, Matthew Stafford was looking to his breakfast mate nearly as much as the sophomore WR.
- Target Share: 23.5% (Kupp), 26.5% (Nacua)
- Play-Action Target Rate: 25.0%, 22.0%
- Target Share in Obvious Passing Situations: 33.0%, 17.0%
In other words, Kupp’s workload is intact. Plus, we can expect him (and Nacua) to increase their route rates (82.0% and 65.0%) after the extra time to rest between games. And the Rams should be due for some regression with regards to how they’re scoring touchdowns.
Heading into Week 8, L.A. had scored 61.5% of their touchdowns on the ground. Yay for Kyren Williams’s managers. However, they’ve maintained their high passing rate (fifth in neutral passing rate on early downs) even without their top two wideouts available. As they continue to move the ball, we should expect Stafford and his receivers to be the beneficiaries of finding the end zone. Luckily, they face Seattle this weekend.
The Seahawks' secondary has allowed at least one passing TD in every game over the last month. Josh Allen, Brock Purdy, and Daniel Jones had multi-score outings. But, specific to Kupp, Seattle has an issue with its interior defense. They’ve surrendered the 12th-most PPG to slot receivers since Week 5. Given Kupp’s usual alignment on the inside (64.9% slot snap rate in Week 8), he has the scheme and matchup to vault back into the WR1 conversation in Week 9.
Titans WR Calvin Ridley vs. Patriots
DeAndre Hopkins was holding Calvin Ridley back.
I’m mostly kidding.
Earning targets has a talent component to it. To be fair to Ridley, he was running deeper routes (16.6 aDOT). Still, with Hopkins ring chasing, all we needed was one week for Ridley’s workload concerns to subside.
- Target Share: 38.0% (season-high)
- Air Yard Share: 45.0%
- Targets per Route Run: 36.0% (season-high)
Of course, the raw numbers look great. But his route deployment makes the usage and production more sustainable.
Ridley’s aDOT was seven yards lower than where it was two weeks ago (19.8 to 12.4). His 50.0% slot target rate was also a season-high. He’s an actual WR1. Now, he gets the matchup to go with it.
- Week 8: Garrett Wilson, 8-113-0
- Week 7: Tank Dell, 9-57-1
- Week 6: Brian Thomas Jr., 5-89-1
- Week 5: Tyreek Hill, 6-69-0 (w/ Tyler Huntley)
- Week 4: Jauan Jennings, 6-88-0
The last three WR1s to face the Patriots all finished with 15.0 or more PPR points. I only listed Dell for the Texans, but Stefon Diggs also found the end zone on 77 yards. With the Patriots posting bottom-12 marks in pass rush and run-stop win rate, Mason Rudolph (or Will Levis) should have the time and offensive game plan to elevate Ridley into the Top 12 again in Week 9.
Sneaky Matchups
Panthers WR Jalen Coker vs. Saints
As of this writing, Adam Thielen has only practiced in a limited fashion. We don’t have any certainty regarding his status for this weekend. Assuming his return gets delayed another week, Jalen Coker has FLEX potential.
I used the last three weeks not only to show a positive trend (which helps my case), but Xavier Legette’s shoulder kept him out of Week 5. Carolina was able to showcase Diontae Johnson (also injured), Legette, and Coker for Weeks 6 and 7. Johnson was out last Sunday. From all three games, we can tease out some underlying notes for Coker.
First, and most importantly, the Holy Cross product saw more work with Johnson out. Only Legette accrued more air yards in Week 8. But what stayed constant was his slot rate. He’s run from the interior on 60.0% or more of the snaps in every game over the last month. Even with Johnson out, Coker was the team’s inside guy used in the short and intermediate parts of the field. If he gets another start, he has the matchup to have WR3 appeal.
Per our DvP tool, New Orleans already ranks as the sixth-best matchup for WRs. They also give up the second-most PPG to slot receivers. Ladd McConkey just cooked them for a long TD last week. With Bryce Young looking a bit more functional in his return to the starting lineup, Coker may be the desperate play you need to stay afloat in Week 9.
Giants WR Darius Slayton vs. Commanders
I expected Darius Slayton to phase out of the offense with Malik Nabers back on the field. Beforehand, it was Nabers and Wan’Dale Robinson racking up targets. However, Daniel Jones has been more aggressive as a thrower, averaging 8.3 air yards per attempt over the last two weeks (7.3 passing aDOT from Weeks 1-5). As a result, Slayton has held onto a piece of the passing game.
On paper, facing the Commanders’ secondary doesn’t look as easy as it was back in September. However, remember who they’ve faced. Caleb Williams has been under pressure at the 10th-highest rate over the last month. And what else can be said about the Panthers’ offense? But the Giants have made some adjustments even with their offensive line woes.
Jones’s average time to throw has been under his seasonal average (2.73 seconds) in two of his last three games. Notably, one of those contests was on Monday night. Jones not only got the ball out in 2.54 seconds, but his 8.5-yard passing aDOT was the highest it’s been since Week 4.
The last competent offense Washington saw (Baltimore) punished the Commanders’ perimeter corners to the tune of 76 yards to Zay Flowers and 71 to Rashod Bateman. Jones isn’t Jackson. However, a Slayton-Bateman comp is well within reason, lending credence to Slayton as a potential option for Week 9.
Matchups to Avoid
Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs. Rams
- Allen Lazard
- Jayden Reed
- Darnell Mooney
- Jauan Jennings
- Tee Higgins
- Rashod Bateman
Whoops, I’m sorry.
I started listing off players who have scored more fantasy points (74.9) on fewer targets (55) than Jaxon Smith-Njigba. I could keep going, but you get the idea.
Seattle ranks third in early-down passing rate, and Geno Smith is top 10 in passing success rate. And still, JSN is averaging the same amount of PPG as Xavier Worthy. At a 6.5 UR Score, his opportunities and production compare well to players like Courtland Sutton and Ladd McConkey. Plus, going up against the Rams won’t make things any easier.
- FPPG Allowed to WRs: 25th
- FPPG Allowed to Slot WRs: 32nd
- Total Passing TDs Allowed: 28th
Even without Aaron Donald, L.A. has found a way to keep opposing offenses at bay. And, critically, slot WRs have been held in check despite facing premiere route runners like Justin Jefferson (6 yards from the slot) and Brock Bowers (44) in recent weeks. There’s some optimism DK Metcalf will return, offering another target for the Rams’ secondary. But even if he doesn’t, the offense sagged without him on the field, making Smith-Njigba tough to start in Week 9.
Bills WR Keon Coleman vs. Dolphins
Buffalo faced the Dolphins back in Week 2, and I’m trying not to let Keon Coleman’s stat line from that game influence my thoughts here.
- 0 catches
- 0 yards
- 1 target
Maybe I’m exaggerating by putting the data in bullets. Plus, Tua’s multiple interceptions (and subsequent head injury that put him on IR) likely changed the complexion of the entire game. Put another way, things could be different this time. And it’s not like the rookie doesn’t deserve a shot at redeeming himself.
Coleman’s routes and targets have been on the rise since the game against Miami. And even with Amari Cooper on the squad, Coleman’s air yard share has only increased. However, where Coleman roams is where the Dolphins’ secondary operates best.
Last week was the first TD Miami had allowed to a perimeter WR all month. Before Marvin Harrison Jr., it was DK Metcalf scoring on a deep shot back in Week 3. Coleman might have a similar build, but his 4.61-second 40-yard dash time is the differentiator. Without the speed, he’ll need to outmuscle defenders like Ramsey. Plus, as Khalil Shakir has reasserted himself atop the pecking order (29.0% target share in Week 8), Coleman’s role as the “sacrificial X-receiver” may limit his production in Week 9.