Wide receiver is arguably the most difficult skill position to evaluate and project for fantasy purposes.

Think about what it takes to be a top-tier receiver. Being a WR1 already means the ball is coming a player's way often. However, the receiver's footwork, release technique or alignment has allowed him to gain separation before the QB makes the throw. Then there's the burst, long speed and/or power to propel through (or around) defenders after securing the ball. In other words, a WR’s inherent traits help him stand out.

But sometimes they’re not enough.

A pass-catcher’s surroundings can undercut their talent. Smooth routes aren’t as useful when the QB tucks the ball and runs at the first sign of pressure. Good WR play exists at the intersection of talent and situation — and I’ve got a process to find a few examples for the 2024 season.

Process

Like other positions, each player has a different skill set. Their contrasting styles can make it difficult to set thresholds. So I stripped away the names and looked at the last five seasons of PPR results.

  • Top 6 (WR1A): 313.6 total PPR points, 19.6 PPG
  • Top 12 (WR1B): 255.5, 16.5
  • Top 24 (WR2): 222.74, 14.4
  • Top 36 (WR3): 185.2, 12.7 

On the one hand, it’s a good thing we’ve used our collective knowledge to identify the top-tier WRs from each class. But on the flip side, we leave ourselves with lesser talent in the later rounds. The hit rates for WRs look more like lucky strikes than coming from a structured approach.

  • WR1A: 1.4%
  • WR1B: 2.8%
  • WR2: 5.6%
  • WR3: 9.7% 

Luckily, there are some actionable takeaways from the data.

Establishing Archetypes

What’s happened for offenses in the past largely informs what we think will occur next. Whether it's using a model or simple vibes, there’s a static nature to our expectations. We can acknowledge that player production shifts and coaching tendencies evolve, but quantifying the change is nearly impossible. It’s why leaning into uncertainty can pay off for fantasy managers.

Ten WRs from the late rounds have eclipsed 200 PPR points over the past five years. Four were rookies, and two others were in their second year. The remaining four experienced a change of scenery. Nico Collins stayed in Houston but was paired with C.J. Stroud. Adam Thielen moved to Carolina and sucked up 137 targets. Considering we might be wrong about pecking orders or offensive efficiency can pay dividends. However, the player still needs to possess the requisite talent level to take advantage of the situation.

2024 WR Sleepers

Dontayvion Wicks, Green Bay Packers

Dontayvion Wicks currently sits at WR4 for the Packers. His value makes sense. Wicks saw only 58 targets last year, and now — with Christian Watson healthy, Romeo Doubs coming off statement games in the back half of last season and Jayden Reed establishing himself as the team's do-it-all pass-catching option — Wicks should be behind their primary trio. But he showed last year he can force a WR3B situation.

Subjectively, Green Bay needs to develop other weapons for QB Jordan Love. Each member of the receiving triumvirate missed time due to injury. Watson alone sat out eight games with hamstring issues.

Objectively, Wicks’ contextualized workload emphasizes he has more value than his ADP suggests.

  • Play-Action Targets: 2nd (team target share), 1st (targets per route run)
  • Third-/Fourth-Down Targets: 3rd, 1st 
  • YPRR: 2nd
  • First Downs per Target: 1st 

These are all good metrics for a developing WR. However, the one that caught my eye was his usage in two-WR sets. Green Bay ran concepts with two receivers on the field at the seventh-highest rate in 2023. In those sets, Wicks had the highest TPRR rate, even with Watson and Doubs active. His 3.81 YPRR was more than the other two combined (1.19, 1.80). Meanwhile, Reed barely saw the field, touching the ball just once in this personnel grouping. 

Wicks ran a route on only 45% of Love’s dropbacks in ’23, but the Virginia product has clearly earned more playing time. So while we’re excited about the Packers’ passing game after a strong finish, Wicks taking on a larger role isn’t out of the question.

Darnell Mooney, Atlanta Falcons

The last we saw of Darnell Mooney, he was (narrowly) dropping a Hail Mary heave from Justin Fields in Week 15. Unfortunately, the result is emblematic of his career: so close to being a WR worth targeting and yet so far. But it wasn’t always this way.

Injuries have marred Mooney’s last two seasons. He missed five games in 2022 after tearing ligaments in his ankle. Mooney played through a knee bruise this past year. However, when Fields came on the scene in 2021, Mooney was not just the man in Chicago, he stood out amongst his peers.

  • Total Target Share: 6th (out of 35 WRs; min 100 targets)
  • Play-Action TPRR: 17th
  • RZ Target Share: 20th
  • Third-/Fourth-Down Target Share: 16th

Mooney’s target and air yards share rose once Fields took the job from Andy Dalton (but then had to give it back after getting hurt). And the former fifth-round pick cashed in on the opportunity. At 12.9 PPR PPG, Mooney ranked fifth among all second-year WRs and finished the season as a WR2. Now he has a shot at being the second option in Atlanta.

Oct 1, 2023; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Bears wide receiver Darnell Mooney (11) runs the ball after a catch against Denver Broncos safety Delarrin Turner-Yell (32) during the second half at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Mike Dinovo-USA TODAY Sports

We can project a productive environment for Mooney based on the coaching and QB turnover. Kirk Cousins ranked eighth in EPA per play before his Achilles tear. OC Zac Robinson comes from the Sean McVay tree that brought the "You Like That!" out of Cousins. Plus, Cousins’ offenses have been fruitful for more than just the primary guy.

  • 2023: Jordan Addison, 15.3% target share (in games with Jefferson), 24th in PPR PPG
  • 2022: Adam Thielen, 16.7%, 38th 
  • 2021: Thielen, 16.4%, 14th
  • 2020: Thielen, 22.3%, 11th 

For science, for the culture even, pairing a good QB with Drake London and Kyle Pitts is something we’ve always wanted to see. But don’t forget about Mooney. He has shown the ability to earn and create with his looks if there is above-average play from under center.

Greg Dortch, Atlanta Cardinals

I realize the Cardinals went 3-5 down the stretch when QB Kyler Murray returned. But with all of last year’s speculation about Murray’s future in Arizona, we forgot how much of an impact he made on the offense.

  • Plays per Game: 23rd without Murray, 9th with Murray
  • EPA per Play: 27th, 9th
  • Yards per Drive: 27th, 5th 

Perhaps not coincidentally, Greg Dortch’s resurgence came with Murray’s ’23 debut. Marquise Brown was sidelined with injuries, leaving Trey McBride, Rondale Moore and the 5-foot-7 slot man as the main weapons. And as his on-field demeanor suggests, Dortch was up for the challenge.

  • Target Share: 1st (among Arizona WRs)
  • Air Yard Share: 2nd
  • TPRR: 1st
  • YPRR: 1st

Dec 3, 2023; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Greg Dortch (83) returns a kick-off against the Pittsburgh Steelers during the first quarter at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Only Trey McBride saw more targets in obvious passing situations than Dortch over that stretch. Now Moore is in Atlanta and Hollywood is playing with Patrick Mahomes. Sure, Marvin Harrison Jr. will absorb a majority of Murray’s attention, but this year’s WR1 has only a 15.6% snap rate from the slot. There’s no one else on the depth chart to challenge Dortch for work on the inside, making him a worthwhile target in the late rounds.

Demarcus Robinson, Los Angeles Rams

Yes, I realize Robinson has been a cast-off at his previous stops. In Kansas City, Robinson couldn't accrue more than 60 targets in any of his six seasons there, even with Patrick Mahomes as his quarterback. He barely beat out Devin Duvernay in Baltimore — he had just five more targets than Duvernay while QB Lamar Jackson was healthy — averaged just 9.5 yards per catch in his one season there.

But 2024 looks different for the 30-year-old WR, at least on paper.

The Rams deployed three WRs at the highest rate in the league, 94.5%, in 2023. No other team was over 90.0%. LA tried to give Tutu Atwell a shot at blending into the offense, but by Week 11, when Robinson's snap rate jumped over 50.0%, it was clear Robinson had a hold on the job.

  • Rate Route: 80.3% (Robinson), 24.4% (Atwell), 13.8% (Ben Skowronek)
  • Target Share: 16.0%, 4.4%, 2.7%
  • TPRR: 17.6%, 16.1%, 17.1%

Down the stretch, Robinson's 31.0% air yard share was more than Cooper Kupp’s (19.4%). And Robinson beat out Puka Nacua in explosive play rate (27.0% to 23.3%). That's not to say Robinson is better than either WR, but he's a good fit in the offense as the third option for QB Matthew Stafford. And with TE Tyler Higbee likely sidelined for most of the regular season, Robinson's role might even increase in 2024.