Xavier Worthy, Nico Collins Fantasy Outlook: Week 11 Sheesh Report
Ian Hartitz breaks down close calls and overthrows that almost became touchdowns among other beyond-the-box-score, near-miss events. It's the Week 11 Sheesh Report, presented by Mike's Hard Lemonade.
Week 11 has come and gone. We saw 14 NFL games that brought joy, laughs, and tears to football fans and, of course, fantasy football faithful.
Today, we’ll focus on the latter sadness and break down just how close some came to achieving fantasy football glory. Critics might call this unnecessary cruelty, while supporters could claim it helps with understanding the full context of what exactly happened last week.
Either way: Welcome to the Sheesh Report.
What follows is a breakdown of all the tilting, near-miss moments from last week that left fantasy managers and fans alike saying, "Sheesh!" I’ve watched hours of film and combed play-by-play data to help determine instances when:
- Pass catchers could have scored or picked up big yardage with a more accurate pass
- Pass catchers did receive an accurate pass that should have resulted in a score or big gain, but the ball was dropped
- Ball carriers managed to get all the way to the 1-yard line, but didn’t score
- Players scored or picked up big yardage, but the play was nullified by a penalty
- Other random shit that managed to tilt fantasy football managers of all shapes and sizes
Let's kick things off with one of the sheeshier moments of Week 11 …
Xavier Worthy … SHEESH
The Chiefs' first-round rookie did a lot of good things in Week 11. Xavier Worthy's 4 receptions tied a career-high, he found the end zone, and the 68 total yards were tied for his second-highest mark of the year; there's reason for optimism here moving forward.
And yet, things could have been so much bigger had Worthy managed to be just a bit more aware of the sideline, something that has already reared its ugly head earlier this season.
Overall, Worthy has hauled in just 3 of 12 targets thrown 20-plus yards downfield this season, catching as many TDs (2) as Patrick Mahomes has thrown INTs (2) along the way.
The speedy first-year talent was supposed to simply be one-third of a three-pronged WR room featuring Rashee Rice and Hollywood Brown; it's possible all of this is simply too much too fast and Worthy will go on to far bigger and better things as he builds more chemistry with the best QB alive. With all that said: Sheesh.
Of course, Worthy wasn't the only one who just missed out on creating some huge downfield plays …
Unrealized air yards are a helluva drug
We can help quantify sheeshy missed downfield opportunities using "unrealized air yards," which are derived by subtracting yards after the catch from every player’s receiving yards total before taking the difference with total air yards to pinpoint exactly how much opportunity through the air (not including potential YAC) a player failed to come down with for one reason or another.
We're essentially measuring the total distance of everyone's incomplete targets. A high number indicates a player had lots of fantasy-friendly opportunities, but didn't capitalize on them for one reason or another. Cool? Cool.
ANYWAY: Nine players racked up at least 70 unrealized air yards in Week 11:
- Chargers WR Quentin Johnston (136)
- Bengals WR Ja'Marr Chase (104)
- Vikings WR Jordan Addison (96)
- Titans WR Calvin Ridley (93)
- Browns WR Cedric Tillman (90)
- Browns WR Elijah Moore (89)
- Colts WR Michael Pittman (83)
- Browns WR Jerry Jeudy (77)
- Saints WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling (76)
Through 11 weeks the top-seven players in unrealized air yards: Ridley (797), Malik Nabers (596), Courtland Sutton (578), Amari Cooper (541), Garrett Wilson (541), Rome Odunze (519), and Pittman (511).
That Ridley number is truly shocking. However, his biggest sheesh of Week 11 didn't actually contribute to this tally thanks to those pesky zebras.
TD! Wait: Flag.
TDs usually get nullified by a penalty for a good reason, but that doesn’t make the roller coaster of adrenaline any less sheeshful for fantasy managers to deal with.
In Calvin Ridley's case: The reason was less good. The NFL has seemingly emphasized limiting offensive tackles from lining up too far off the line of scrimmage, periodically spamming illegal formation penalties when they see fit (remember the Chiefs-Ravens season-opener?). This was again the case in Week 11, as the refs flagged RT Isaiah Prince for this on *three* separate occasions, nullifying 80 yards of offense … and one absolutely massive TD.
There was also a questionable, to be nice, unnecessary roughness penalty called on the Titans that wiped away a stop on 4th and goal. Not a great day at the office for the involved officials in this neutral fan's unbiased opinion.
There were just two more nullified scores of note in Week 11:
- Texans WR Nico Collins: Kicked off Monday Night Football with an electric 77-yard TD by running away from everyone on a relatively ho-hum screen … only for the score to be taken off the board due to a ticky-tack ineligible man downfield penalty (signed, a bitter Nico Collins manager).
- Cowboys K Brandon Aubrey: Drilled a 64-yard field goal, one yard short of his career long, only for Dallas to willingly take the points off the board … and proceed to turn the ball over on downs a few short minutes later. Sheesh.
Additionally, Ravens WR Nelson Agholor (34 yards), Saints TE Foster Moreau (29), Titans WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (23), Cowboys WR Ryan Flournoy (20), Falcons WR Drake London (19), Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes (18), Raiders WR Jakobi Meyers (17), Patriots TE Hunter Henry (17), Ravens RB Derrick Henry (15) all had explosive plays nullified for one reason or another.
Sheeshy stuff for sure, although our next category is arguably the most sheeshy of them all…
The Eagles RB special: Down at the 1-yard line, and no TD
Getting all the way to the 1-yard line but failing to score a TD is objectively a sheeshy feeling—particularly when fantasy managers are forced to watch someone else vulture away the score that was SO CLOSE to belonging to them.
Here’s the full list of Week 11’s players who managed to get the football within three feet of the goal line, but not quite across the plane, and ultimately didn’t score later on the same drive:
- Saints RB Alvin Kamara (x2, same drive)
- Chargers RB Hassan Haskins (x2, same drive)
- Eagles RB Saquon Barkley
- Dolphins RB De'Von Achane
- Vikings RB Aaron Jones
- Chiefs RB Kareem Hunt
- Vikings WR Justin Jefferson
- Colts WR Adonai Mitchell
- Packers QB Jordan Love
Barkley now has *9* such sheeshes on the season, 8 of which have occurred on separate drives. The only other players even somewhat close are Javonte Williams and Kareem Hunt … with 4. Sheesh stuff for fantasy managers, but don't feel too bad for the Eagles' stud RB himself: Barkley has zero dollars in incentives based on TDs.
This category was pretty cut-and-dry, but our next one involves just a bit more imagination …
I could have made that throw! (Editor's note: No you couldn't)
I looked at every incomplete pass that was thrown at least 10 yards downfield and/or into the end zone to get an idea of who just missed out on some big plays last week—and there were quite a few instances that stuck out:
- Bears WR Rome Odunze (88, would have needed some YAC, but the defender fell down at the last second on a bomb down the sideline)
- Bengals WR Ja'Marr Chase (70)
- Chiefs WR Xaiver Worthy (70, but also could have stayed in bounds for a chunk)
- Bills TE Quintin Morris (56, would have needed a little bit of YAC)
- Vikings WR Jordan Addison (41)
- Saints TE Foster Moreau (35)
- Ravens WR Diontae Johnson (29, also dropped the ball anyway, sooo)
- Rams WR Cooper Kupp (8)
- Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill (8, but he caught an 8-yard TD on the next play so it's all good)
- Dolphins WR Odell Beckham Jr. (5)
Meanwhile, pass catchers mostly held up their end of the bargain this week when it came to dropped TDs. Overall, Vikings WR Jalen Nailor (from 46 yards out) had the only official dropped score of the week, although Tee Higgins (16) and Justin Jefferson (1) did have potential TDs in their hands before the coverage defender managed to break up the pass.
Sheesh indeed. But at least these players had the opportunity to make the play in the first place …
What if defensive pass interference yards counted for fantasy points?
Defensive pass interferences can be finicky and don’t always occur in instances when the targeted receiver would have FOR SURE made the catch.
That said: They are very annoying for fantasy managers to deal with when the result could’ve, should’ve, would’ve been a chunk gain—and maybe even a TD.
Overall, three players gained at least 10 yards courtesy of DPI penalties in Week 11:
- Bills WR Curtis Samuel (22)
- Vikings WR Justin Jefferson (16)
- Commanders WR Noah Brown (14)
Brown (158) has a full 77 additional yards drawn on DPI penalties than the next-closest player this season (Jefferson, 81). Madness.
Our last category of sheesh centers around determining which QBs perhaps deserve some slack for their on-paper turnovers …
Was that interception REALLY the QB's fault?
From pressure, to a bad route, to an essential arm punt on 3rd and forever: There are quite a few reasons why any given interception might not necessarily be the QB's fault, even if that context isn't provided in the boxscore.
Good news for you, a scholar: Our Fantasy Life Sheesh Experts (just me, actually) have looked closely at each and every interception thrown in Week 11 to get an idea of which QBs probably deserve a bit of slack despite technically committing a turnover.
Specifically:
- Raiders QB Gardner Minshew: Targeted WR Jakobi Meyers on a ho-hum short curl, but Meyers turned outside, and Minshew threw inside. Considering Jalen Ramsey was sitting on the outside, we can probably conclude that Meyers was in the wrong here.
- Patriots QB Drake Maye: The game-ending INT in question came with just 1:55 remaining in the game on 3rd and 13; the rookie QB had to try to make something happen here. Additionally, WR DeMario Douglas never exactly turned around for the pass.
- Ravens QB Lamar Jackson: Initially seemed to complete (yet another) wheel to Justice Hill, only for the Steelers to rip the ball away at the last second. You can argue Lamar still hasn't thrown an INT this season that was explicitly his fault.
- Titans QB Will Levis: Was picked off on a bomb to a double-covered Calvin Ridley; just realize the Titans were down 10 with under two minutes remaining, so the second-year QB had to start taking some risky chances anyway.
Additionally, each of Bills QB Josh Allen, Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes, and Texans QB C.J. Stroud threw INTs on 4th down attempts that weren't necessarily great passes, but then again, it's not like they had much of a choice but to force the issue.
On the other side of things, Cowboys QB Cooper Rush, Jets QB Aaron Rodgers, Chargers QB Justin Herbert, and Browns QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson were lucky to not register an extra turnover, as PFF deemed each to have an incomplete pass that was actually a dropped INT. The league leaders in dropped INTs are Rams QB Matthew Stafford (x6), Browns QB Jameis Winston (x5), and Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield (x5).
I think I speak for all of us when I say for one last time: Sheesh.
Thanks for stopping by. We're on to Week 12.