Xavier Worthy, George Pickens Fantasy Outlook: Week 7 Sheesh Report
Week 7 has come and gone. We saw 15 NFL games that brought joy, laughs and tears to football fans and, of course, fantasy football faithful.
Today, we’ll focus on the latter sadness and break down just how close some came to achieving fantasy football glory. Critics might call this unnecessary cruelty, while supporters could claim it helps with understanding the full context of what exactly happened last week.
Either way: Welcome to the Sheesh Report.
What follows is a breakdown of all the tilting, near-miss moments from Week 7 that left fantasy managers and fans alike saying, "Sheesh." I’ve watched hours of film and combed play-by-play data to help determine instances when:
- Pass catchers could have scored or picked up big yardage with a more accurate pass
- Pass catchers did receive an accurate pass that should have resulted in a score or big gain, but the ball was dropped
- Ball carriers managed to get all the way to the 1-yard line, but didn’t score
- Players scored or picked up big yardage, but the play was nullified by penalty
- Other random shit tilted fantasy football managers of all shapes and sizes
Let's kick things off with one of the sheeshier moments of Week 7…
Would have been a lot cooler if Mahomes hit this deep ball
Entering last week Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes had the lowest average target depth (5.7) yards since post-surgery Alex Smith (5.4). Perhaps he took this personally, as Kansas City dialed up a BOMB to Xavier Worthy on the first play of the second half looking to stretch their 14-6 lead.
Kudos to the rookie for getting ample separation deep down field, but at the end of the day: Sheesh.
Apparently it is possible to overthrow the fastest man alive. Who would have thought?
Anyways, I looked at every incomplete pass that was thrown at least 20 yards downfield and/or into the end zone to get an idea of who just missed out on some big plays last week—and there were three other instances that especially stuck out:
- Steelers WR George Pickens: Created some separation from ace Jets CB Sauce Gardner on the scramble drill, but Russell Wilson couldn't quite give his contested-catch artist a chance at the 4-yard TD while rolling to his left.
- Broncos TE Lucas Krull: Remember that infamous miss by Bo Nix that featured him somehow land the ball between two wide-open receivers? Well, there was only one defender between both players and the end zone, so an accurate pass to his intended target should have led to a fairly easy 41-yard score.
- Lions WR Kalif Raymond: Broke rather wide open deep on a smooth double-move for a potential long score, but Jared Goff had a rare miss and led his intended target out of bounds on what best case could have been a 66-yard house call.
Unsurprisingly, these weren't the only receivers forced to leave quite a few yards on the field last week …
Unrealized air yards are a helluva drug
We can help quantify sheeshy missed downfield opportunities using "unrealized air yards," which are derived by subtracting yards after the catch from every player’s receiving yards total before taking the difference with total air yards to pinpoint exactly how much opportunity through the air (not including potential YAC) a player failed to come down with for one reason or another.
We're essentially measuring the total distance of everyone's incomplete targets. A high number indicates a player had lots of fantasy-friendly opportunities, but didn't capitalize on them for one reason or another. Cool? Cool.
ANYWAY: Eight players racked up at least 70 unrealized air yards in Week 7:
- Chiefs WR Xavier Worthy (127)
- Titans WR Calvin Ridley (112)
- Buccaneers WR Jalen McMillan (93)
- Saints WR Mason Tipton (89)
- Raiders WR Tre Tucker (84)
- Giants WR Malik Nabers (76)
- Browns WR Cedric Tillman (75)
- Jets WR Garrett Wilson (73)
Through seven weeks the unrealized air yards leaderboard is headlined by Ridley (510) and Amari Cooper (510), although it's safe to say the latter WR should be dealing with more accurate targets moving forward inside the friendly confines of this Josh Allen-led Bills offense.
Rough stuff here indeed, although our next category of sheesh is especially tilting for fantasy managers and anytime TD bettors to deal with.
What's worse than political advertisements? Dropped TDs
While drops are a somewhat subjective stat, you know one when you see one, and we unfortunately had to watch the following five players let a good-enough potential TD bounce off their hands and fall incomplete in Week 7:
- Buccaneers WR Mike Evans (potential 24-yard TD dropped, sadly re-aggravated his hamstring injury on the same play)
- Seahawks WR DK Metcalf (20)
- Bills WR Keon Coleman (12, failed to maintain control of the ball while he had his feet in)
- Texans WR Tank Dell (10)
- Jets WR Irvin Charles (3)
- Jaguars WR Christian Kirk (3, failed to get second foot down inbounds despite seemingly having plenty of room)
This is not Kirk's first time on this list, as sadly he's had not one, not two, but three catchable end-zone targets wind up as nothing other than incomplete sheeshes.
Also note that Packers WR Jayden Reed let a potential 45-yard gain fly right through his hands, although in all likelihood it would not have gone for a TD even if caught.
So yeah, those suck! And yet, our next category of sheesh might be even tougher for fantasy managers to deal with.
So close, yet so far away: Down at the 1-yard line, and no TD
Getting all the way to the 1-yard line but failing to score a TD is objectively a sheeshy feeling—particularly when fantasy managers are forced to watch someone else vulture away the score that was SO CLOSE to belonging to them.
Here’s the full list of Week 7’s players who managed to get the football within three feet of the goal line, but not quite across the plane, and ultimately didn’t score later on the same drive:
- Chiefs RB Kareem Hunt (x2, same drive)
- Jets RB Breece Hall
- 49ers RB Jordan Mason
- Eagles RB Saquon Barkley
- Eagles RB Kenneth Gainwell
- 49ers WR Ronnie Bell
- Steelers DST (CB Beanie Bishop)
There was also Chargers WR Jalen Reagor, who looked to be on his way to a huge gain and potential TD … until he fumbled the ball just before the goal line.
What a way to find out Jalen Reagor is on the Chargers.
Anyways, plenty of these guys still put up solid numbers, but fantasy managers can certainly imagine what it would've been like had they managed to gain just one single yard more on those respective runs. Sheesh.
Man, these sucked. Of course, arguably the only thing sheesh-ier than near-miss TDs are scores that were initially counted … until they weren't.
TD! Wait: Flag.
TDs usually get nullified by a penalty for a good reason, but that doesn’t make the roller coaster of adrenaline any less sheeshful for fantasy managers to deal with.
In Week 7 there were six such instances:
- Broncos DST: Recovered a Spencer Rattler fumble and scoop and scored—too bad an offsides penalty made the entertaining play all for nothing. Don't be too sad though, Broncos DST fantasy managers, as the group would later get its TD.
- Browns RB Nick Chubb: The refs nearly ruined one of the best stories of the young season by taking Chubb's 1-yard TD off the board due to a seemingly phantom offensive offsides penalty. Good news: Chubb wound up punching the ball back into the end zone a few plays later anyway, but we almost had an all-time sheeshy sequence considering he was stopped twice more at the 1-yard line in between.
- Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker: Had an objectively baller 13-yard TD taken off the board due to a warranted holding penalty. Still: The juke on 21 was SPICY. (13) yards was very cool but holding, alas.
- Giants TE Theo Johnson: The rookie initially seemed to snap Daniel Jones' hilariously long 659-day streak without a TD pass in MetLife Stadium, only to be flagged for offensive pass interference, nullifying the 10-yard score.
- Ravens QB Lamar Jackson: Ran in for an eight-yard TD, but the score was taken off the board due to a (questionable) hold. Don't be too upside, Jackson fantasy managers: He found Justice Hill for a TD on the very next play.
- Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin: Caught an eight-yard TD pass after a nifty scramble by Baker Mayfield to by some time. Alas: The score was nullified due to a holding penalty that didn't seem overly egregious.
In addition to these TDs, Vikings TE Johnny Mundt (30), Bengals RB Chase Brown (28), Colts WR Alec Pierce (28), Falcons WR Drake London (22), and Broncos RB Javonte Williams (18) all had explosive plays nullified for one reason or another.
Gotta love when officials insist on making the games about them. Wait, we actually hate that? Right. Of course. Let's focus on more of that hate then …
What if defensive pass interference yards counted for fantasy points?
Defensive pass interferences can be finicky and don’t always occur in instances when the targeted receiver would have FOR SURE made the catch.
That said: They are very annoying for fantasy managers to deal with when the result could’ve, should’ve, would’ve been a chunk gain—and maybe even a TD.
Overall, nine players gained at least 15 yards courtesy of DPI penalties in Week 7:
- Packers WR Jayden Reed (30)
- Commanders WR Noah Brown (29)
- Steelers WR George Pickens (29)
- Browns WR Cedric Tillman (22, down to the 1-yard line)
- Cardinals WR Michael Wilson (22)
- 49ers TE George Kittle (18)
- Raiders RB Alexander Mattison (18)
- Seahawks WR DK Metcalf (17)
- Titans WR Calvin Ridley (15)
Brown now has a season-high 99 DPI yards drawn. Pickens (66) and Justin Jefferson (65) are the next-closest receivers. Say it with me everyone: Sheesh.
Our final category of sheesh involves providing a bit more context to some of the interceptions thrown last week.
Was that interception REALLY the QB's fault?
From pressure, to a bad route, to an essential arm punt on 3rd and forever: There are quite a few reasons why any given interception might not necessarily be the QB's fault, even if that context isn't provided in the boxscore.
Good news for you, a scholar: Our Fantasy Life Sheesh Experts (just me, actually) have looked closely at each and every interception thrown in Week 7 to get an idea of which QBs probably deserve a bit of slack despite technically committing a turnover.
Specifically:
- Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes (x2): First INT was tipped at the line of scrimmage by DT Kalia Davis and somehow intercepted by him as well—truly a great play by the big man. The second INT was intended for Xavier Worthy and seemingly put in a reasonable spot; the problem was the rookie fell down as Mahomes released the ball.
- Falcons QB Kirk Cousins: His first INT went straight through Drake London's hands and into the arms of Seahawks S Julian Love.
- Browns QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson: First INT was seemingly intended for an open David Njoku, but an undercutting Cedric Tillman instead stuck his hands out and tipped the pass straight to the Bengals.
- 49ers QB Brock Purdy: It seemed clear his first and third INTs were on nobody other than the man in the mirror, but Purdy's second INT did appear to be the result of miscommunication with backup WR Ronnie Bell.
- Jets QB Aaron Rodgers: His first INT was indeed cleanly picked, but the second hit Garrett Wilson in the chest before finding its way to the Steelers. Note that it was really hard to tell if the ball was potentially tipped just before getting to Wilson.
- Cardinals QB Kyler Murray: Unfortunately had his pass tipped at the line of scrimmage and intercepted, but fortunately James Conner was there to save the day and he managed to get the ball back!
On the other side of things, the following QBs were lucky to not register an extra turnover, as PFF deemed these incomplete passes as dropped INTs: Titans QB Mason Rudolph (x2), Giants QB Daniel Jones (x1), Rams QB Matthew Stafford (x1), Saints QB Spencer Rattler (x1), Broncos QB Bo Nix (x1), and Patriots QB Drake Maye (x1). Stafford now joins Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts atop the dropped INT leaderboard with 4.
I think I speak for all of us when I say for one last time: Sheesh.
Thanks for stopping by. We're on to Week 8.