If you managed to survive the first week in your Guilloteenie league, then the next 48 hours are crucial for the rest of the season (if you didn't survive — the Guillotine League™  lobby is alive with new contests that start this weekend!). 

Cartis Sparks will walk you through going forward starting with general strategy, how to approach the Lions and Chiefs players getting into the mix, and some end-game players to target. Even if you were already chopped, this article will provide essentially the same strategy going forward for joining a new four-team league.

General Strategy

In a normal Guillotine League, if you put up a big number in the first week and feel your team is solid, then you can likely coast for several weeks and save your free agent budget. That is not the case in the Guilloteenie. Instead of going from 18 teams to 17 teams pooling from 32 NFL teams, here, you are going from five teams to four teams, pooling from only 8 NFL teams. Not to mention, even if you advanced you probably had some players who were eliminated in the Wild Card round who will need to be replaced.

Consider the following teams that both survived the Wild Card round:

Both likely advanced with flying colors last week, but Team A only needs to replace T.J. Hockenson while Team B needs to replace everyone but Mark Andrews. 

The first thing you need to do is take the temperature of not only your team but also the rest of the league. Most will probably fall somewhere in between these two rosters, in terms of needing to fill replacements — but if you are closer to Team A I would be a bit frugal this week. If you are inching more toward Team B, it’s time to start spending. Meanehile, if your opponents are closer to Team A this week, they will likely be frugal, allowing you to potentially get a bargain on your pickups. If they are closer to Team B, then let them blow all their money competing against each other.

Considering there will likely be several teams bidding on multiple players, there will also be several competing failing bids. That makes the second waiver period — and even the free add/drop period — crucial. Be vigilant even if you don’t get the player you want on your first try.

In a traditional Guillotine League, as a manager is chopped each week, the pool of rostered players becomes smaller, and ergo, each team essentially becomes a bit better. The Guilloteenie is different because although a manager is still getting chopped each week, the pool of available NFL teams is also decreased. The available teams to choose from will drop from 12 to 8 to 4 to 2. That will make the six Flex positions (2 RB / 2 WR / 2 FLEX) harder to come by each week, which means it is time to start constructing your roster for the end of the season.

As we discussed in last week’s mock draft article, I leaned on players like Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry as my first-round pick because I knew they would likely be around for 2+ games. Similar high-output players like Justin Jefferson or Josh Jacobs would likely put up big numbers, but were at risk for being one and done. You need to keep that in mind for each week when constructing your roster. That means for this week, players on the Texans and Commanders, both nearly double-digit underdogs, will likely again be one and done players. If you have a Nico Collins, Joe Mixon, Jayden Daniels, or Terry McLaurin already on your roster, that’s fine — but I would be cautiously spending substantial budget on them this week.

The Most Chopped Players

The most chopped players across all Guilloteenie leagues last week were A.J. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs (sigh), Jalen Hurts, Aaron Jones, Jordan Addison, Mark Andrews, Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown (double sigh), J.K. Dobbins, and Lamar Jackson. 

When we expand that list to include players still available, we see Cooper Kupp, Brian Robinson, DeVonta Smith, and Saquon Barkley. 

Chiefs and Lions to Target: Let's Get Sneaky 

The current favorites to reach the Super Bowl, these two teams have the highest chance to yield you three more weeks of players. Not overthinking it, but my favorite end-game players from this lot are Jahmyr Gibbs, Travis Kelce, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, Isiah Pacheco, and Xavier Worthy.

Even if you don’t think this will be the Super Bowl matchup, doubling up on Kelce and LaPorta is a sneaky wise move. If they do end up in the Super Bowl and both are on your roster, then your opponent will be likely be forced to start a Noah Gray or Brock Wright in the final week at TE. I’d target Kelce first; he had a strong finish to the season and averaged eight catches for 89 yards with three total touchdowns in last year’s playoff run, with no game below 71 yards.

LaPorta also finished the year strong, scoring or topping seven receptions and 63 yards in each of his last four games. He was also surprisingly effective in his playoff debut last season, scoring in one game and managing nine receptions for 65+ yards in the other two.

In a similar vein, if David Montgomery is healthy, I am not averse to a Gibbs/Montgomery stack. If the Lions make the Super Bowl, if you have both of those running backs (and can tack on Pacheco), then your opponent will be strapped in the final game.

St. Brown remains Goff’s number one receiver, but the Chiefs’ situation is a little more muddled at the WR position. Xavier Worthy has emerged as Patrick Mahomes’ favorite lately. Over his last three games, Worthy averaged over 10 targets per game, scoring in two. You know he’s also good for 3-5 rushing attempts per game, and he might have the best big play propensity of any player left in the playoffs. If I had my choice between Worthy and Nico Collins or Puka Nacua, I would target Worthy because the other two likely only have one game left.

Again, this is all assuming the Lions and Chiefs make the Super Bowl. If you have an inkling that this might be the Bills’, Ravens’, or Eagles’ years, you can transfer the same logic to those teams, but planning for Lions and Chiefs at this point is your safest bet.

End Game Players

When deciding between two similar players, longevity should be your tie breaker. We’ve already discussed Worthy over Collins/Nacua, but it’s not crazy to pivot from, say, Jayden Daniels to Jared Goff or Patrick Mahomes. Remember, there is no bench in this format, so only four quarterbacks will be rostered this week. Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, and Jalen Hurts are all probably shoe-ins, so that means any of Daniels, Goff, or Mahomes should be available for free, i.e., don’t go blowing money on a quarterback this week.

For the rest of your roster, I would avoid stocking up on Rams, Commanders, and Texans. It’s crucial to remember that there is no coasting in this format; the pool of available NFL players will shrink at a faster rate than the number of teams in the Guilloteenie League. The sooner you can craft your roster with players you think will still be around for the Super Bowl the better. That’s why these are the players I’m prioritizing this week for the rest of the year that I would spend big money on this week if available:

Jahmyr Gibbs, Travis Kelce, Sam LaPorta, Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, Amon-Ra St. Brown, James Cook, Isiah Pacheco. Hopefully you already have some of those on your roster and can add one or two more this week.

But as always, week-to-week survival is key. If your roster was devastated by eliminations, you have to focus on restocking your running backs and wide receivers first; do not worry about tight ends and quarterbacks for now.

If you had most of your roster survive the first week, then maybe target one or two studs and conserve money. In this format much more than a regular guillotine league will having more budget than your opponent be crucial in the final week when you are only choosing from two NFL teams.

If you follow this advice, I will likely see you here this week and hopefully in early February as well.