Guilloteenie Fantasy Football Mock Draft: Saquon Barkley is No. 1
We created a Guilloteenie Mock Draft, the new Guillotine Leagues Fantasy Football format.
If you didn’t get enough Guillotine LeagueTM action during the regular season, we are back with Playoff Guilloteenie leagues that will run all the way through the Super Bowl. These leagues follow the same formula as a traditional Guillotine League, with one major difference: there are NO bench spots. Every player on your roster will go towards your point total. In this week’s article, I will walk you through a mock draft in this format.
Starting before the Wild Card round means each league will have only five teams. That means only 40 players—1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 2 FLEX (RB/WR/TE), and 1 TE per team—will be drafted from the 12 teams playing in the opening playoff round. This math alone should reveal two key strategy points when approaching your draft.
Wait on a Tight End and a Quarterback
Only five quarterbacks can be drafted. Assuming some combination of Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, and Jalen Hurts go to the first three teams, that means either Baker Mayfield or Jayden Daniels will still be available for the last pick. I would rather load up on the best six available flex players and settle for Mayfield or Daniels than blow an early pick on a quarterback.
Similarly for tight ends, only one of the top-five scoring tight ends in the regular season even made the playoffs: Mark Andrews. He had a strong finish to the season, but we’ve seen how volatile he’s been. I’d wait until the end and snag a T.J. Hockenson, Zach Ertz, or Pat Freiermuth instead of sniping Andrews in an earlier round. Anyway, you will be able to upgrade your tight end if you survive the first week once Travis Kelce and Sam LaPorta become available, which leads me to my next point…
Do NOT Draft any Lions or Chiefs Players
As mentioned above, there are no bench spots in this format, so if you draft a Lion or Chief, you will get a zero for the week. This is not like the first round of a regular-season Guillotine League, where teams are likely starting multiple fringe starters and you can get away with a goose egg. Here there are only five teams selecting from 12 NFL teams; each team’s makeup will all be starting-caliber players.
If you are able to survive the first week, the initial free agency period is crucial because not only will the Chiefs and Lions players become available (I’m already salivating over Jahmyr Gibbs), but you will also likely need to replace your own players who were eliminated. We will run an article next week regarding that strategy, but for now let’s focus on the draft that will hopefully get you there.
For this mock, I drew the first overall pick. I will list the player drafted with some reasoning followed by the players selected between my picks. Note: the position of the players not selected by me is not an endorsement of where I would have necessarily taken them in a similar position.
(Pick 1.1): Saquon Barkley
For my initial pick, I wanted not only a player who has a high floor but also one who will likely be sticking around for a couple rounds. That is why I picked Saquon Barkley. He’s shown the past few weeks that he can produce even if Jalen Hurts isn’t ready, and the Packers were nothing special at limiting opposing running backs during the regular season, allowing the 13th-most fantasy points to the position. The only other player I considered at this position was Derrick Henry who has a similar outlook. Justin Jefferson will be a popular pick at this position as well, but I’m worried he might be one and done with the Vikings having to go on the road in the first round to a team that has already beaten them this season.
Next players drafted: Josh Allen, Derrick Henry, Jahmyr Gibbs, Justin Jefferson, Jalen Hurts, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Josh Jacobs, Bucky Irving.
You should have seen the look on my face as this played out: TWO Lions and TWO QBs taken in the first two rounds. Don’t let this happen to you!
2.5: Puka Nacua / 3.1: Kyren Williams
Drafting first means I will have back-to-back picks the remainder of the draft. Considering that the other teams have taken Lions players and QBs, I didn’t overthink it and took the best players available. Puka Nacua is averaging over 10 targets per game since his return from injury and caught 7 balls for 106 yards when the teams met earlier this season. Not to mention no team gives up more points per game to opposing wide receivers than the Vikings. He’s got about as safe a floor as any wide receiver, and he’s a steal in the second round for any draft position.
Kyren Williams will sleepwalk to 20+ touches and also had one of his best games of the year against the Vikings when he went for 116 total yards and a score in a game where he also caught a season-high 5 balls. It is certainly risky to stack players in this format, but those two players being available was too good to pass up.
I also would have considered A.J. Brown and Nico Collins here, but I wanted to guarantee having another high-volume running back on my roster.
Next players drafted: A.J. Brown, James Cook, Lamar Jackson, Aaron Jones, Ladd McConkey, Terry McLaurin, Mike Evans, Mark Andrews.
Through almost three full rounds, six players that should not be drafted until the last rounds or not at all have been drafted. That’s an entire round plus worth of players, meaning I should again be able to cash in on players for incredible value at this juncture.
4.5: Nico Collins / 5.1: Courtland Sutton
Getting Nico Collins in the fourth round here is incredible value. He’s caught at least 5 balls in each game since his return from injury, topping at least 59 yards or scoring in each game. Another safe floor whic,h should contribute getting through the week.
Courtland Sutton is another No. 1 receiver and target machine who should see plenty of action in a game that Denver will likely be playing from behind. He will likely only be around for this week, but, again, his floor will help you get through the week.
The only other player I considered here was Joe Mixon, but I didn’t want to stack two Texans considering the late—season offensive woes.
Next players drafted: Brian Robinson, Jordan Addison, Mixon, DeVonta Smith, J.K. Dobbins, Cooper Kupp, Najee Harris, Jalen McMillan.
6.5: Khalil Shakir / 7.1: T.J. Hockenson
Having only one flex spot left, I went with Khalil Shakir, still Josh Allen’s favorite target. He’s averaging 8 targets per game over his last 10 and has seen at least 6 targets in each. Considering the players drafted around this area are either No. 2 options (Kupp, Smith, Addison) or starting running backs in weak run offenses (Robinson, Harris), I was glad to snag another high-volume option this late. However, I would have taken Dobbins if he were available.
So, with my first six picks taken on flex players, I now need a tight end and quarterback. Here, I prioritized tight end since only Andrews had been taken so far. For quarterback, I would be fine with either Baker Mayfield or Jayden Daniels. I went with Hockenson, who is seeing a healthy 6 targets per game on the year. A higher number than the remaining likes of Ertz, Freiermuth, and Dalton Kincaid.
Next players drafted: Zay Flowers, Kincaid, Ertz, Sam LaPorta, George Pickens, Jayden Reed, Baker Mayfield, Devaughn Vele.
There might be some good value in Flowers and Pickens here, but with their respective injury unclarity and recent drops/ineffectiveness, I didn’t want to risk having to rely on those players.
8.5: Jayden Daniels
With Mayfield taken, Jayden Daniels was an easy choice, leaving the likes of Jordan Love, Justin Herbert, Bo Nix, and Sam Darnold unrostered. There are too many good quarterbacks to waste an early pick on one.
Here are the final results: Two high-volume running backs and four No. 1 receivers (Shakir technically is still the most productive receiver). That is a recipe for success from any draft position.
