Nailing the first waiver period for a Playoff Guilloteenie is crucial. Cartis Sparks will walk you through how to evaluate your team (and your opponents’ teams) and bidding strategies on the most available players after the Wild Card round. 

Team Evaluation

Even if you coasted through the first week, your team likely had some casualties on Wild Card Round-losing teams—players like Ladd McConkey, Josh Jacobs, and T.J. Hockenson.

That is why the first waiver period is crucial in this format. In normal Guillotine Leagues™, if you cruise through the first week and like your team, you might be able to coast through the first month or two without spending a dime of your free agent budget. That is not the case here.

As Guilloteenie league teams get chopped each week, so does the available player pool, going from 12 to 8, to 4, and finally, down to 2 in the Super Bowl. You have to be constantly evaluating your team and improving it when you can.

Consider these two teams that likely coasted to easy survivals last week:

Team A

Team B

Team A can go into next week needing to only replace their TE, whereas Team B is going into next week needing to replace everyone but a TE—that player needs to add seven new players!

While those two examples are extremes, I will define three categories of bidding strategies when discussing the available free-agent crop.

Desperation

This team is similar to Team B. If you need to replace 5 or more players, you have to open up the coffer and start spending. This category does not apply to tight ends and quarterbacks since you can get a good enough option during free add/drop.

Could Upgrade

Maybe you need to only replace 2-3 players. You can get away with spending some money if you can get a big upgrade at one spot and some filler for the others.

Keep Them Honest

You are closer to Team A and only need 1 replacement. You want to save your money, but keep the floor high enough to force others to spend while getting a bargain if they cheap out.

I can’t stress enough how advantageous it is to keep your money as long as possible. If you can make it to the finals with more money than your opponent, when you are only picking from two NFL teams, you can dictate where the players go and position yourself where they will be stuck with second and third-stringers. But as always, survival is the name of the game, so do what you gotta do to survive each week.

The most chopped players across all Guilloteenie leagues last week were A.J. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, Jalen Hurts, Aaron Jones, Jordan Addison, Mark Andrews, Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, J.K. Dobbins, and Lamar Jackson.

When we expand that list to include players still available, we add Cooper Kupp, Brian Robinson, DeVonta Smith, and Saquon Barkley.

It's no surprise that two Lions ended up on this list, but if you are a lucky manager who survived while drafting a Gibbs, St. Brown, or even Travis Kelce, then you are in prime position going forward. I will also include other high-profile Chiefs and Lions players such as Sam LaPorta, David Montgomery, Isiah Pacheco, and Xavier Worthy; all of those players have great end-game appeal. Let’s start with them.

Guilloteenie Waiver Wire Adds For The NFL Divisional Round

Lions and Chiefs

Jahmyr Gibbs

No one finished the regular season hotter than Gibbs. I don’t care if David Montgomery comes back. He catches balls, he’s healthy, and he’s as explosive as anyone. It’s hard to imagine any scenario where he has less than 15 touches in a game, and with the Lions a clear favorite to make the Super Bowl, you will likely have him for three more weeks.

  • Desperation: $400
  • Could Upgrade: $250
  • Keep Them Honest: $100

Amon-Ra St. Brown

St. Brown is Jared Goff’s favorite target. He averaged a mouth-watering 11 targets per game during the playoff run last season, topping 77 yards in each. Similar to Gibbs, you should be able to rely on him for three more games.

  • Desperation: $300
  • Could Upgrade: $150
  • Keep Them Honest: $75

Travis Kelce

He’s the best tight end left in the playoffs and Patrick Mahomes’ security blanket who finished the season strong. He’s a known playoff performer who averaged eight catches for 89 yards with three total scores during last season’s run.

  • Desperation: NA
  • Could Upgrade: $200
  • Keep Them Honest: $100

Sam LaPorta

LaPorta also finished the year strong, scoring or topping seven receptions and 63 yards in each of his last four games. He was also surprisingly effective in his playoff debut last season, scoring in one game and managing nine receptions for 65-plus yards in the other two.

I love the idea of stacking both LaPorta and Kelce since both are likely to have longer playoff runs. If they make the Super Bowl, your opponent will be forced to start a backup tight end.

  • Desperation: NA
  • Could Upgrade: $150
  • Keep Them Honest: $75

Isiah Pacheco

Pacheco had decreasing touches in each game since his return from injury. He’ll probably be overlooked, but he might still be banged up. Be sure to monitor his status at practice. There are better options this week, but depending on how he looks against the Texans, he could become an end-game player.

  • Desperation: $25
  • Could Upgrade: $1
  • Keep Them Honest: $0

Xavier Worthy

Worthy has been Patrick Mahomes’ favorite target over the last month of the season, averaging over 10 targets per game and scoring in two of his last three games. He’s good for 3-to-5 rushing attempts as well and has a propensity for big plays. His longevity means I would spend more on him this week than the likes of Puka Nacua or Nico Collins.

  • Desperation: $150
  • Could Upgrade: $100
  • Keep Them Honest: $35

David Montgomery

I would put him in a similar vein as Pacheco, but if he returns healthy, there is great value in having a Montgomery/Gibbs end-game stack as you would have a monopoly on the best running backs in the championship game.

  • Desperation: $50
  • Could Upgrade: $25
  • Keep Them Honest: $1

Jared Goff/Patrick Mahomes

With Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, and Jayden Daniels still alive and only four quarterbacks available to be rostered, I would not spend money on the position. If you wanted to go ahead and pivot from Hurts or Daniels to Goff or Mahomes, I would wait until free add/drop.

Most Chopped Players

A.J. Brown

Five Eagles had more touches than him last week which will put a sour taste in some’s mouths, but he scored in each of his last three regular-season games while averaging over ten targets per. I like him as a value desperation pickup. 

  • Desperation: $150
  • Could Upgrade: $100
  • Keep Them Honest: $50

Jalen Hurts/Lamar Jackson

If one of these players is available, that likely means you have Josh Allen or Jayden Daniels, it’s not worth spending to pivot to one of these guys when the others essentially have the same projection. 

  • Desperation: NA
  • Could Upgrade: $10
  • Keep Them Honest: $1

Mark Andrews

He was probably the first tight end taken in your draft in the mid-rounds, so it’s no surprise he ended up here. With each team likely only starting one tight end last week and this week, there’s no reason to spend on a tight end now. Even if Andrews, La Porta, and Kelce are gone or out of your price range, I’d be happy with starting Zach Ertz, Dallas Goedert, or a healthy Tyler Higbee for free this week.

  • Desperation: NA
  • Could Upgrade: $10
  • Keep Them Honest: $1

Cooper Kupp

It’s amazing that we are only three years removed from Cooper Kupp having perhaps the best post-season run by a wide receiver we’ve ever seen. Unfortunately, he’s a decoy these days seeing no more than three targets in each of his last four games. I’d throw a cheap bid on him if desperate, but it’s hard to see him as an upgrade.

  • Desperation: $25
  • Could Upgrade: $1
  • Keep Them Honest: $0

Brian Robinson/Austin Ekeler

Robinson was ineffective last week as well as the last month of the season as Austin Ekeler has come on strong in his return from injury. The Eagles allow the second-fewest points to opposing running backs, so I want no part of Robinson in a likely one-and-done game. Ekeler has higher upside, he will likely be free, and he had his best game of the year against the Eagles earlier this season when he caught eight balls for 89 yards. 

  • Desperation (Robinson/Ekeler): $15/$25
  • Could Upgrade: $1/$5
  • Keep Them Honest: $0/$1

DeVonta Smith

There are too many mouths to feed in this offense, and it’s hard to see A.J. Brown having another quiet game. Smith had games of 8-51-0 and 6-29-0 which feel like ceilings here, but he should have good desperation value.

  • Desperation: $75
  • Could Upgrade: $25
  • Keep Them Honest: $1

Saquon Barkley/Derrick Henry

I’ll put these two in the same boat. I don’t think they’ll make the Super Bowl, but they will likely get you two more weeks and they are the most reliable high-volume running backs left. They are just as valuable as Jahmyr Gibbs at this point.

  • Desperation: $350
  • Could Upgrade: $200
  • Keep Them Honest: $100

Likely One and Done Studs

Nico Collins/Puka Nacua/Kyren Williams/Terry McLaurin/Joe Mixon

If any of these guys are already on your roster, stay the course for the week, but if I’m desperate, I would be looking for a player likely to be around for a couple more weeks.

  • Desperation: $100
  • Could Upgrade: $75
  • Keep Them Honest: $50

You can still join and draft your Guilloteenie teams in four-team leagues that run now through the Super Bowl! Sign up and get started on the best sweat in Fantasy Football below!