Jake Nagy breaks down Guilloteenie League strategy and waiver recommendations for Super Bowl LIX.
The final, Super Bowl edition of the Guilloteenie waiver run is here, and we’re here to help you strategize your spending and win the title.
The player pool is the smallest it’ll get: With only two NFL teams left and only two teams alive in your Playoff Guilloteenie, this week is crucial for bidding.
Since this is the last week of bidding, we’re not holding anything back. It’s time to empty the bank account and grab the guys you need — you can’t take it with you!
Itching for more fantasy football action? Guillotine Leagues still has postseason Guilloteenie contests available that run through the Super Bowl! Sign up below and start drafting TODAY!
Team Evaluation
Throughout the playoffs, we’ve outlined three categories you could utilize for self-evaluation of your roster:
- Desperation: You need to replace five or more players and spend big, particularly on running backs and wide receivers.
- Could Upgrade: You may need to replace two to four players. Maybe you spend big on an upgrade at one spot and marginally improve elsewhere.
- Keep Them Honest: You’re feeling really good about your team and maybe only need one replacement. While you’re in a spot to save money, you still want to send bids through in case some good players fall through the cracks.
We’ll be using these same categories to outline strategy for the remainder of this column, with a few exceptions.
Opponent Evaluation
Especially in the latter stages of a Guillotine League, it’s important to evaluate your opponents’ rosters, as well as your own, to inform your bidding strategy.
If you only need to replace two to three players and your opponent needs to replace four or five, you know they’ll be trying to spend big on the top guys. Conversely, if you need to replace far more players than your opponent, you can infer they may not be willing to spend as much.
Additionally, keep an eye on how much FAAB your opponent has left. If your opponent spent big last week, they may be pinching pennies this week.
Top-10 Most-Chopped Players
The top-10 most-chopped players from the Conference Championship games are as follows:
- Josh Allen
- Brian Robinson
- Travis Kelce
- DeAndre Hopkins
- Dalton Kincaid
- Isiah Pacheco
- Khalil Shakir
- Austin Ekeler
- DeVonta Smith
- Terry McLaurin
When we throw out players whose teams were eliminated this past weekend, we add the following players:
- Hollywood Brown (ranking among most-chopped players: 14)
- Kareem Hunt (15)
- Dallas Goedert (18)
- Jalen Hurts (19)
- A.J. Brown (21)
- Xavier Worthy (22)
Players to Bid on This Week
Travis Kelce
Despite the dud last weekend (and despite how well Dallas Goedert has been playing), I’m still confidently starting Travis Kelce as TE1 in the Super Bowl. If you were rocking with Zach Ertz or, even worse, Dalton Kincaid, open up the FAAB to get him. If you have Goedert and need to improve elsewhere, probably stay away. However, if you have Goedert, your roster is looking good, and you have plenty of FAAB, this is an outstanding spot to play bully TE and virtually guarantee a sub-five score from your opponent’s TE slot.
- Desperation (no TE, your opponent has Goedert): 75% of your remaining FAAB
- Could Upgrade (you have Goedert, opponent has no TE): 25%
- Keep Them Honest: 1% or no bid
DeAndre Hopkins
DeAndre Hopkins is solely a dart throw to score a touchdown, except you’re aiming your dart at the bullseye in 30 mph wind gusts.
- Do not bid
Isiah Pacheco
This is tough because, on the one hand, Isiah Pacheco is arguably the best option at RB remaining behind Saquon Barkley. On the other hand, Pacheco has been wildly ineffective, cedes snaps and touches to Kareem Hunt and even Samaje Perine, and offers little to no value as a receiver. You’re praying for a goal-line score.
- Desperation: 33%
- Could Upgrade: 25%
- Keep Them Honest: 5%
DeVonta Smith
DeVonta Smith has put up some lackluster receiving lines during the playoffs, but he posted 7 catches for 100 yards on 9 targets in Super Bowl 57 against these Chiefs two years ago. He’s the second-best option at wide receiver in this game and will benefit from fewer snaps against Trent McDuffie.
- Desperation: 60%
- Could Upgrade: 40%
- Keep Them Honest: 20%
Hollywood Brown
Start a Chiefs wide receiver at your own risk. Hollywood Brown offers less touchdown upside than, say, DeAndre Hopkins, but offers a slightly higher PPR floor. By slightly, I mean like one more catch.
- Do not bid
Kareem Hunt
See: Pacheco, Isiah. Kareem Hunt offers a higher floor by virtue of his receiving work but isn’t explosive enough and isn’t on the field enough to feel great about starting him. Honestly, I like Hunt more than Pacheco, which I guess makes Hunt RB2 in the Super Bowl. Watch: Kenneth Gainwell or Will Shipley are going to end up as RB2 behind Saquon Barkley.
- Desperation: 35%
- Could Upgrade: 28%
- Keep Them Honest: 7%
Dallas Goedert
Similar advice for Travis Kelce above. Dallas Goedert has looked outstanding these playoffs, proving a reliable target for Jalen Hurts while finishing plays with a violent ferocity we haven’t seen since before he went down with injury earlier this year. Goedert is not a bad consolation if you don’t have Kelce, and he could frankly outdo Kelce in the Super Bowl.
- Desperation (no TE, your opponent has Kelce): 65%
- Could Upgrade (you have Kelce, opponent has no TE): 30%
- Keep Them Honest: 1% or no bid
Jalen Hurts
Despite the outlier rushing performance from Patrick Mahomes in the AFC Championship, Jalen Hurts is still Super Bowl QB1 from a fantasy perspective. Unlike tight end, you can only start one quarterback, so we can’t bully our opponent into starting Kenny Pickett, unfortunately. You can still drop Mahomes for Hurts, though.
- Desperation (lost your QB, opponent has Mahomes): 25%
- Could Upgrade (you own Mahomes): 5%
- Keep Them Honest: Do not bid
A.J. Brown
A.J. Brown improved upon his first two lackluster playoff outings with a 96-yard outburst in the NFC Championship game. That’s the same yardage output he posted in Super Bowl 57, going 6-96-1 on eight targets in that game. Brown is comfortably the Super Bowl WR1 in this format, and you should get him if you can. If you don’t have him, I’m comfortable throwing close to 50% of my FAAB at him, if not more.
Xavier Worthy
Xavier Worthy is the only Chiefs wideout I feel remotely comfortable starting. He sees the most designed touches among the group and is also their best deep ball threat.
- Desperation: 25%
- Could Upgrade: 10%
- Keep Them Honest: 5%
Itching for more fantasy football action? Guillotine Leagues still has postseason Guilloteenie contests available that run through the Super Bowl! Sign up below and start drafting TODAY!
