The penultimate Guilloteenie waiver Run is here, and we’re here to help you strategize your spending and stay alive. 

The player pool isn’t getting any bigger: With only four NFL teams left and only three teams alive in your Playoff Guilloteenie, this week is crucial for bidding. 

Like a standard Guillotine League, the easiest path to victory is to have the most money toward the end of the season. If you end up with the most money next week, you’ll have your pick of the best players playing in the Super Bowl. However, you can’t take it with you, and this is the second-to-last week of bidding, so you’ll be seeing some inflated dollar recommendations because of that. Let’s dive in.

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Team Evaluation

Last week, we outlined three categories you could utilize for self-evaluation of your roster:

  • Desperation: You need to replace five or more players and spend big, particularly on running backs and wide receivers.
  • Could Upgrade: You may need to replace two to four players. Maybe you spend big on an upgrade at one spot and marginally improve elsewhere.
  • Keep Them Honest: You’re feeling really good about your team and maybe only need one replacement. While you’re in a spot to save money, you still want to send bids through in case some good players fall through the cracks.

We’ll be using these same categories to outline strategy for the remainder of this column.

Opponent Evaluation

Especially in the latter stages of a Guillotine League, it’s important to evaluate your opponents’ rosters, as well as your own, to inform your bidding strategy. 

If you only need to replace two to three players and your opponents each need to replace four or five, you know they’ll be trying to spend big on the top guys. Conversely, if you need to replace far more players than your opponents, you can infer they may not be willing to spend as much. 

Additionally, keep an eye on how much FAAB your opponents have left. If your opponents spent big last week, they may be pinching pennies this week.

Top-10 Most-Chopped Players

The top-10 most-chopped players from the Divisional Round are as follows:

  1. Lamar Jackson
  2. David Montgomery
  3. Isiah Pacheco
  4. Josh Allen
  5. Cooper Kupp
  6. A.J. Brown
  7. Derrick Henry
  8. DeVonta Smith
  9. Mark Andrews
  10. Kyren Williams

When we throw out players whose teams were eliminated this past weekend, we add the following player: 

  1. DeAndre Hopkins (Ranking among most-chopped players: 13)
  2. Khalil Shakir (14)
  3. Xavier Worthy (16)
  4. James Cook (17)
  5. Jalen Hurts (18)
  6. Dallas Goedert (19)

Players to Bid on This Week

Isiah Pacheco

Isiah Pacheco is coming off an 18-yard rushing performance in which he did not catch a pass. Both he and Kareem Hunt look absolutely cooked out there. Pacheco lacks his usual ferocious running style and is clearly not 100%. The Ravens were able to rip off big chunks on the ground in Buffalo last weekend, but I don’t see it from Pacheco and the Kansas City offense. Only roster him if you simply need a warm body.

  • Desperation: $40
  • Could Upgrade: $1
  • Keep Them Honest: Do Not Bid

Josh Allen

If you tier the remaining quarterbacks, Josh Allen and Jayden Daniels are Tier 1. If you don’t have Daniels, I’d open up the wallet for Allen. They both offer a significant positional advantage over Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes. Allen put up 23.98 points in Buffalo’s Week 11 victory against Kansas City.

  • Desperation: $500
  • Could Upgrade (you own Hurts or Mahomes): $250
  • Keep Them Honest (you own Daniels): Do Not Bid

A.J. Brown

Arthur Juan Brown finds himself on this list for the second consecutive week, depriving his fantasy owners of any excellence whatsoever, be it inner or outer. Jalen Hurts is absolutely tanking the Eagles’ passing attack and consequently Brown’s fantasy value. He’s still worth a shot given the lack of alternatives, but it’s hard to feel good about him.

  • Desperation: $300
  • Could Upgrade: $150
  • Keep Them Honest: $50

DeVonta Smith

Same situation as Brown, but DeVonta Smith offers high-end WR2 upside as opposed to Brown’s mid-WR1 upside.

  • Desperation: $150
  • Could Upgrade: $75
  • Keep Them Honest: $25

DeAndre Hopkins

Whew, this is getting very ugly, very quickly. As displayed last week, DeAndre Hopkins offers one-target, zero-reception downside. He basically needs to score to provide value, so he’s a dart throw even with the injuries suffered by the Buffalo secondary last week.

  • Desperation: $15
  • Could Upgrade: $1
  • Keep Them Honest: Do Not Bid

Khalil Shakir

Khalil Shakir is the master of putting up 12 PPR points. He has put up 12.30 and 12.10 the last two weeks, and when you include those performances with his regular season output, he scored between 10.0 and 15.9 PPR fantasy points over 50% of the time. Hey, I can’t be mad, we love a safe floor over here at Guillotine Leagues.

  • Desperation: $125
  • Could Upgrade: $60
  • Keep Them Honest: $20

Xavier Worthy

The anti-Khalil Shakir! Xavier Worthy offers the same craterous floor as DeAndre Hopkins but has a substantially higher ceiling. We’re all about floor here, but if you have a team full of Shakirs, I’m fine with juicing up your lineup with a little Worthy.

  • Desperation: $60
  • Could Upgrade: $30
  • Keep Them Honest: $10

James Cook

The Bills have fully integrated their own version of the tush push/brotherly shove into their offense, which severely caps James Cook’s ceiling. It also craters his floor, since so much of his production was predicated upon multiple scoring opportunities per game in a high-powered offense. Still, he’s arguably the second-best RB option available.

  • Desperation: $400
  • Could Upgrade: $200
  • Keep Them Honest: $100

Jalen Hurts

The only reason you’d be bidding on Jalen Hurts is if you have Patrick Mahomes or you lost your quarterback last weekend. He still provides decent rushing value but offers almost nothing as a passer anymore.

  • Desperation (you lost your quarterback): $50
  • Could Upgrade (you own Mahomes): $1
  • Keep Them Honest: Do Not Bid

Dallas Goedert

Dallas Goedert outscored every Eagles pass catcher last weekend and is a Tier 2 Tight End the rest of the way, along with Zach Ertz, with Travis Kelce obviously owning Tier 1 by himself. If you own a Bills tight end or lost yours, you’re desperate. Goedert put up 11.10 PPR points in his lone game against Washington this season.

  • Desperation: $250
  • Could Upgrade (you have Ertz): Do Not Bid
  • Keep Them Honest (you have Kelce): Do Not Bid

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