Welcome to Week 10, Guillotine Leaguers!

I’m here every Tuesday offering waiver wire guidance to help you strategize your bidding. 

For most of you, your roster is very different from the one you started with. You've improved it with acquisitions that have kept you alive to Week 10. 

But, how many of your players are "end game" players?  If you're going to win a guillotine league, you're going to have to finish with studs at every position, end-game players. You simply cannot spend meaningful amounts of FAAB on anyone who doesn't help you achieve your end-game roster.

Because this format is new and foreign to many of you, it might be helpful for you to see a championship-grade guillotine roster for Week 17: 

That's what an end-game roster looks like, filled with reliable high-end producers.  

So, when you're entering your bids this week, focus on two buckets: Cheap guys ($1-5) who can help you for a few weeks, or expensive end-game guys. And before you blow $400 on an end-game guy, remember, you need eight of them.

This document is in four sections:

Also, be sure to listen to the Chop Podcast, for greater detail and conversation about the week's waiver wire decision.

And guillotine league players, you can get 20% off the amazing tool set at FantasyLife, including my guillotine-specific rankings, by using the promo code "CHOP20".

Self-Evaluation

Throughout this column, you'll see a lot of specific bidding advice. Those values need to be weighed against the strength of your roster and your likelihood of survival. You can’t bid correctly if you don’t establish your level of desperation—hopefully very little.

If you have a short-term roster problem due to bye weeks or injury, your goal should be to solve the problem with a cheap replacement player to cover your roster for a few weeks.

If your roster has a long-term problem, you’ll need to be more aggressive to land a good replacement player who can sustain you for months.

Broad Bidding Strategies

There’s no single way to win a guillotine league. But I can safely say that the clearest path to a guillotine league championship is to survive until mid-season and have a lot of FAAB left. In short, save your FAAB. Except for the truly desperate, your goal is to conserve cash.

So, how much should you spend? Here’s a broad rule of thumb:

  • Elite players: These are guys who’ll be on your roster for the rest of the year. This category of player would be first and second-round picks if drafting today. Think, Justin Jefferson, Saquon Barkley, CeeDee Lamb, or Derrick Henry. I recommend maxing your bidding on elite players at $200-$300.
     
  • Middle-tier players: These guys are probable starters, but only for another month or so. $5-$10. Be careful here. Throwing down $20 twice a week will drain your funds in short order.
     
  • Lower-tier players: These are short-term helpers or depth guys for your bench. $1-$5. 

The 10 Most Chopped Players From Week 9

You'll note that I've added a new field, "End game roster" for each player, with a designation about whether he's someone who can help you get to the finish line.

10. NYJ RB Breece Hall (16.3% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 8.7/10
  • Upcoming schedule: @ARI, IND, BYE
  • Last week's median price: $202
  • End-game roster? YES
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $175

Braelon Allen has seen a slight uptick in work the past couple of weeks, but Breece Hall remains the undisputed alpha running back for Todd Downing. He's also the clear winner in passing downs and goal-line usage. So, there's a lot to like about Hall's prospects as an end-game runner. He's got two favorable matchups before heading into his bye.

9. WAS RB Brian Robinson (16.4% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 6.2/10
  • Upcoming schedule: PIT, @PHI, DAL
  • Last week's median price: $84
  • End-game roster? YES (I think)
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $50

Unfortunately, some people didn't find out about Robinson's late scratch on Sunday and he ended up chopping a lot of people. Robinson likely returns this week, in time for a neutral matchup with Pittsburgh, before a difficult one against Philly. Robinson's limited pass catching makes him dangerous in this format because when his rushing doesn't click, he can't fall back on PPR points. 

8. CIN WR Ja'Marr Chase (16.6% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 7.9/10
  • Upcoming schedule: @BAL, @LAC, BYE
  • Last week's median price: $322
  • End-game roster? YES
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $250

Somehow, without Tee Higgins in the game, Joe Burrow threw five touchdowns and none landed in the arms of his best receiver. You already know Chase is one of fantasy football's best receivers, ranking as WR1 in ESPN's scoring system. He's one of the few guys worth breaking the bank for. But, let's note his looming schedule includes a tricky game at Los Angeles (6th-fewest fantasy points to WRs) and then a bye. 

7. IND RB Jonathan Taylor (17% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 8.2/10
  • Upcoming schedule: BUF, @NYJ, DET
  • Last week's median price: $230
  • End-game roster? YES
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $200

Taylor's productivity goes up in Anthony Richardson starts, and after Joe Flacco's disappointing game against Minnesota, Richardson may start sooner rather than later. Before last week's dud game, Taylor had been very safe, scoring or topping 100 yards in every game. His schedule is promising. The Bills and Jets have elite pass defenses, which many teams try to counter by running copiously. 

6. LAR RB Kyren Williams (17.1% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 8.8/10
  • Upcoming schedule: MIA, @NE, PHI
  • Last week's median price: $305
  • End-game roster? YES
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $300

Guys like Williams don't fall into waivers very often. His incredibly high utilization (third-highest among all runners) ensures that Williams is constantly touching the ball. Plus, he usually snares a few receptions and he gets the ball at the goal line. 

5. NO WR Chris Olave (17.5% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 5.4/10
  • Upcoming schedule: ATL, CLE, BYE
  • Last week's median price: $55
  • End-game roster? NO
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: No bid

Sadly, it looks like Chris Olave will miss at least a month with his fifth known concussion, dating back to Ohio State. In this format, we can't hold injured players for a month. 

4. ARI WR Marvin Harrison (17.6% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 6.3/10
  • Upcoming schedule: NYJ, BYE, @SEA
  • Last week's median price: $89
  • End game roster? NO
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $1

Here we are again. Should we just rename this section the "The Marvin Harrison Memorial Top Chop List"? In his nine games, Harrison has finished as WR47 or worse five times. If you're thinking about taking a stab at Harrison, take a look at the schedule. This Sunday, I wouldn't start him against D.J. Reed and Sauce Gardner. And then he goes on bye.

3. ARI QB Kyler Murray (19.8% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: NA
  • Upcoming schedule: NYJ, BYE, @SEA 
  • Last week's median price: $17
  • End game roster? NO
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $5

Last Sunday was his first game without a touchdown. But, he's been teetering on the edge of dud games all season. He's thrown either 0 or 1 touchdown in 7 of 9 games. He's been under 214 passing yards in 7 of 9 games. And his wheels have gone flat, with less than 19 rushing yards in three of the past four.

2. LAR WR Puka Nacua (19.9% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 4.4/10
  • Upcoming schedule: MIA, @NE, PHI
  • Last week's median price: $203
  • End game roster? YES
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $200

Obviously, nobody expected Nacua to get ejected from last week's game, but it might create a rare buy-low opportunity on an end-game level wideout. When Nacua is healthy, he's as dominating as any receiver, as evidenced two weeks ago when Nacau roasted the Vikings. 

1. PHI WR A.J. Brown (20.5% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 7.8/10
  • Upcoming schedule: @DAL, WAS, @LAR
  • Last week's median price: $251
  • End game roster? YES
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $250

Brown has suffered declining yardage in every game, which feels worrisome. In the past three weeks, the Eagles have enjoyed big early leads, which has resulted in a major downtick in passes thrown, just 14, 20, and 24. That could happen again this Sunday against the Cooper Rush-led Cowboys, but it's still a great opportunity for Brown against a sagging secondary. And after Dallas, it's all clear for Brown, who can dominate games and help deliver a guillotine championship. 

Waiver Advice For “Regular” Guys

These are the caliber of guys who are popping up on “traditional league” waiver wires, but you'll also want to consider for guillotine usage. They are generally cheap and could provide short-term help.

Week over week, our threshold for these types of guys is rising. And increasingly, it's less about the couple of bucks that you'll spend to acquire them and more about the opportunity cost of the roster spot.

NYG QB Daniel Jones

Jones is coming off his best fantasy finish of the year, QB3 last week, including three touchdowns. But more compelling is his matchup with Carolina this week, a defense that has allowed touchdowns to every opposing quarterback. The similarly-mobile Bo Nix just rolled up a four-touchdown performance against Carolina two weeks ago. If you choose to hold Jones through his Week 11 bye, he'll return to favorable matchups against Tampa Bay and Dallas.

Charch's recommended bid: $1.

CAR RB Jonathon Brooks

I'm listing Jonathon Brooks mostly for the opportunity to espouse the virtues of Chuba Hubbard who is toiling in relative obscurity in Carolina. Hubbard has been great, despite minimal support from his passing game. He’s 5th in rushing yards. He’s 5th in yards per carry. He's 9th in Yards After Contact. He's 7th in rushing yards over expectation. Hubbard's effectiveness affords Dave Canales the luxury of bringing back Brooks very slowly.

Charch's recommended bid: No bid.

PIT RB Jaylen Warren

Warren wasn't heavily rostered to begin with, and last week's bye pushed his ownership levels even lower. But Warren deserves a spot on your roster due to his improved health, improved play, and the new energy Russell Wilson has brought to the Steelers offense. Coincidence or not, Warren's two best games have come in Wilson's two starts. And the bye week pretty much ensures that he's past the nagging knee injury that he was dealing with for much of the season. If anything happens to Najee Harris, Warren would turn into a top-15 runner.

Charch's recommended bid: $5.

KC WR DeAndre Hopkins

On Monday night, everything fell into place perfectly for DeAndre Hopkins to splash in his second game with Kansas City. He ran the second-most routes, behind only Xavier Worthy. And his target share was a healthy 26%. Hopkins brings some physicality to the position that the Chiefs have lacked since Rashee Rice's injury. Even when JuJu Smith-Schuster returns, I don't see Hopkins losing any meaningful snaps.

Charch's recommended bid: $10.

SF WR Jauan Jennings

Jauan Jennings should see the majority of snaps left behind by Brandon Aiyuk's trip to injured reserve. Some people think Ricky Pearsall will take that role, but my money's on Jennings. He has been one of the league's best blockers, which will keep him on the field. And, in case you've forgotten, in Week 3 when Jennings was needed to carry the team's passing offense, he stepped up with an absurd 11 catches for 175 yards and three scores.

Charch's recommended bid: $10.

NO TE Taysom Hill

In the Saints injury-ravaged offense, Hill is, effectively, RB2, WR2, TE2 and QB2. In any given game, Hill can give you a little of everything, like last week, when ran a touchdown, caught four passes, and threw a pass.

He finished as the third-highest-scoring tight end last week. A word of caution: Hill's history is littered with dud games. But the Saints' dearth of healthy options suggests that his usage will remain high enough to make him guillotine viable.

Charch's recommended bid: $1.