Welcome to Week 11, Guillotine Leaguers! 

I’m here every Tuesday offering waiver wire guidance to help you strategize your bidding. 

For those of you playing at GuillotineLeagues.com, you should know about an important December rule that will affect your waiver bidding strategies, even now in mid-November.

Beginning with the players chopped in Week 14's action, chopped players are unavailable for the rest of the year. All other free agents remain available for bidding.

You're probably wondering why we do it that way.

In the early days of Guillotine Leagues, when none of us really knew what we were doing, we allowed chopped players to be available all the way until Week 17.  But it created a serious gameplay imbalance: Overwhelmingly, the only way to win was to save FAAB to the end of the year, because the rosters getting chopped in Weeks 14, 15, and 16 were absurdly stacked.

We want Guillotine Leagues to be winnable by as many strategies as possible, including spending cash early in the season. The best way to accomplish that is to restrict chopped players after Week 14 and beyond. 

What's the point of this rather lengthy, boring story?  You've only got four more weeks of open, unrestricted bidding. Don't over-save your money.

This document is in four sections: 

Also, be sure to listen to the Chop Podcast, for greater detail and conversation about the week's waiver wire decision.

And guillotine league players, you can get 20% off the amazing toolset at FantasyLife, including my guillotine-specific rankings, by using the promo code "CHOP20".

Self Evaluation

Throughout this column, you'll see a lot of specific bidding advice. Those values need to be weighed against the strength of your roster and your likelihood of survival. You can’t bid correctly if you don’t establish your level of desperation—hopefully very little.

If you have a short-term roster problem due to bye weeks or injury, your goal should be to solve the problem with a cheap replacement player to cover your roster for a few weeks.

If your roster has a long-term problem, you’ll need to be more aggressive to land a good replacement player who can sustain you for months. 

When seeing my recommended bid amounts, add or subtract dollars that represent your team's level of desperation.

Broad Bidding Strategies

There’s no single way to win a guillotine league. But I can safely say, that the clearest path to a guillotine league championship is to survive until mid-season and have a lot of FAAB left. In short, save your FAAB. Except for the truly desperate, your goal is to conserve cash.

So, how much should you spend? Here’s a broad rule of thumb:

  • Elite players: These are guys who’ll be on your roster for the rest of the year. This category of player would be first and second-round picks if drafting today. Think, Justin Jefferson, Saquon Barkley, or Derrick Henry. I recommend maxing your bidding on elite players at $200-$300.
     
  • Middle-tier players: These guys are probable starters, but only for another month or so. I recommend spending only $5-$10. Be careful here. Throwing down $20 twice a week will drain your funds in short order.
     
  • Lower-tier players: These are short-term helpers or depth guys for your bench. $1-$5. 

The 10 Most Chopped Players From Week 10

You can make a case that all ten of these guys are "end game" players for your roster. CeeDee Lamb is a pretty big question mark, given that Cooper Rush may not be a functional quarterback. But otherwise, these are all players worthy of substantial bids.

If you're curious, 99.8% of teams with Ja'Marr Chase survived last week. I have no idea how the other 0.2% managed to get chopped. 

As discussed last week, you should be focusing your high-dollar bidding on end-game players. These are guys who you'll be starting all the way to the championship in Week 17. Below, you'll see that I've added a field to designate end-game players.

10. HOU WR Nico Collins (16.3% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 8.9/10
  • Upcoming schedule: @DAL, TEN, @JAC, BYE
  • Last week's median price: $143
  • End-game player: YES
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $130

I'm assuming Collins will play this week after being a near miss last Sunday night. His remaining schedule is a mix of very easy (DAL, JAC, BAL) and very hard (TEN, MIA, KC) opponents.  And he's still got his bye week remaining.  So, even though Collins is awesome, I'm recommending a cheaper price because of some possible dud games.

9. MIA RB De'Von Achane (16.8% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 8.0/10
  • Upcoming schedule: LV, NE, @GB
  • Last week's median price: $213
  • End-game player: YES 
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $175

I'm going to keep saying this, even though it never seems to change anything: De'Von Achane isn't a workhorse back. He's best suited in a Sonic & Knuckles-style backfield, where he can tag-team with a more powerful back. Yet, Raheem Mostert got zero carries on Monday night. Go figure. Clearly, Achane is more valuable with Tua, but Monday's dud highlights some troubling inconsistency that we've seen all year. Still, Achane's pass-catching abilities provide safety and make him an end-game player.

8. CHI RB D'Andre Swift (17% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 7.8/10
  • Upcoming schedule: GB, MIN, @DET
  • Last week's median price: $84
  • End-game player: MAYBE 
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $40

This is a very tough call. On one hand, Swift is a rare workhorse, getting almost 70% of Chicago's rushing attempts since the opener. And he's been effective, as we saw in October when he was a top-11 back four times. But the Chicago offense is completely broken and Shane Waldron's departure is unlikely to magically reverse it. Still, the Bears can't possibly play worse than the past two weeks, right? RIGHT? So, you could be buying Swift at his season-low price, and have a flex-level starter to the end of the year.

7. NYJ WR Garrett Wilson (17.4% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 8.6/10
  • Upcoming schedule: IND, BYE, SEA
  • Last week's median price: $155
  • End-game player: YES 
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $150

It's not often that a team's leading receiver is on this list, yet here's Garrett Wilson, coming off a 5-41-0 line. Davante Adams was worse, but he finished as the 27th-most chopped player because he was in fewer lineups. Until last Sunday, Wilson had been very reliable, particularly since the Adams acquisition. With a massive 8.6 utilization score, it's clear Aaron Rodgers wants to get him the ball often. The downside with Wilson is simply that the Jets offense isn't reliable and dud games are going to happen. He's got a positive matchup this week against Indy, but a bye the following week.

6. BAL WR Zay Flowers (17.8% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 7.0/10
  • Upcoming schedule: @PIT, @LAC, PHI
  • Last week's median price: $95
  • End-game player: MAYBE
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $30

Zay Flowers is a very good player whose only "flaw" is that his surrounding team is too good. In some games, Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson are going to hoard all the fantasy points. If you're contemplating if Diontae Johnson was eating into his snaps, the answer is no; he was on the field for 92% of the team's passing plays last week. This year, Flowers has posted five games as a top-13 wideout. But also, five games as WR41 or worse. That kind of volatility is very dangerous in this format.

5. DAL WR CeeDee Lamb (18.6% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 8.2/10
  • Upcoming schedule: HOU, @WAS, NYG
  • Last week's median price: $150
  • End-game player: NO
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $0

With Dak Prescott expected to miss the rest of the season, I'm completely out on the Cowboys. Even CeeDee Lamb. Much like we saw with Tyreek Hill when Miami couldn't field a functional offense, Lamb is likely to post inconsistent (or worse, consistently bad) results under Trey Lance and/or Cooper Rush. Dallas only scored six points last week, and that kind of result is replicable in any game going forward.

4. MIN WR Justin Jefferson (19% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 8.8/10
  • Upcoming schedule: @TEN, @CHI, ARI
  • Last week's median price: $340
  • End-game player: YES 
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $275

This is going to be expensive. Obviously, Jefferson is an amazing player who rarely finds his way to this list (against Jacksonville, no less). Last week was the first time all year that he'd finished lower than WR20. He's WR2 on the season. So, the only question is, do you push all your chips in?  Your end-game roster needs eight superstars. Do you have five, six, or seven star players now? If not, you can't put down a massive bid on Jefferson.

3. PHI WR DeVonta Smith (19.5% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 7.1/10
  • Upcoming schedule: WAS, @LAR, @BAL
  • Last week's median price: $80
  • End-game player: MAYBE 
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $10

As you're trying to cobble together your end-game roster, DeVonta Smith is a tough call. Even though Smith is very talented, he's the No. 2 option in Philadelphia, behind A.J. Brown. And No. 2 WRs are prone to dud games because of inconsistent volume. Since Brown's return from injury, Smith has posted two good games and two total clunkers. He's got three easy matchups left on the schedule (BAL, CAR, DAL) and he's worth rostering for those specific games. 

2. PHI RB Saquon Barkley (21% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 8.5/10
  • Upcoming schedule: WAS, @LAR, @BAL
  • Last week's median price: $339
  • End-game player: YES 
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $275

Obviously, Barkley is great, currently sitting at RB4 on the season. But he's posted some dud games, three times finishing as RB24 or worse. In those three games, Jalen Hurts has vultured five rushing touchdowns.  And that's the one reason to show caution on Barkley. The Eagles have the second easiest remaining schedule against the run, with zero stoppers left and four strongly positive matchups. 

1. WAS QB Jayden Daniels (23% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: NA
  • Upcoming schedule: @PHI, DAL, TEN, BYE
  • Last week's median price: $61
  • End-game player: YES 
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $25

Jayden Daniels hasn't looked the same since his rib injury. Or maybe he's just slowing down because he's faced three straight very good passing defenses. A fourth difficult game looms on Thursday as Daniels faces a surging Eagles defense. Over the past five weeks, the Eagles rank No. 1 in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, and No. 1 in passing yards allowed. Daniels is the most mobile quarterback to face the Eagles, but no quarterback has topped 20 rushing yards against Philly all season. And, if that weren't bad enough, he'll face the Eagles again in Week 16. Lastly, Washington is part of the Week 14 byepocalypse. 

Waiver Advice For “Regular” Guys

These are the caliber of guys who are popping up on “traditional league” waiver wires, but you'll also want to consider for guillotine usage.  They're generally cheap and could provide short-term help.

With the season getting longer, this list gets increasingly selective. Your roster should be far better than it was in September, replete with solid contributors. At this stage, you're not going to clog up your roster with longshots.

PIT QB Russell Wilson

In retrospect, it's hard to believe that there was ever any drama surrounding Mike Tomlin's decision to bench Justin Fields for Russell Wilson. Wilson has opened up the entire offense, providing the Steelers with 104 extra yards and 10 points per game more than Fields.  In three games, Wilson has finished as QB3, QB21, and QB9. Wilson faces the bottom-ranked Baltimore pass defense this week and again in Week 16. 

Charch's recommended bid: $1

KC RB Isiah Pacheco

Kareem Hunt has been a major fantasy helper, but his run as the Chiefs' starter will be coming to an end soon. On Monday, Andy Reid indicated Pacheco's timetable for return was "close". But more importantly, you need to understand how ineffective Kareem Hunt has been. Hunt is averaging just 3.6 yards per carry and hasn't topped 3.9 yards per carry in any game since Week 4. Among starters, only Alexander Mattison has a lower average. Hunt ranks 31st in avoided tackle rate. Hunt ranks 37th in yards after contact. Hunt's fantasy success has come through volume, not talent. The point being, Isiah Pacheco will resume command of this backfield as soon as he's able.

Charch's recommended bid: $40

DEN RB Audric Estime

Last week, Sean Peyton told us that Estime would get a longer look. That was an understatement. Estime got 64% of the RB snaps and equally surprising, 21% of the routes run. To my eyes, Estime looked like a lateral move from Javonte Williams, but that's just one game against an elite Chiefs run defense. We'll get a truer look at Estime this week against Atlanta. The Broncos have the second-hardest remaining schedule, with four difficult games and zero positive games remaining.  Note that Denver's bye is Week 14.

Charch's recommended bid: $5

IND WR Adonai Mitchell

I hesitate to list Mitchell because in all probability when Michael Pittman returns, Mitchell will go back to his usual level of usage, which is too small to be trusted. Using the awesome FantasyLife utilization tool, we can see that Mitchell was only seeing a route rate of 24-28% in the six games before subbing in for Pittman last week, when he exploded to a 95% route rate.

Charch's recommended bid: $0

SF WR Jauan Jennings 

A lot of guillotine managers didn't hold Jennings over from his hip injury and bye week, perhaps forgetting that he was going to get most of Brandon Aiyuk's snaps. Whoops. Last week, Jennings posted a team-high 91% snap rate and a massive 95% route rate. Correspondingly, he led the team in targets, receptions, and yards. Jennings is a really good player, and potentially San Francisco's WR1. If things break right, he could be an end-game player for your roster.

Charch's recommended bid: $20

SF WR Ricky Pearsall

I prefer Jauan Jennings by a pretty big margin, but Ricky Pearsall also belongs on guillotine rosters. As the Niners' third receiver, he was on the field for 71% of the snaps over the past two games. As a third receiver, you'll need to pick your spots to start Pearsall, but this week's matchup with Seattle could be one of them.

Charch's recommended bid: $5

TEN WR Calvin Ridley

He's finished as a top-five WR twice in the past three weeks, but Ridley is an incredibly dangerous option in the guillotine format. If you pick him up, you're hoping his production will become more steady in the future, perhaps because Will Levis finally improves. In half of his games, Ridley has finished as WR48 or worse, which demonstrates the lethality of his bad games. He faces Minnesota this week, which seems like an unusually safe opportunity. Minnesota is allowing the third-most yards and fantasy points to receivers.

Charch's recommended bid: $1