Welcome to Week 12, Guillotine Leaguers!

I’m here every Tuesday offering waiver wire guidance to help you strategize your bidding. 

This document is in four sections: 

There are so many amazing aspects of guillotine leagues, but maybe none better than the shifting strategies that unfold over the course of the season. We’re entering a stage where you should be considering whether each one of your rostered players should be dropped outright.  

It’s a wild notion: You could drop a major swath of your current roster, be better for it, and potentially harm a competing manager with your inconsistent players.

If you’re really committed to winning your guillotine league, look at every one of your players, check their schedule and situation. For each player, ask yourself, “How many more times will I start this player?”  How often does each player have sizable downsize? Will this player get me chopped?

Here are a few examples of players who you may want to jettison now, who other managers may spend valuable FAAB upon. 

  • Travis Etienne – Without Trevor Lawrence, the Jaguars offense is stagnant. Plus Tank Bigsby likely returns healthy after the bye.
     
  • Kareem Hunt – Hunt's fantasy success has been through volume, not talent. Among 29 runners with at least 100 carries, Hunt ranks 26th in yards, 29th in yards per carry, and 26th in avoided tackles. With Isiah Pacheco returning as soon as Sunday, Hunt isn't likely to be a viable starter going forward.
     
  • Jaylen Waddle – Obviously, his season has been a disaster, and if you're somehow still alive with him, you can move on.
     
  • Tyler Lockett – It's very possible that Jaxon Smith-Njigba has taken over as the second-leading target for Geno Smith. But even if that's not the case, Lockett's production is likely to be too inconsistent for this stage of the season.
     
  • DeAndre Hopkins – Touchdown-dependent players are far too risky for late-stage guillotine league production.
     
  • DeVonta Smith – Gasp!  He's been highly inconsistent (if not downright disappointing) with just one top-10 finish all year. He's finished as WR22 or worse in five of the past seven games. In a stacked Philly offense, Smith is fourth in priority for touchdown looks.

Those are examples of the type of players that you can consider outright dropping. Look through your roster and make a call that fits your own thinking. 

Important note for those playing at GuillotineLeagues.com! Beginning with the players chopped in Week 14's action, chopped players are unavailable for the rest of the year. All other free agents remain available for bidding. So, you’ve only got three more weeks of bidding on the most coveted free agents. You can find more details about this rule here. 

Also, be sure to listen to the Chop Podcast for greater detail and conversation about the week's waiver wire decision.

And Guillotine League players, you can get 20% off the amazing tool set at FantasyLife, including my guillotine-specific rankings, by using the promo code "CHOP20".

Self-Evaluation

Throughout this column, you'll see a lot of specific bidding advice. Those values need to be weighed against the strength of your roster and your likelihood of survival. You can’t bid correctly if you don’t establish your level of desperation—hopefully very little.

If you have a short-term roster problem due to bye weeks or injury, your goal should be to solve the problem with a cheap replacement player to cover your roster for a few weeks.

If your roster has a long-term problem, you’ll need to be more aggressive to land a good replacement player who can sustain you for months.

Broad Bidding Strategies

We're at a stage where you'll want to spend a healthy chunk of your remaining FAAB. As mentioned above, there are only three weeks left for unrestricted spending. If you've got holes to fill, you can certainly spend now. If you're in good shape, you'll have more great players coming in the next two weeks.

So, how much should you spend? Here’s a broad rule of thumb:

  • Elite players: These are guys who’ll be on your roster for the rest of the year. This category of player would be first and second-round picks if drafting today. Think, Justin Jefferson, Saquon Barkley, CeeDee Lamb, or Derrick Henry. Max your bidding on elite players at $200-$300. And only spend that much if most of the rest of your roster are end-game players.
     
  • Middle-tier players: These guys are probable starters, but only for another month or so. $10-$20.
     
  • Lower-tier players: These are short-term helpers or depth guys for your bench. $1-$5. 

The 10 Most Chopped Players From Week 11

Eight players from our Top 10 list are end-game players, so you've got a lot of great choices this week. These are guys you can roster now, knowing they're startable for the rest of the year. And even the other two guys (Samuel, Jones) are rosterable, at affordable prices.

10. SF WR Deebo Samuel (18.3% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 5.4/10
  • Upcoming schedule: @GB, @BUF, CHI
  • Last week's median price: $32
  • End-game player: NO
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $10

My cursor rested in the "End-game player" field for a loooong time before typing "NO". With Brandon Aiyuk out, Samuel should be a sure-fire weekly fantasy factor. But even last week, with Aiyuk and George Kittle out, Samuel crashed, finishing as WR53.

On the season, Samuel is just WR38, with just one top-10 finish all year. He's one of the format's most disappointing players and I can't give you many good explanations for his drop off. Fortunately, it could get better at any time.

9. ATL RB Bijan Robinson (20% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 8.7/10
  • Upcoming schedule: BYE, LAC, @MIN

Last week's median price: $228

  • End-game player: YES 
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $85

A bye week is never a positive, but boy, the Falcons really need a rest. A long season combined with several key injuries left the Falcons completely flat last week. Compounding matters, after the bye, Robinson faces two of the three best fantasy run defenses, Los Angeles and Minnesota. Those teams have combined to allow just four rushing touchdowns this year. Let someone else overbid on Robinson.

8. BAL QB Lamar Jackson (20.4% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: NA
  • Upcoming schedule: @LAC, PHI, BYE
  • Last week's median price: $156
  • End-game player: YES 
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $35 

Normally very safe, Jackson was completely corralled last week. That game was probably an anomaly against a very good defense. But here comes two more good defenses and a bye week. The Chargers got worked by Joe Burrow last week, but before that had been fantastic, allowing just 223 yards per game and 1.2 touchdowns.

Then in Week 13, Jackson faces the hottest pass defense in the league, Philadelphia. Since Week 6, the Eagles are somehow allowing just 155 yards and 0.3 touchdowns per game. Philly dropped the hammer on the stylistically similar Jayden Daniels last week. He's a bona fide "sabotage drop" candidate on Tuesday.

7. LAR RB Kyren Williams (20.5% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 8.5/10
  • Upcoming schedule: PHI, @NO, BUF
  • Last week's median price: $148
  • End-game player: YES 
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $110

We've found the one Ram who is getting killed by the return of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. Without Kupp and Nacua, Williams was averaging RB7 finishes. With Kupp and Nacua, he drops to RB21.

Last week, Blake Corum worked into the mix a bit more than usual, which could suggest that Williams is tiring after his 216 touches this year—second most. Still, he's a workhorse back on a healthy offense.

6. BAL RB Derrick Henry (20.7% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 7.0/10
  • Upcoming schedule: @LAC, PHI, BYE
  • Last week's median price: $241
  • End-game player: YES 
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $150

This one will test your mettle. Obviously, Derrick Henry is an elite fantasy producer, and potentially, a league-winning player. But look at the schedule. He'll face off against two of the four best run defenses over the past five games. The Chargers have allowed one rushing touchdown all year. For Philly, no back has topped 63 yards since Week 2, and they've only allowed two rushing touchdowns since Week 4. Plus, Baltimore is part of the Week 14 bye. There's a real chance Henry is on this list again.

5. KC TE Travis Kelce (21.1% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 8.8/10
  • Upcoming schedule: @CAR, LV, LAC
  • Last week's median price: $100
  • End-game player: YES 
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $150

After Kelce's two-catch, eight-yard performance, I'm surprised he's not at the top of the list. He was certainly started in every guillotine league. But, Kelce is likely to rebound to his prior form as the Chiefs pivot to the easy part of their schedule with upcoming games against Carolina and Las Vegas.

Early in the season, I might have recommended that you attempt to acquire Kelce even if you already had a starting tight end, to play "Bully TE". But at this stage of the season, there are so few teams left that your opponents already have the tight ends they need. If you still need a reliable tight end, push in some chips on Kelce.

4. MIN RB Aaron Jones (21.4% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 7.6/10
  • Upcoming schedule: @CHI, ARI, ATL
  • Last week's median price: $44
  • End-game player: NO
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $20

Jones has struggled for a month, during which he's averaging just 3.4 yards per carry and has only scored once. For a naturally gifted receiver, his hands are absurdly underutilized by Kevin O'Connell. Since Week 5, Jones is averaging just two targets, one catch, and 19 receiving yards. I don't think Jones is an end-game player for your championship roster, but as a flex player, he's really close. 

3. IND RB Jonathan Taylor (21.6% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 8.2/10
  • Upcoming schedule: DET, @NE, BYE
  • Last week's median price: $101
  • End-game player: YES 
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $100

When Joe Flacco was starting, we kept hearing a narrative from the fantasy community that Taylor's inconsistency was because Anthony Richardson was on the bench. But last week proved that Taylor can be an underperformer with either signal caller. Taylor hasn't scored in three games and over that stretch, he's averaging just 3.7 yards per carry.

Fortunately, no other back is a factor and Taylor remains one of the league's few true workhorse backs. The Detroit run defense is more yielding lately, but there's always a fear that the Lions could run up a multi-touchdown lead by halftime.

2. NYJ WR Garrett Wilson (23.4% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 8.4/10
  • Upcoming schedule: BYE, SEA, @MIA
  • Last week's median price: $62
  • End-game player: YES 
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $20

Due to consecutive lackluster games and a bye week, you're going to be able to get Garrett Wilson at a very affordable price. And I recommend that you do. Wilson is a rare workhorse receiver, ranking No.1 in targets and No. 2 in receptions. That kind of utilization makes him very safe.

Yet, he's also got tremendous upside as we saw in Weeks 5-9 when he was averaging 8 catches, 94 yards, and almost a full touchdown per game. After the bye, three of his next four games are positive matchups.

1. WAS WR Terry McLaurin (25% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 7.2/10
  • Upcoming schedule: DAL, TEN, BYE
  • Last week's median price: $78
  • End-game player: YES 
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $10

I can't help but worry if more teams will follow the blueprint left by the Eagles: Box out McLaurin and defy the Commanders to beat you with someone else. This week's game against Dallas is a strongly positive one, but after that, McLaurin faces a good Tennessee defense and then goes into his bye week. I'm showing restraint here.

Waiver Advice For “Regular” Guys

These are the caliber of guys who are popping up on “traditional league” waiver wires, but you'll also want to consider for guillotine usage.  They're generally cheap and could provide short-term help.

This list is getting shorter each week because our rosters are getting so powerful, it’s hard for any free agent to replace players you already have in place.

LAR QB Matthew Stafford

Oddly, Stafford is only rostered in 16% of guillotine leagues, despite showing massive upside in several recent games including last Sunday’s four-score effort. That said, his schedule isn’t great. He’s startable this week against New England, but he’s got some thorny games remaining, including the Eagles, Bills, 49ers, and Jets.

Charch's recommended bid price: $1

DEN QB Bo Nix

As a Vikings fan, I feel physical pain while offering complimentary words for Sean Payton, but I need to acknowledge Bo Nix’s extraordinary development, for which Payton gets much credit. Nix has vaulted into every-week starter status, with as little downside as any quarterback. My joints ache just typing that.

Since Week 5, Nix has finished no lower than QB16, while finishing as a top-nine quarterback in half those games. PFF notes that Nix only has one turnover-worthy play in his last eight games. Despite all that, he’s available in 58% of guillotine leagues. The hard part of the Broncos’ schedule is in the rear-view mirror with no “stoppers” left outside of Denver’s Week 14 bye.

Charch's recommended bid price: $10

DEN RB Javonte Williams

Last week, Williams was dropped in two-thirds of guillotine leagues, and rightfully so. He’d underperformed for weeks and Audric Estime got most of the work. Then, last Sunday, Sean Payton reversed course and went back to Williams (until the game was a blowout).

So, it looks like Williams has regained the starting job, and he's startable this week against the Raiders and the following week against the Browns. He’s on bye after that, in Week 14.

Charch's recommended bid price: $10

LAC WR Quentin Johnston

Of the two starting Los Angeles receivers, I prefer Ladd McConkey, but he’s rostered in 70% of leagues, while Johnston is only rostered in 35%. Johnston is making obvious, tangible strides and he's being rewarded with more playing time and targets. Last week's 36 routes and eight targets were season highs.

He's absolutely startable this week against the Ravens' bottom-ranked pass defense. And he's likely a starter the following week against Atlanta.

Charch's recommended bid price: $1

NO TE Taysom Hill 

Improbably, Hill is starting to look like one of the safest starters at the most volatile position, tight end. I’ve mentioned Taysom Hill a few times in prior weeks, but coming off his three-score performance, he’s turned into a priority waiver claim for anyone looking for tight end help.

Hill is, in effect, the Saints QB2, RB2, WR2, and TE2. Last week he rushed seven times, threw two passes, and caught eight of ten passes his way. In years past, Hill was prone to epic dud games. But the Saints’ many injuries have kept him on the field for at least 23 snaps in four straight games.

Charch's recommended bid price: $15