Welcome to Week 13, Guillotine Leaguers! 

I’m here every Tuesday offering waiver wire guidance to help you strategize your bidding.

This document is in four sections: 

Today, I'm here to help answer the most pressing question you're harboring: Should you push in all your chips this week?

Critical to understanding this question is this gameplay nuance: 

Important note for those playing at GuillotineLeagues.com! Beginning with the players chopped in Week 14's action, chopped players are unavailable for the rest of the year. All other free agents remain available for bidding. So, you’ve only got two more weeks of bidding on the most coveted free agents. You can find more details about this rule here.

With only two more weeks left, you'll need to spend most (not all) of your FAAB either this week or next. Your decision lies with three key variables: 

  1. Who's available? As I've been discussing for several weeks, you only want to spend meaningful FAAB on "end-game" players. These are players who you're ready to start every week for the rest of the year, including in your flex positions.
     
  2. How many end-game players do you still need? Obviously, the fewer end-game players you still need to acquire, the more you can spend on each player. If you only need one more player, by all means, push in all your chips for a superstar. If you still need three or four end-game players, you're going to have to divvy up your FAAB, or simply accept that you're going to have to have some sub-optimal players.
     
  3. What's your FAAB position compared to other teams? If you're near the front of the FAAB pack, this is the moment you've been waiting for. Go get your guys. You'll be tempted to hold out for next week, but with only one week of unrestricted bidding left, next week is going to be a bidding frenzy. I recommend getting ahead of it. Also, with only six (at most) teams left, your odds of getting chopped are becoming very real. If you're closer to the bottom of the FAAB pack, I'd wait a week and let other teams spend their way down to your level (or, hopefully, lower). 

Don't spend every last dollar of your FAAB. After Week 14, you can still bid on (non-chopped) free agents, and some of those guys can be valuable. For example, if God forbid, Christian McCaffrey goes down, having a few dollars to bid on Jordan Mason could earn you a championship. Or, if both your quarterbacks get hurt, you'll want a few dollars to pivot to someone else.

While we're chatting, be sure to listen to the Chop Podcast, for greater detail and conversation about the week's waiver wire decisions.

And guillotine league players, you can get 20% off the amazing tool set at FantasyLife, including my guillotine-specific rankings, by using the promo code "CHOP20".

Self Evaluation

Over the course of this story, you'll see a lot of specific bidding advice. Those values need to be weighed against the strength of your roster and your likelihood of survival. You can’t bid correctly if you don’t establish your level of desperation—hopefully very little.

If you have a short-term roster problem due to bye weeks or injury, your goal should be to solve the problem with a cheap replacement player to cover your roster for a few weeks.

If your roster has a long-term problem, you’ll need to be more aggressive to land a good replacement player who can sustain you for many weeks.

Broad Bidding Strategies

We're at a stage where you'll want to spend a healthy chunk of your remaining FAAB. As mentioned above, there are only two weeks left for unrestricted spending. If you've got holes to fill, you can certainly spend now.

So, how much should you spend? Here’s a broad rule of thumb:

  • Elite players: These are guys who’ll be on your roster for the rest of the year. This category of player would be first and second-round picks if drafting today. Think, Saquon Barkley, CeeDee Lamb, or Derrick Henry. Max your bidding on elite players at $100-$150. And only spend that much if most of the rest of your roster are end-game players.
     
  • Middle-tier players: These guys are probable starters, but only for another few weeks. $5-$10.
     
  • Lower-tier players: These are short-term helpers or depth guys for your bench. $1-$5.

The 10 Most Chopped Players From Week 12

For the first time this season, have prices radically dropped. People simply don't have as much available FAAB. Be sure to monitor the other teams' cash situation so you know how much buying power is out there. If everyone else is poor, don't overpay!

10. PIT WR George Pickens (18.9% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 7.7/10
  • Upcoming schedule: @CIN, CLE, @PHI
  • Last week's median price: $30
  • End-game player: MAYBE 
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $10

Until last week's wintery dud, Pickens had been highly reliable under Russell Wilson, averaging six catches, 91 yards, and half a touchdown. He likely returns to that level of production for the next two weeks with soft matchups against Cincinnati and Cleveland. 

9. TB TE Cade Otton (19.4% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 8.0/10
  • Upcoming schedule: CAR, LV, @LAC
  • Last week's median price: $3
  • End-game player: YES 
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $5

Organizationally, the Giants do only one thing well: stop tight ends. Another possible contributor to Otton's dud game is the return of Mike Evans, which deprioritized Otton. He saw his lowest utilization score since Week 2. Otton could rebound nicely though. The Panthers and Raiders are bottom-six fantasy defenses against tight ends.

8. NE RB Rhamondre Stevenson (20% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 7.4/10
  • Upcoming schedule: IND, BYE, @ARI
  • Last week's median price: $3
  • End-game player: NO
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $3

If you didn't watch the Patriots game (and I don't blame you), you missed Rhamondre Stevenson running hard … and going nowhere. To my eyes, the ragged Patriots offensive line posted its worst game of the season, and that's saying something. If you'd play Stevenson this week in a positive matchup with Indy, sure, throw a couple of bucks on him. But his Week 14 bye and inconsistent offense means Stevenson may only be playable for one more game.

7. SF RB Christian McCaffrey (20.1% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 8.8/10
  • Upcoming schedule: @BUF, CHI, LAR
  • Last week's median price: $157
  • End-game player: YES 
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $60

Jordan Mason ran for 5.2 yards per carry, but in the same Niners offense, Christian McCaffrey is only netting 3.5 YPC. CMC hasn't scored yet, which is also troubling. San Francisco's offensive line ranks 26th in Run Block Win Rate. And with star tackle Trent Williams ailing, it might not get better soon. Fortunately, McCaffrey is pulling in some passes, which has helped, but not enough to overcome his meager rushing numbers. His next two games, Buffalo and Chicago, are both against teams that are easier to run upon than pass. 

6. HOU RB Joe Mixon (21% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 7.1/10
  • Upcoming schedule: @JAC, BYE, MIA
  • Last week's median price: $130
  • End-game player: YES 
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $150

Troublingly, twice in the last two weeks, Mixon has run for 1.8 YPC for less. The Houston offensive line shoulders most of the blame, offering very little running room for Mixon. Fortunately, he remains one of the league's few true workhorse runners, and I absolutely consider him an end-game player. The only fly in the ointment is his Week 14 bye.

I recommend putting down a healthy bid for Mixon and also picking up a free agent with an easy Week 14 matchup (as one example, Tony Pollard faces the Jaguars next week, and he's rostered in only 56% of leagues).

5. PHI QB Jalen Hurts (21.3% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: NA
  • Upcoming schedule: @BAL, CAR, PIT
  • Last week's median price: $41
  • End-game player: YES 
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $40

Hurts has been incredibly safe and I have no hesitation about recommending Hurts if he represents a meaningful upgrade from your current quarterback. Even last week, his biggest box score dud of the season, he finished as QB16—roughly middle of the pack.

Every game has the upside of multiple rushing and passing touchdowns. And he almost never gives you a dud. The Eagles' schedule is favorable for the rest of the year, and especially the next two weeks.

4. LV TE Brock Bowers (21.4% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 8.9/10
  • Upcoming schedule: @KC, @TB, ATL
  • Last week's median price: $81
  • End-game player: YES 
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $100

If you've been languishing with inconsistent tight end play, it's time to permanently solve the problem by acquiring one of the safest tight ends. Prior to last week, Bowers had finished as TE6 or better in five of six games. Bowers is on pace to destroy the rookie TE reception record. His next two opponents, Kansas City and Tampa, are bottom-four in fantasy points allowed to tight ends.

3. IND RB Jonathan Taylor (22.1% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 7.9/10
  • Upcoming schedule: @NE, BYE, @DEN
  • Last week's median price: $27
  • End-game player: NO 
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $10

Taylor hasn't scored in a month and he's topped 57 rushing yards in just one of his last four games. Indy's change at quarterback did nothing to help Taylor's flagging output, with 57- and 35-yard rushing games under Anthony Richardson. He should experience a bounceback this week against New England's porous run defense. But after that, he's got a bye and then faces consecutive difficult defenses, Denver and Tennessee.

2. WAS RB Brian Robinson (22.7% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 5.9/10
  • Upcoming schedule: TEN, BYE, @NO
  • Last week's median price: $95
  • End-game player: NO 
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $1

As of this writing, it's unclear if Brian Robinson will be able to play through the ankle (and previous hamstring) injury that knocked him out of last week's game. Resting him this week against Tennessee would give Robinson two weeks of rest due to Washington's Week 14 bye. But even if he plays on Sunday, can you risk reinjury, particularly against a brutally tough run defense in Tennessee? In the past month, the Titans have completely shut down Joe Mixon, Aaron Jones, J.K. Dobbins, and Rhamondre Stevenson. If you add Robinson now, it's to start him in Week 15 (@NO) and Week 17 (Atl). Reminder, Robinson doesn't catch, which makes him pretty touchdown-dependent for fantasy points.

1. MIN WR Justin Jefferson (27% chop rate) <--season high!

  • Utilization Score: 8.4/10
  • Upcoming schedule: ARI, ATL, CHI
  • Last week's median price: $175
  • End-game player: YES 
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $150

Justin Jefferson hasn't scored in five weeks as defenses have given him bracket coverage on almost every play. But that coverage could change as Sam Darnold is delivering wins through Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson.

Needless to say, Jefferson is capable of huge games and remains an elite "end game" option. The Vikings just finished three straight road games and now play three at home. Minnesota's remaining schedule is mostly neutral, with no stoppers remaining.

Waiver Advice For “Regular” Guys

These are the caliber of guys who are popping up on “traditional league” waiver wires, but you'll also want to consider them for guillotine use. They're generally cheap and could provide short-term help.

This list is getting shorter each week because our rosters are getting so powerful, it’s hard for any free agent to replace the (likely very good) players you already have in place.

MIA QB Tua Tagovailoa

I'm surprised to see Tua only rostered in 19% of Guillotine Leagues. I understand the concern that any play could be his last, but the Miami offense is starting to cook, with consecutive 34-point outings. And Tua's thrown seven touchdowns in those two games. Miami's schedule is a mixed bag, but I see three opportunities to start him: at Green Bay this week, at Houston in Week 15, and at Cleveland in the championship. Since his return in Week 8, Tua leads the NFL in completion percentage.

Charch's recommended bid price: $5

WAS RB Jeremy McNichols

There's a very real chance that Jeremy McNichols is the starting back against Tennessee on Sunday. Brian Robinson suffered an ankle injury early in last week's game and then aggravated it later in the game before leaving for good. Austin Ekeler suffered his second concussion of the season and it's likely that the team will be careful with his recovery.

The Titans run defense is very good, but if you're desperate for a starter, McNichols is likely to get the majority of Washington's workload.

Charch's recommended bid price: $1, if you'd start him this week.

LAC RB Gus Edwards
It looks like J.K. Dobbins is going to miss time with the knee injury he sustained on Monday night. A sad turn of events for a guy who has bounced back from severe ACL and Achilles injuries. Gus Edwards is the next man up. He scored on Monday night, and had been trending toward more playing time even before Dobbins' injury.

Assuming Dobbins misses time, Edwards is the likely lead back, with rookie Kimani Vidal finally getting some minutes. To my eyes, Gus hasn't looked good. He's averaging just 3.3 YPC. Among 53 runners with his 63 carries, Gus ranks 51st in yards per carry and 53rd in broken tackle rate.

Charch's recommended bid price: $1

BUF WR Keon Coleman

Coleman has fallen out of memory due to his recent wrist injury and the Bills' subsequent bye. But Coleman should be healthy at this point and the schedule isn't as daunting as it once looked—even the Jets aren't the stopper they used to be. In Coleman's two games before getting hurt in Week 9, he posted 4-125-0 and 5-70-1, with a target rate of 24% and 25%. To this point, Amari Cooper hasn't been a factor in the Bills offense, although that could change with his further acclimation to the Buffalo system.

Charch's recommended bid price: $1

MIA TE Jonnu Smith

Despite being TE5 since Week 5, incredibly, Jonnu Smith is rostered in only 54% of leagues. People are still rostering (and starting) Sam LaPorta over Smith, who has proven to be much more reliable. Since Week 5, Smith's average game is 5.5 catches, 67 yards, and half a touchdown. That's tight end fantasy gold! Miami's schedule is a mixed bag, with a favorable game this week against Green Bay, and then three challenging matchups with the Jets, Texans, and Niners.

Charch's recommended bid price: $10

NO TE Taysom Hill

Because of the Saints' Week 12 bye, Hill is available in 64% of guillotine leagues. But he's been an improbably safe option at a volatile position. As I mentioned last week, Hill is, in effect, the Saints QB2, RB2, WR2, and TE2. In years past, Hill was prone to epic dud games. But the Saints’ many injuries have kept him on the field for at least 23 snaps in four straight games.

Charch's recommended bid price: $15