Welcome to Week 14, Guillotine Leaguers!
This is my final waiver wire advice article because this is the last week for unrestricted free agent bidding.
Before I go any further, please accept my heartfelt thanks for reading these waiver articles and spending your season playing at GuillotineLeagues.com. I hope you've had a blast playing the most exciting format of fantasy football.
Beginning with the players chopped in Week 14's action, chopped players are unavailable for the rest of the year. All other free agents remain available for bidding.
So, you’ve only got this week to acquire the most coveted free agents. You can find more details about this rule, including the gameplay rationale for the rule here.
In some ways, this is the simplest week of the year. You're going to spend most (not quite all!) of your FAAB in the next waiver run.
As you’re strategizing your bids, your overwhelming priority is to solidify your starting roster with “end-game” players. These are high-end players who you’ll start every week, regardless of opponent.
Obviously, if you’re only missing one end-game plaGeorge Kittle
yer from your roster, you can pour all your FAAB toward that guy. If you need multiple players, you’ll have to split up your FAAB, which complicates your decision making.
If you’re unclear about how good your roster needs to be, here’s a crowdsourced answer featuring a bunch of examples. Use these rosters to help determine how many players you need to add.
As for your backups, you want to aim for two types of players: guys with high upside and high-value handcuffs to your starters.
Remember back in September, when you only needed 75 points to survive? For the rest of the year, you’re going to need closer to 130 points per week. That’s 16 points per player. Mid-tier guys, even my beloved Khalil Shakir, don’t have a place on your team at this late stage.
Even though you can always make $0 bids on players, leave yourself about $10 of FAAB for two reasons:
- After Week 14, you can still bid on (non-chopped) free agents, and some of those guys can help you survive. For example, if Derrick Henry goes down, having a few dollars to bid on Justice Hill would be very impactful. See also, CMC and Isaac Guerendo, right now. (More on Guerendo at the bottom of this story)
- People are going to mismanage their dropped players. Rosters are absolutely stacked and someone is going to drop a player they shouldn't drop. You'll want to have a few dollars to pick up that guy.
Scott Anderson on X asks, "Down the stretch, should I start the same player in all three of my guillotine leagues?" Scott might just be bragging about his three still-alive teams, but it’s a valid question. Here’s a broad answer: When your guillotine team gets chopped, it hurts. Now, multiply that pain by 300% when that guy posts a dud game. No thanks.
More specifically, it depends on the delta between that guy and his replacement. I’d start Bijan Robinson in three leagues before I’d play Travis Etienne. But if it came down to Bijan Robinson for James Conner, I’d diversify.
While we're chatting, be sure to listen to the Chop Podcast, for greater detail and conversation about the week's waiver wire decisions.
And guillotine league players, you can get 20% off the amazing tool set at FantasyLife, including my guillotine-specific rankings, by using the promo code "CHOP20".
The 10 Most Chopped Players From Week 13
Since this is the final week for unrestricted bidding, I've made a change to the data below. For each player, you'll get advice about whether he's an "All In" player, or not. As the name suggests, these are players who have reached a performance threshold requisite of receiving a final big FAAB allocation.
10. NYJ WR Garrett Wilson (21.4% chop rate)
- Utilization Score: 8.3/10
- Upcoming schedule: @MIA, @JAC, LAR
- Last week's median price: $3
- All-in player: No
Garrett Wilson is a great player, but the overall state of the Jets offense is troubling. Aaron Rodgers can't feed more than one receiver and increasingly that receiver is Davante Adams. Over the past three Jets games, Wilson has slumped to WR43 due to middling numbers and a timeshare with Davante Adams that's starting to tilt against him.
9. DET WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (21.9% chop rate)
- Utilization Score: 8.0/10
- Upcoming schedule: GB, BUF, @CHI
- Last week's median price: $76
- All-in player: YES
I don't need many words for this one. St. Brown remains one of my most coveted players and he's certainly worthy of your remaining FAAB. He's the 10th-highest-graded wideout in utilization and he's the 3rd-highest-scoring fantasy wide receiver. This is why you saved your FAAB.
8. PHI WR A.J. Brown (23% chop rate)
- Utilization Score: 7.8/10
- Upcoming schedule: CAR, PIT, @WAS
- Last week's median price: $51
- All-in player: YES
With just one touchdown in the past six games, it's been a disappointing second half of the season for A.J. Brown. His slump has overlapped with DeVonta Smith's injury. As a learning moment, always beware of claims that one receiver's injury is likely to boost a teammate's productivity.
Even though it hasn't happened lately, Brown can dominate games and Smith's probable return this week will provide more favorable coverage for Brown. His schedule looks positive at first glance, but Carolina and Washington are two of the most improved secondaries in the league. Still, I consider Brown an end-game player.
7. DET RB Jahmyr Gibbs (24.7% chop rate)
- Utilization Score: 7.1/10
- Upcoming schedule: GB, BUF, @CHI
- Last week's median price: $88
- All-in player: YES
Unquestionably, Gibbs is an "all-in" player, finishing as a top-12 runner seven different times this year. The only caution is that David Montgomery needs to be fed as well, and if Gibbs doesn't create one of his signature dazzling plays, he could provide a dud. Still, Gibbs has proven himself to be very safe and I'm going to war with him on several of my remaining guillotine leagues. Each of Detroit's next three opponents are teams that are easier to run upon than pass.
6. CAR RB Chuba Hubbard (24.9% chop rate)
- Utilization Score: 8.1/10
- Upcoming schedule: @PHI, DAL, ARI
- Last week's median price: $3
- All-in player: No
Hubbard is coming off a rare dud game, punctuated by his devastating overtime fumble that cost the Panthers a likely win. I expect Dave Canales to reassure Hubbard with plenty of work this week, but don't overlook several negatives before you bid on him.
His remaining schedule is very tough, including a brutal matchup this week against the Eagles. And Arizona has turned into a very difficult run defense, particularly for backs who don't catch, like Hubbard. Lastly, Jonathon Brooks saw a significant uptick in playing time last week. While I believe Hubbard will finish the season as the starter, Brooks will continue chiseling into his workload.
5. SEA RB Kenneth Walker (25.8% chop rate)
- Utilization Score: 8.4/10
- Upcoming schedule: @ARI, GB, MIN
- Last week's median price: $15
- All-in player: YES
I agonized over whether Kenneth Walker is an "all-in" player, but I ultimately landed on yes. He's a workhorse, who safely gets two-thirds of Seattle's playing time. He's dipped below 16 touches just once since Week 5. He's really good, ranking No. 1 in broken tackle rate (40%--next closest is 29%!). But his schedule is troubling. Arizona has become a tricky spot, allowing only one runner to score a rushing touchdown since way back in Week 4. And Minnesota is the league's best run defense.
4. NYJ RB Breece Hall (26.8% chop rate)
- Utilization Score: 8.7/10
- Upcoming schedule: @MIA, @JAC, LAR
- Last week's median price: $15
- All-in player: No
I could cut and paste most of what I said about Garrett Wilson here. Hall's a very good player in an offense that can't reliably find ways to get big performances from him. Hall has scored in just one of his last five games, and just two of the past nine games. He's a great receiver, but often he's vastly underused in the receiving game, including last week when he was targeted one time. He's got the talent to be an end-game player, but too few consistent opportunities.
3. DAL WR CeeDee Lamb (29.5% chop rate)
- Utilization Score: 8.1/10
- Upcoming schedule: CIN, @CAR, TB
- Last week's median price: $40
- All-in player: No
Even though Cooper Rush has outperformed my expectations, I can't get myself to put my guillotine season in his hands for the rest of the year. Yes, the schedule is incredibly soft—perhaps the easiest in the league. And, yes, Lamb has been a target magnet in Rush games. But Rush has also evaporated all the explosiveness from Lamb's game. He hasn't scored since Dak Prescott got injured and his aDOT has dropped by a third. Dwain McFarland has astutely comped Lamb to Wan'Dale Robinson.
2. SF TE George Kittle (33.4% chop rate)
- Utilization Score: 9.0/10
- Upcoming schedule: CHI, LAR, @MIA
- Last week's median price: $20
- All-in player: YES
Sunday night's snow game put Kittle on a disastrous box score, just one catch for seven yards. But that's a major anomaly for the highest-scoring tight end in fantasy football. If you've been languishing at the tight end position, this is the moment to push all your chips in.
1. LAR WR Cooper Kupp (33.4% chop rate)
- Utilization Score: 8.3/10
- Upcoming schedule: BUF, @SF, @NYJ
- Last week's median price: $50
- All-in player: YES
Last week, Kupp fell victim to the same thing that happens to most teams' No. 2 receivers occasionally: A deprioritization in the passing game. And Matthew Stafford simply didn't pass much, just 12 completions on 24 attempts. Last Sunday's game was a freakish outlier, with season-lows in receptions and yards for Kupp.
His remaining schedule is tricky, but I'll note that Buffalo and San Francisco, two solid secondaries, have struggled against good slot receivers.
Week 14 Waiver Advice For “Regular” Guys
These are the caliber of guys who are popping up on “traditional league” waiver wires, but you'll also want to consider them for guillotine use. They're generally cheap and could provide short-term help.
This list is getting shorter each week because our rosters are getting so powerful that it's hard for any free agent to replace the superstar players you already have in place.
SF RB Isaac Guerendo
As the last man standing in the 49ers backfield Isaac Guerendo represents a fascinating opportunity for guillotine players. In the two games in which Jordan Mason's gotten hurt and he's gotten more than five carries, Guerendo's smashed, averaging 10 and 6 yards per carry. He's really fast, posting a 4.33 40, and he's capable of breakaway runs. Hopefully left tackle Trent Williams will be able to return from his ankle injury and family bereavement. The Niners schedule is mostly neutral, with upcoming games against the Bears, Rams, and Dolphins. They have a difficult matchup in Week 17 with Detroit.
Charch's recommended bid: $25
CAR WR Adam Thielen
If you think Adam Thielen is cooked, you're not watching the Panthers—a defensible decision on paper, but they've been a blast to watch for a month. Last Sunday alone, Adam Thielen made two of the ten best catches of the season. Bryce Young is playing, by far, the best ball of his career and it's obvious that Dave Canales will keep putting Thielen on the field to provide the veteran leadership he's otherwise missing at the position.
Charch's recommended bid: $1
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