Welcome to Week 5, guillotine leaguers!  

I’m here every Tuesday offering waiver wire guidance to help you strategize your FAAB bidding.

This article is broken into four sections: 

Also, be sure to listen to the Chop Podcast, for greater detail and conversation about the week's waiver wire decisions.  Also, FantasyLife+ subscribers, you get my exclusive weekly guillotine-specific player rankings. Use promo code CHOP20 for 20% off.

Self Evaluation

The NFL's bye weeks are here, creating a new inflection point of the guillotine league season. Take a moment to establish your positioning in the league. How has your team finished every week? Mostly near the top? Mostly near the bottom?

It's always important to gauge your degree of desperation, because it drives your bidding prices. Obviously, the more trouble you're in, the more you'll need to spend to solve it.

First, let's attack the bye week with some self-scouting. Set your Week 5 lineup, minus your bye week players, obviously. How does it look? Are you a possible chop candidate? Or a probable chop candidate?

Then, do some scouting at the other teams in the league. The four teams on bye (DET, PHI, LAC, TEN) are good offenses. So other guillotine teams are going to be suffering too. Keep in mind that you're not uniquely desperate this week.

For those with Week 5 bye-week problems, your goal is to solve it as cheaply as possible. Can you pick up Trey Sermon as a two-week solution for $15 rather than bidding $250 on James Cook? The worst solution is to drop hundreds of FAAB dollars on players you don't absolutely need. 

Remember, every dollar you save in October is worth 2x in November and 3x in December.

At the bottom of this document, you'll see a plethora of cheap free agents available in most guillotine leagues.

Broad Bidding Strategies

So, how much should you spend? Here’s a broad rule of thumb:

  • Elite players: These are guys who’ll be on your roster for the rest of the year. This category of player would be first and second-round picks if drafting today. Think, Justin Jefferson, Saquon Barkley, CeeDee Lamb, or Nico Collins. Max your bidding on elite players at $150-$200. No more, unless you’re truly desperate. You probably won't get these guys, and that's okay at this stage of the season.
     
  • Middle-tier players: These guys are probable starters every week, but will probably get replaced by November for better talent. $25-$50. Be careful here. Throwing down $50 twice a week will drain your funds in short order.
     
  • Lower-tier players: These are short-term helpers or depth guys for your bench. $1-$10. 

The 10 Most Chopped Players in Week 4

Note: Rashee Rice was the most chopped player at a whopping 19% rate.

10. ARI QB Kyler Murray (12.1% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: NA
  • Upcoming schedule: @SF, @GB, LAC
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $40

Despite facing the league's worst pass defense, Murray flopped badly against Washington last week. In a blowout loss, even the game script couldn't save Murray. It's much tougher matchups on the horizon, with road games against good defenses in San Francisco and Green Bay. He's only averaging four designed rushes per game which is a worry, but he's topped 45 rushing yards in three of four games.

9. CHI WR Rome Odunze (12.1% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 5.4/10
  • Upcoming schedule: CAR, JAC, BYE
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $1

Coming off a dud game despite a positive matchup against a battered Rams defense, I'm hesitant to start Odunze again, even against Carolina this week. And then he's got a bye week looming. I need to see more consistency from Caleb Williams before I trust him in this format.

8. NYG RB Devin Singletary (13.2% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 7.1/10
  • Upcoming schedule: @SEA, CIN, PHI
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $50

Last Thursday, Singletary bombed against a very bad Dallas run defense, which raises some concern about him going forward.  Seattle's run defense has yielded big games to the Patriots and Lions runners on the road, like this game. Despite his troubles against the Cowboys, Singletary still ranks 3rd in avoided tackle rate. 

7. PHI WR DeVonta Smith (13.3% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 9/10
  • Upcoming schedule: BYE, CLE, @NYG
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $40

There's plenty of danger here, as the status of Smith's concussion is a total unknown. Combine his concussion with Philly's bye this week, and I'm keeping my bidding pretty modest, despite his talent.

6. ATL TE Kyle Pitts (13.3% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 6.1/10
  • Upcoming schedule: TB, @CAR, SEA
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $0

In the history of the guillotine format, I don't think any player has ended more seasons than Kyle Pitts.  If you want to cement your doubts about Pitts, watch this compilation of his lazy, slow routes.

5. BUF RB James Cook (13.4% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 6.9/10
  • Upcoming schedule: @HOU, @NYJ, TEN
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $120

James Cook is a good player coming off a rough game against a fantastic Baltimore run defense. Before last Sunday, Cook had been a reliable contributor, chipping in four touchdowns in three games. All three of his upcoming games are against defenses that rank in the bottom half in fantasy points allowed to running backs. 

4. MIA RB De'Von Achane (13.5% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 8.6/10
  • Upcoming schedule: @NE, BYE, @IND
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $30

Thanks to injuries to Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson, De'Von Achane has seen huge workloads. But it hasn't amounted to many fantasy points because of the woeful quarterbacking Miami is experiencing, post-Tua. His struggles have come despite the fact that Achane is only seeing 8 men in the box at a 9% rate, the fifth-lowest rate. Note his looming bye next week.

3. BAL WR Zay Flowers (14.6% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 6.1/10
  • Upcoming schedule: @CIN, WAS, @TB
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $25

Last Sunday night, Flowers got held in check by two great cornerbacks, Christian Benford and Rasul Douglas. And Derrick Henry's domination in consecutive games has meant that Jackson has only thrown 15 and 18 passes in the last two games. That could be a recurring theme in games throughout this year.

2. BUF QB Josh Allen (17.6% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: NA
  • Upcoming schedule: @HOU, @NYJ, TEN
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $75

Shockingly, Allen has appeared on this list twice in three weeks. He's now had two games with fewer fantasy points than ANY game last year. Normally, Allen's rushing provides a very safe floor, but he's averaging just 27 rushing yards and has scored a rushing touchdown in just one game. Allen is likely suffering from a transition from Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis to Keon Coleman and Curtis Samuel.  Allen has a tricky schedule, in the middle of three consecutive road games, including a third one against a terrific Jets secondary.

1. NYJ RB Breece Hall (18.6% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 9.0/10
  • Upcoming schedule: @MIN, BUF, @PIT
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $110

Hall is going to be a coveted pickup this week, but he faces a London game with a brutal matchup against the Vikings. Then he'll endure international travel back home, and a game against Buffalo (albeit on Monday night, with an extra day of rest). Even with Braelon Allen looking good, Hall is getting a lot of workload making him safe in this format. 

Waiver Advice For “Regular” Guys

These are the caliber of guys who are popping up on “traditional league” waiver wires, but you'll also want to consider for guillotine usage.  They're generally cheap and could provide short-term help.

CAR QB Andy Dalton - $1

  • Despite his eye-popping play, Dalton remains available in 60% of leagues. My hesitation about dropping more money on Dalton is his tricky matchup in Chicago this week. The Bears rank No. 1 in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks. Opposing passers are averaging just 195 passing yards and no opposing passer has topped one touchdown. After Chicago, the Panthers have a neutral matchup with Atlanta, and then a very favorable game against Washington.

IND RB Trey Sermon - $15

  • Jonathan Taylor is expected to miss two (or so) games with his high ankle sprain, leaving Trey Sermon as Indy's expected workhorse back. Sermon isn't a special talent, but he'll likely get 15+ touches against a middle-of-the-pack Jaguars run defense this week. Then he'll face a tougher test against a surging Tennessee defense.

KC RB Kareem Hunt - $15

  • Hunt was a pleasant surprise with 14 carries and an increasing role throughout last week's game. He had seven carries in the fourth quarter and finished with 4.9 yards per carry. But the range of possible outcomes for Hunt is incredibly broad. Maybe he's the lead back for the rest of the year. But, that seems unlikely. Clyde Edwards-Helaire is eligible to return from IR this week. Samaje Perine remains a nuisance, and he got a goal-line score last week over Hunt. Carson Steele might be in the doghouse for fumbling. Or not.  Lots of moving parts here.

ATL RB Tyler Allgeier - $5

  • Maybe Arthur Smith knew what he was doing after all.  Allgeier has looked very good and we're seeing a deserved uptick in Allgeier's utilization. Among players with Allgeier's 27 rushes, Allgeier ranks 3rd in yards per carry, at 6.1. Allgeier ranks 3rd in yards after contact. He ranks 14th in missed tackle rate.  All of those rankings are higher than Bijan Robinson.

GB WR Dontayvion Wicks - $30

  • Christian Watson got knocked out early in last Sunday's game, and Dontayvion Wicks appears to be the clear beneficiary.  In Weeks 1-3, Wicks averaged 13 routes per game. Last week, he ran 45 routes and was targeted in the end zone four times! Wicks also leads all Packers receivers with a healthy downfield ADOT of 14.8. Jordan Love sparked to life in the second half of last week's game and should have little trouble abusing a banged-up Rams secondary this week.

CAR WR Xavier Legette - $30

  • With Adam Thielen out last week, Xavier Legette saw career highs in snaps, routes, targets, catches … pretty much everything, really.  The big-bodied athlete scored his first touchdown last week and may not relinquish the playing time even after Thielen comes off IR. And, as you already know, Andy Dalton makes this offense capable of sustained fantasy success.

IND WR Josh Downs - $5

  • I'd only bid on Josh Downs if Joe Flacco is going to continue to be the starter. Flacco looks much better equipped to get the ball to all of his receivers, including Downs, who saw nine targets on Sunday—a rate he'd never seen in an Anthony Richardson start. 

LAR WR Jordan Whittington - $5

  • Jordan Whittington saw a huge spike in usage last week, and he's a plausible flex-level starter this week against the Packers. But, you probably don't want to spend much for Whittington because next week the Rams go on bye and then Cooper Kupp's return timetable starts to kick in.

LV WR Tre Tucker - $1

  • With Davante Adams out, Tucker exploded onto the scene last week. He almost certainly will avoid a brutal matchup with Denver cornerback Patrick Surtain this week. Surtain is shutting down every receiver he faces, and if Adams returns, he'd get Surtain. And even if Adams misses another game, Surtain would likely be on Jakobi Meyers.

GB TE Tucker Kraft – $20

  • Kraft has turned into the starter, leaving Luke Musgrave behind. Last week, he got 48 routes; Musgrave had just 16. He was targeted seven times. The Packers have a deep pool of receiving options, but Christian Watson's sprained ankle opens up a few extra targets.