Welcome to Week 6, guillotine leaguers!  

I’m here every Tuesday offering waiver wire guidance to help you strategize your bidding. 

More so than in previous weeks, we've got some huge names on the waiver wire, making today's waiver wire decisions incredibly important to your future success. As you'll see below, this week I'm recommending my biggest cash outlay for any player this year.

As you know, Minnesota, Kansas City, Miami, and the Los Angeles Rams are on bye this week. Be aware of how that affects your starting lineup and also your bids for those players. 

On any bye week in which you aren't short any starters, you have the likelihood of staying alive—and that provides you with an opportunity to hoard cash.

This document is in four sections: 

Also, be sure to listen to the Chop Podcast, for greater detail and conversation about the week's waiver wire decision.

Self Evaluation

Over the course of this piece, you'll see a lot of specific bidding advice. Those values need to be weighed against the strength of your roster and your likelihood of survival. You can’t bid correctly if you don’t establish your level of desperation—hopefully very little.

If you have a short-term roster problem due to bye weeks or injury, your goal should be to solve the problem with a cheap replacement player to cover your roster for a few weeks.

If your roster has a long-term problem, you’ll need to be more aggressive to land a good replacement player who can sustain you for months.

If your roster is strong enough that you're likely to survive this week, your bids should be low, as you save money for future weeks.

Broad Bidding Strategies

I repeat this every week: There’s no single way to win a guillotine league. But the clearest path to a guillotine league championship is to survive until mid-season and have a lot of FAAB left. In short, cherish every dollar. Unless you're desperate, your primary goal is to conserve cash.

So, how much should you spend? Here’s a broad rule of thumb:

  • Elite players: These are guys who’ll be on your roster for the rest of the year. This category of player would be first and second-round picks if drafting today. Think, Justin Jefferson, Saquon Barkley, CeeDee Lamb, or Derrick Henry. Max your bidding on elite players at $175-$225. No more, unless you’re already truly desperate.
     
  • Middle-tier players: These guys are probable starters every week, but will probably get replaced by November for better talent. $20-$30. Be careful here. Throwing down $40 twice a week will drain your funds in short order.
     
  • Lower-tier players: These are short-term helpers or depth guys for your bench. $1-$5. 

The 10 Most Chopped Players in Week 5

10. SF RB Jordan Mason (11.8% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 8.1/10
  • Upcoming schedule: @SEA, KC, DAL, BYE
  • Last week's median price: $218
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $175

I'm a bit shocked that Mason made this list, considering his 98-yard performance.  Mason is a cautionary tale about runners who don't provide receiving help. Averaging just 1.5 receptions for 13 yards, those three fantasy points aren't helping provide a safe floor. Still, Mason has the second-highest rushing attempt percentage and he ranks 9th in running back utilization.

9. NYJ RB Breece Hall (12.2% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 8.5/10
  • Upcoming schedule: BUF, @PIT, @NE
  • Last week's median price: $251
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $60
     

However bad you think it's going for Breece Hall, it's probably worse. Among the 30 runners with at least 50 carries, Hall ranks 27th in rushing yards, 30th in yards per carry (just 3.0!), and 28th in avoided tackle rate. He's scored just one touchdown since the opener. Troublingly, he also hasn't topped 10 carries or 3 receptions in consecutive games. Fortunately, Braelon Allen hasn't started chipping away at Hall's usage …yet.

8. BUF TE Dalton Kincaid (12.6% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 6.1/10
  • Upcoming schedule: @NYJ, TEN, @SEA
  • Last week's median price: $40
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $30

Sooner or later, it'll come together for Kincaid, right? But how many guillotine teams are going to get chopped in the meantime? The box score won't show it, but Dalton Kincaid had two "near-misses" on big gains last week, including a sure touchdown on a long bomb that Josh Allen narrowly missed. Of note, the schedule is daunting. The Jets, Titans, and Seahawks haven't allowed any tight end touchdowns. And what's more the Titans and Jets rank No. 1 and No. 2 in fantasy points allowed to the position, respectively.

7. NYG WR Malik Nabers (12.8% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 9.7/10
  • Upcoming schedule: CIN, PHI, @PIT
  • Last week's median price: $230
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $210

Normally I'm the wet blanket, urging you to show discipline before opening your wallet, but Nabers is perfectly suited for the guillotine format. He's got the highest utilization score of any player at any position. He leads all starters in targets per route run and target percentage. Obviously, his concussion is an unknown, but that's the only reason he's available in your league, so you might want to break the bank and hope he returns quickly.

6. PIT WR George Pickens (13.2% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 7.0/10
  • Upcoming schedule: @LV, NYJ, NYG, BYE
  • Last week's median price: $28
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $10

I'd show caution here, but don't take my word for it. Cowboys defensive back Jourdan Lewis covered him for much of last week's game and he said, "George Pickens is weak" and "Pittsburgh needs a receiver."  Maybe Pickens will use those words as motivation, but until we see it, you've got to view Pickens as a very risky play in this format. Across the full season, Pickens is WR35, but even more troubling, he's finished as WR39 or worse in three of five games. Arthur Smith's Steelers rank 28th in pass attempts, and the lack of volume is contributing to Pickens' downside. Also, he looks unstartable in two weeks against the Jets.

5. MIN RB Aaron Jones (14.1% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 7.8/10
  • Upcoming schedule: BYE, DET, @LAR
  • Last week's median price: $186
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $60

There's plenty of danger here, starting with Minnesota's bye week and a daunting game against the Lions run defense in two weeks.  Detroit got lit up by Kenneth Walker, but all other runners averaged just 2.7 yards per carry. Aaron Jones bowed out early in last week's game with a hip injury and is being ominously described as "week-to-week."  If you're going to make an aggressive bid on Jones, I'd consider also placing a bid on Ty Chandler, to lock down the spot. 

4. ARI WR Marvin Harrison (14.7% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 7.1/10
  • Upcoming schedule: @GB, LAC, @MIA
  • Last week's median price: $175
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $90

This is the second time Marvin Harrison has landed on this list. His early-career volatility highlights the danger of drafting rookies, even very talented ones. Working in Harrison's favor, even in last week's dud game, he led the team's wideouts in routes, targets per routes run, and air yards. So, his usage remains high. Has it been a coincidence that his best games happened when Trey McBride was hurt? Hmmm …

3. MIA RB De'Von Achane (15% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 7.2/10
  • Upcoming schedule: BYE, @IND, ARI
  • Last week's median price: $100
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $20

There's many moving parts for you to dissect with De'Von Achane before bidding. The Miami offense looks completely broken without Tua Tagovailoa, and Achane's yards per carry have dropped from 7.8 last year to 3.3 this year. In games without Tua, he's finished as RB31, RB38, and RB51. We don't know the status of Achane's concussion, and with this week's bye, Miami may not offer an update until next week.

Of course, we also don't know when Tua Tagovailoa is coming back, but his window opens in two weeks. Compounding matters, Achane's heavy workload was coming with Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson hurt. What happens when they're all available? Lastly, Achane's injuries have only solidified the prevailing wisdom that he's injury-prone and cannot sustain heavy usage.

2. NO WR Chris Olave (16.1% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 6.1/10
  • Upcoming schedule: TB, DEN, @LAC
  • Last week's median price: $105
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $15

Is Rashid Shaheed the true alpha in the Saints passing game, not Chris Olave?  Shaheed leads the team in targets and targets per route run. With Shaheed dominating the deep balls, Chris Olave has turned into a poor man's Michael Thomas, ranking 36th in yards per reception. On Monday night, Olave got wrecked by elite cornerback Trent McDuffie, who only yielded 1 catch for four yards in his coverage of Olave.  And Olave has a looming game against Patrick Surtain. Derek Carr's oblique injury could cause him to miss time.

1. SF WR Deebo Samuel (16.9% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 6.2/10
  • Upcoming schedule: @SEA, KC, DAL
  • Last week's median price: $101
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $75

Deebo missed Week 3 with an injury and has now dropped consecutive clunkers on us. His average finish is WR42. We know Deebo is a great talent, but much of his fantasy value comes from his ability to turn short passes (or carries) into long gains. When those highlights don't happen, Deebo has substantial downside. 

Waiver Advice For “Regular” Guys

These are the caliber of guys who are popping up on “traditional league” waiver wires, but you'll also want to consider for guillotine usage.  They're generally cheap and could provide short-term help.

ATL QB Kirk Cousins ($20)

Cousins posted a massive game last Thursday, topping 500 yards against Tampa, a team he'll play again in three weeks. Facing Carolina on Sunday, he's an ideal fill-in for anyone with bye-week troubles this week. 

NYG QB Daniel Jones ($15)

We all wrote off Daniel Jones after his Week 1 beatdown by the Vikings, but he's bounced back nicely. He's scored 18+ fantasy points in three of the past four games, and a matchup against the sagging Cincinnati defense feels very exploitable.

The Bengals have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, including multiple touchdowns in four straight and at least 29 quarterback rushing yards in every game. What's more, four of his next five matchups look extremely promising. Cincinnati, Philadelphia, Washington, and Carolina currently hold these respective rankings in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks: 29th, 24th, 27th, and 26th.

MIN RB Ty Chander ($2)

Minnesota is on bye this week, but with Aaron Jones described as "week-to-week", it suggests that Jones could easily miss the Vikings' Week 7 game vs Detroit. If Jones can't go, Ty Chandler will move into the starting rotation.

Playing most of the game last Sunday, Chandler did little, averaging a paltry 2.1 yards per carry. Even if Chandler starts, he may suffer the same fate against a very good Lions run defense in Week 7. Only Kenneth Walker has topped 50 yards against the Lions, and before him, none had scored since the opener.

MIA RBs Jaylen Wright and Raheem Mostert ($5 each)

Miami's backfield is a convoluted situation, made worse by this week's bye.  The team may not report any new information about De'Von Achane's concussion until it is required to do so, next week. After Achane's injury on Sunday, head coach Mike McDaniel split the workload 19:13 in favor of Raheem Mostert. While a goal-line opportunity didn't present itself last week, Mostert's incredible 21 touchdowns last year make him the likely short-yardage back.

DAL WR Jalen Tolbert ($30)

With Brandin Cooks out, Jalen Tolbert moved into a command position in the Dallas offense, running 40 routes on Monday night, nearly as many as CeeDee Lamb.

With Brandin Cooks in injured reserve, Tolbert has a four-week window to prove that he should never relinquish the role, even when Cooks is healthy.  Even more impressive than Tolbert's game-winning touchdown was his ability to return to the field just one play after suffering testicular torsion, an injury that would leave me in a weepy, crumpled heap for several days.

IND WR Josh Downs ($10)

Finally healthy, we got a peek at Josh Downs' ceiling last week in a favorable matchup against a bad Jaguars secondary. His 12 targets and nine receptions paced the team, but they came from the arm of Joe Flacco. On Monday, head coach Shane Steichen reaffirmed his plan to re-insert Anthony Richardson as soon as possible. Hopefully, Richardson will improve his passing (dramatically, please), but to this point, Flacco is the much more reliable passer.

KC WR JuJu Smith-Schuster ($15)

On Monday night, JuJu walked into Rashee Rice's role, with a massive PPR performance. It probably wasn't a one-game aberration, because the team is running out of other options, with Hollywood Brown also out.

Smith-Schuster ran 22 routes from the slot on Monday, which is exactly what Rice had been running. The Chiefs are on bye this week.