Welcome to Week 7, guillotine leaguers!  

I’m here every Tuesday offering waiver wire guidance to help you strategize your bidding.

There are 12 weeks left in the guillotine season. If you're reading this, you're already in a guillotine league. But what's more fun than a guillotine league? Two guillotine leagues. Almost all of you are in a regular (comparatively boring) 12-team league. This is a perfect time to fire up a brand new "shadow" guillotine league, featuring the exact same people. Start a totally free shadow guillotine league today!

Last week's byes and injuries were brutal. Congratulations on finding your way to Week 7. I endured my first "near-death experience" of the 2024 season. I don't recommend it. The anxiety of a guillotine league sweat is very real. 

This document is in four sections:

Be sure to listen to the Chop Podcast, for greater detail and conversation about the week's waiver wire decision.

Self Evaluation

Over the course of this story, you'll see a lot of specific bidding advice. Those values need to be weighed against the strength of your roster and your likelihood of survival. You can’t bid correctly if you don’t establish your level of desperation—hopefully very little.

If you have a short-term roster problem due to bye weeks or injury, your goal should be to solve the problem with a cheap replacement player to cover your roster for a few weeks.

If your roster has a long-term problem, you’ll need to be more aggressive to land a good replacement player who can sustain you for months.  

If your roster is strong enough that you're likely to survive this week, your bids should be low, as you save money for future weeks. 

The dollar amounts I'm offering are right down the middle, appropriate for people who are neither desperate nor bulletproof.

Broad Bidding Strategies

As we're entering the middle part of the season, you may notice my recommended bid amounts are changing to reflect that there's less money available in your league. In a typical 18-team league, your league started the season with a total of $18,000 in available dollars. Now, with 12 teams left, and an average of (perhaps) $600 left per team, we're down to a total pool size of $7,200. There's simply less buying power out there. 

So, how much should you spend? Here’s a broad rule of thumb:

  • Elite players: These are guys who’ll be on your roster for the rest of the year. This category of player would be first and second-round picks if drafting today. Think, Justin Jefferson, Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, or CeeDee Lamb. Max your bidding on elite players at $150-$250.
     
  • Middle-tier players: These guys are probable starters every week, but will probably get replaced by November for better talent. $15-$30. Be careful here. Throwing down $30 twice a week will drain your funds in short order.
     
  • Lower-tier players: These are short-term helpers or depth guys for your bench. $1-$10. 

The 10 Most Chopped Players in Week 6

Sadly, this week's most-chopped list is filled with injured players. The worst way to get knocked out of your guillotine league is on injury, since that's not very predictable. 

10. WAS RB Brian Robinson (13.2% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 6.8/10
  • Upcoming schedule: CAR, CHI, @NYG
  • Last week's median price: $201
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $140

He missed last week's game with a knee injury, announced on Saturday. But some of you were still hungover on Sunday morning and missed the bulletin.  Robinson didn't practice all week, so it's unclear if he'll be available for a very promising matchup with Carolina this week. Robinson had been a very reliable contributor, finishing as a top-20 fantasy back every week.

9. TB WR Mike Evans (13.2% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 7.1/10
  • Upcoming schedule: BAL, ATL, @KC
  • Last week's median price: $238
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $60

This is his third dud game in five weeks. Obviously, Baker Mayfield isn't the problem. He's been great. It's Chris Godwin who's mowing his lawn. Godwin is 6th in targets and No. 1 in receptions. Evans ranks 21st in targets and 28th in receptions. A weirdly leaky Baltimore secondary is coming up this week. The Ravens have allowed the most fantasy points to wideouts.

8. JAC RB Travis Etienne (13.5% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 6.1/10
  • Upcoming schedule: NE, GB, @PHI, 
  • Last week's median price: $102
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $10

Things were already going south for Travis Etienne before last week's shoulder injury. He'd experienced declining snaps in four straight games. Tank Bigsby has emerged as the team's best runner. And the Jaguars' propensity for negative game scripts was certainly hurting as well. After last week's humiliating loss, Doug Pederson said that change was coming. Giving Tank Bigsby the starting job could be (should be) one of those changes.

7. MIN WR Justin Jefferson (13.8% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 8.5/10
  • Upcoming schedule: DET, @LAR, IND
  • Last week's median price: $434
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $300

If you're going to break the bank on someone, this is the model for it. Jefferson checks every box. He's an elite player. He's massively utilized by his team. His bye week is finished. The hardest part of his schedule is over, although two games with Chicago remain. And even in a scenario where Sam Darnold gets hurt, Nick Mullens is a "bombs away" quarterback who can feed Jefferson.

6. BUF RB James Cook (14.1% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 7.2/10
  • Upcoming schedule: TEN, @SEA, MIA, 
  • Last week's median price: $301
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $40

There are two good reasons to shy away from James Cook. First, turf toe is a nagging, debilitating injury for running backs. In addition to being very painful, it saps cutting ability and acceleration. And it's slow to fully heal without rest. There's no way to accelerate the healing; turf toes simply need time. Then there's the matter of Ray Davis, who exploded on the scene on Monday, looking every bit as capable as Cook. Davis' strong play allows Cook to rest longer, for better or worse. And when Cook is ready to return, is he in a full-blown timeshare?

5. CIN RB Zack Moss (15.3% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 6.9/10
  • Upcoming schedule: @CLE, PHI, LV, 
  • Last week's median price: $67
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $35

Nagging injuries and fumbling problems have Zack Moss in a precarious position. He was benched after Sunday's fumble and never returned to the game. Fortunately, Chase Brown didn't do much with the opportunity, reaffirming that the Cincinnati backfield should remain a committee.  Moss started the season running well, but he's seen declining yards in four straight games. It's possible that this week is his nadir, and you could buy Moss at a discount right now.

4. NO WR Chris Olave (15.6% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 5.1/10
  • Upcoming schedule: DEN, @LAC, @CAR, 
  • Last week's median price: $101
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $20

Chris Olave (concussion) will almost certainly miss Thursday's game against the Broncos, which is particularly unfortunate as shutdown cornerback Patrick Surtain will likely miss the game. Assuming he returns for Week 8, he may still have Spencer Rattler as his quarterback, which isn't a death sentence, but I'd prefer Derek Carr.

The bigger, overarching issue for Olave is his modest usage in Klint Kubiak's offense. Even before last week's early exit, Olave was only averaging five targets per game.

3. PHI TE Dallas Goedert (16.4% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 7.2/10
  • Upcoming schedule: @NYG, @CIN, JAC
  • Last week's median price: $60
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $15

Last week was going to be a huge litmus test for Dallas Goedert. He'd posted consecutive strong games in Weeks 4 & 5, but it was unclear if that only happened due to A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith's unavailability.

Last Sunday, with everyone healthy, I was excited to see if Goedert would sustain that same level of production. Boom, three plays into the game, Goedert pops his hammy, and we'll never know

 Backup Grant Calcaterra put up four catches for 67 yards, which we can assume would have gone to Goedert. Hamstrings are notoriously slow to heal and aggravate easily. 

2. DAL QB Dak Prescott (18.1% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: NA
  • Upcoming schedule: BYE, @SF, @ATL
  • Last week's median price: $51
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $1

For leagues that started with 18 teams, there are 12 teams left at this point. There are more than 12 good fantasy quarterbacks. You probably already have a good quarterback. And if you don't, every week another good one will be chopped. The point being, don't spend on quarterbacks at this stage of the season, unless they're absolutely elite, fortune-changers, like Lamar Jackson. 

1. ARI WR Marvin Harrison (18.3% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 6.0/10
  • Upcoming schedule: LAC, @MIA, CHI
  • Last week's median price: $200
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $20

The Cardinals don't play until Monday, so hopefully the extra day helps Marvin Harrison clear the concussion protocol. But the bigger issue is Harrison's ongoing inconsistency. He's now posted three stone-cold dud games, finishing as WR82, WR51, and WR83. That's incredibly dangerous in this format.

Sure, all rookies have dud games, but Harrison's floor is so low, I'm showing a ton of caution here.

Waiver Advice For “Regular” Guys

These are the caliber of guys who are popping up on “traditional league” waiver wires, but you'll also want to consider for guillotine usage.  They're generally cheap and could provide short-term help.

NE QB Drake Maye, Charch recommends $5

Okay, I admit it. Last week at this time, I was skeptical about dropping Drake Maye into a trial by fire with the league's worst offense--against a good Houston defense, no less. Now he faces Jacksonville, a dramatically easier opponent, allowing the most fantasy points to quarterbacks. The past four quarterbacks to face the Jaguars have averaged a whopping 298 yards and 3.3 touchdowns. 

LAR QB Matthew Stafford, Charch recommends $1

Matthew Stafford is available in 65% of guillotine leagues, but with Cooper Kupp's return looming (imminent?) and Puka Nacua's return not too far behind, Stafford's got better days ahead. His bye week is behind him, and he's potentially startable as soon as this week against the Raiders.  I'll note that Week 8's matchup in Minnesota doesn't look promising.

TB RB Sean Tucker, Charch recommends $25

Against a good Saints run defense, good enough to hold Bijan Robinson to 20 yards two weeks ago, Sean Tucker rolled up 192 total yards and nearly 10 yards per carry.  You might be wondering, “When's the last time Rachaad White had 192 yards or 10 yards per carry?”

Answer: Never and never.

Tucker looked far better than White, and we may see Todd Bowles decide that White's foot injury needs plenty of time to get 100% before he sees the field again. Or, maybe it was a one-week aberration. Tampa faces a phenomenal Baltimore run defense this week, allowing the fewest rushing yards to runners, an insane 45 yards per game.  

SF RB Isaac Guerendo, Charch recommends: $10

Isaac Guerendo is going to be a hot pickup in most leagues, but I'm here to be the wet blanket. As of this writing, it's unclear if Jordan Mason is going to be available for Sunday's Super Bowl rematch against the Chiefs. If Mason is going to miss the game, and you want to start him this week, you'll want to nudge up my recommended bidding. Working against Guerendo is a brutally difficult matchup with a great Chiefs run defense this week, and a looming Week 9 bye. Kansas City has allowed the fewest fantasy points to runners. Nobody has topped 46 yards, and that was Derrick freakin' Henry way back in the season opener. 

BUF RB Ray Davis, Charch recommends: $20

If you scroll up to read my commentary about James Cook, you'll see why I'm intrigued by Davis. Once Cook returns from his injury, I don't many scenarios where Davis takes over the backfield. But Davis could find himself in a timeshare with Cook, making him a plausible flex-level starter. 

LAC RB Kimani Vidal, Charch recommends: $15

We've been complaining about Gus Edwards' inexplicable usage for weeks. Finally last Sunday, with Gus on injured reserve, Jim Harbaugh decided to put Vidal in the game. And the guy's first-ever NFL touch is a 38-yard sideline touchdown reception?!

Whaaa?! Jim, if you trusted Vidal enough to heave a bomb to him on his first NFL touch, why wasn't he in your offense weeks ago?

Sadly, Vidal only touched the ball five more times all game, and accumulated a meager 13 yards. But, there's a pathway for Vidal to be a league winner. If anything happens to J.K. Dobbins, Vidal is far more likely to turn into Harbaugh's workhorse than Gus. 

MIN RB Ty Chandler, Charch recommends: $1

As of this writing, Aaron Jones' availability for Sunday's game is unclear. But even if Chandler is the starter, he's facing a tricky matchup. And frankly, Chandler hasn't exactly wowed me.

Against Detroit, non-Kenneth Walker starters are averaging 28 rushing yards, 12 receiving yards, and 0.3 touchdowns per game. Among players with Chandler's 42 carries, he ranks 37th in yards per carry and dead last in avoided tackle rate, just 4.8%. If it turns out that Jones is going to miss extended time, I'll note that the Vikings schedule turns much easier after Detroit.

NE WR DeMario Douglas, Charch recommends: $2

Was it a coincidence that Douglas posted career highs in yards (92) and touchdowns (1) in Drake Maye's first start? Heck no. Douglas dominated all Patriots receivers in targets, target share per routes run, and air yards.

Clearly, Maye likes and trusts Douglas. And here comes Jacksonville, making Douglas a startable asset this week. But I'll note that he's probably on your bench the following three weeks against the Jets, Titans, and Bears. Those teams currently rank 5th, 2nd, and 6th in fantasy points allowed to wideouts.

NE TE Hunter Henry, Charch recommends: $1

In his debut last week, Drake Maye revitalized the Patriots offense. Considering Sunday's opponent, it probably wasn't a one-week fluke. The Bears' Cole Kmet just roared through the Jaguars defense and on the season, Jacksonville has allowed the third-most fantasy points to the position. The Jaguars have ceded tight end touchdowns in three of the past four games.

MIN TE T.J. Hockenson, Charch recommends $5

Hockenson returned to practice two weeks ago and appears on pace to make his 2024 debut this week. He'll likely be eased into play, perhaps with half of his normal workload.  So, Hockenson might not be a reliable contributor until early November. But considering 2024's hellscape at the tight end position, Hockenson is worth planting on the bench for a couple of weeks.

PHI TE Grant Calcaterra, Charch recommends: $1

Dallas Goedert's hamstring injury is significant enough that he was ruled out very quickly from Sunday's game. If he misses a couple of weeks, Grant Calcaterra looks like a plausible emergency starter. He caught four balls for 67 yards in fill-in duty last week. He'll face the Giants and Bengals in the next two weeks. Those teams rank 5th and 26th in fantasy points allowed to the position.