Welcome to Week 8, guillotine leaguers! This weekend represents the halfway point of the guillotine season and you're still alive! Congrats!  New challenges await, as everyone's teams are getting progressively better, while their FAAB budgets are dwindling.

I’m here every Tuesday offering waiver wire guidance to help you strategize your bidding. 

If we've learned anything from this injury-ravaged season, it's that holding injured players is usually a mistake in this format. As an example, every week Christian McCaffrey is still getting people chopped! Even now, he was the 19th-most chopped player

 Nico Collins and Cooper Kupp are in the top 30. As you'll see below, Indy's injured runner Jonathan Taylor will be making an appearance as a top-10 most chopped player.

Roster spaces are simply too valuable to hold injured players who are going to miss more than a game or two. 

In my leagues with Mike Evans, I'm dropping him to free agency on Tuesday, barring an announcement that his injury is far less serious than it appears. I don't think he's going to play for several weeks—see Adam Thielen's hamstring injury as a reference point. Someone else can burn up a roster spot on him, spend valuable FAAB, and then fret about reinjury when he returns. 

If you're going to drop a big-name player, drop him on Tuesday, so people have time to see him in the list of free agents, and spend FAAB on him.

This document is in four sections: 

  • Self-evaluation
  • Broad bidding strategies that apply to everyone.
  • Player-specific recommendations for the 10 most-chopped players.
  • “Regular” waiver wire guys, the type you’re bidding on in traditional (boring) leagues.

Also, be sure to listen to the Chop Podcast, for greater detail and conversation about the week's waiver wire decisions.

Self Evaluation

Throughout this story, you'll see a lot of specific bidding advice. Those values need to be weighed against the strength of your roster and your likelihood of survival. You can’t bid correctly if you don’t establish your level of desperation—hopefully very little.

If you have a short-term roster problem due to bye weeks or injury, your goal should be to solve the problem with a cheap replacement player to cover your roster for a few weeks.

If your roster has a long-term problem, you’ll need to be more aggressive to land a good replacement player who can sustain you for months.  

If your roster is strong enough that you're likely to survive this week, your bids should be low, as you save money for future weeks, when you're more desperate and players are cheaper. 

The dollar amounts I'm offering are right down the middle, appropriate for people who are neither desperate nor bulletproof.

Broad Bidding Strategies

As we're entering the middle part of the season, you may notice my recommended bid amounts are changing to reflect that there's less money available in your league.

In a typical 18-team league, your league started the season with a total of $18,000 in available dollars. Now, with 11 teams left, and an average of (perhaps) $600 left per team, we're down to a total pool size of $6,600. There's simply less buying power out there. 

So, how much should you spend? Here’s a broad rule of thumb:

  • Elite players: These are guys who’ll be on your roster for the rest of the year. This category of player would be first and second-round picks if drafting today. Think, Justin Jefferson, Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, or CeeDee Lamb. Max your bidding on elite players at $200-250.
     
  • Middle-tier players: These guys are probably starters every week but will probably get replaced by Thanksgiving for better talent. $10-$30. Be careful here. Throwing down $30 twice a week will drain your funds in short order.
     
  • Lower-tier players: These are short-term helpers or depth guys for your bench. $1-$5. 

The 10 Most Chopped Players From Week 7

I've been analyzing the Top 10 chopped players for five seasons.  I don't think I've ever seen a more star-packed set of players than this group.

Using last week's median prices for these players, acquiring the 10 of them would cost $2,267!

10. KC TE Travis Kelce (15.1% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 7.6
  • Upcoming schedule: @LV, TB, DEN
  • Last week's median price: $173
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $80

Kelce is as inscrutable as any player this season. Once Rashee Rice went down, his usage reverted to historic norms, and we figured we were safe starting him. But some defenses are scheming specifically to stop Kelce, forcing Mahomes to win with guys like Skyy Moore and Mecole Hardman (which he's doing, in fairness). Kelce remains a high-risk-high-reward player.

9. DET RB David Montgomery (15.2% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 6.1/10
  • Upcoming schedule: TEN, @GB, @HOU
  • Last week's median price: $299
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $210

David Montgomery got hurt early in the Vikings game, returned, but saw limited snaps from that point forward. He'd scored in every game before last Sunday, and it's not a coincidence that he's on this list after snapping his scoring streak. He remains a high-value commodity because Dan Campbell loves to use him at the stripe, and because he's not just a goal-line vulture. Montgomery has eight carries from inside the five, converting five of them.

8. DAL WR CeeDee Lamb (15.3% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 7.3/10 
  • Upcoming schedule: @SF, @ATL, PHI
  • Last week's median price: $322
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $250

The Cowboys are a team in disarray, and it's reflected in CeeDee Lamb's meh productivity. Last year, he topped 100 yards nine times. This year, zero. He's scored in just two games. But there are several reasons for optimism with Lamb. First, he's getting peppered with targets, nine per game. Second, the Mike Zimmer-led Dallas defense is so woeful, it's putting Lamb into pass-first game scripts. Dallas ranks No. 2 in passing play percentage. His bye week is in the rear-view mirror. And lastly, he's really good at his chosen vocation.

7. HOU QB C.J. Stroud (15.3% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: NA
  • Upcoming schedule: IND, @NYJ, DET
  • Last week's median price: $151
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $30

I'm still trying to figure out how the Texans were winning until time expired on the clock with C.J. Stroud throwing 86 scoreless yards. No receiver had more than 28 yards.  And Tank Dell (chopee No. 13 this week, if you were wondering) posted zeros across the board.

Stroud had been very stable, finishing as QB15 or better in six of seven games. In Week 1, he faced this week's opponent, Indy, and finished with 234 yards and two scores. With Nico Collins' return on the horizon, Stroud should be a safe contributor most weeks. But, at this stage of the season, the quarterback position is easy to fill. There are more competent quarterbacks than there are teams left in your league. And that's why you see my very modest bid recommendation.

6. IND RB Jonathan Taylor (15.3% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 8.2
  • Upcoming schedule: @HOU, @MIN, BUF
  • Last week's median price: $251
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $120

This is a thorny situation. Taylor could return from his high ankle sprain as early as this week. But, that's an injury that lingers and aggravates easily. Further complicating matters, Indy's next two opponents, Houston and Minnesota, are both very good run defenses. In the opener against the Texans, Taylor posted 48 rushing yards, no receptions, and one score. 

5. PHI WR DeVonta Smith (16% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 7.1/10
  • Upcoming schedule: @CIN, JAC, @DAL
  • Last week's median price: $176
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $50

He'd finished as a WR2 in every game, until yesterday. The Eagles deployed a run-like-crazy game plan. Like most number two receiving options, sometimes, the Alpha eats and there aren't enough scraps left for the Beta. In Guillotine, Smith is the kind of guy who you'll start for the next month, but getting past Thanksgiving, you'll replace him for an Alpha, like A.J. Brown. 

4. NO RB Alvin Kamara (16.2% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 9.4/10 – No. 1 among runners! 
  • Upcoming schedule: @LAC, @CAR, ATL
  • Last week's median price: $361
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $70

Note: Succumbing to a dozen injuries, the Saints' offense is in disarray, and it's reflected in Alvin Kamara's fantasy finishes. In Weeks 1-4, Kamara's average finish was RB6.  In Weeks 5-7, he slumped to RB21. The Saints offensive line is missing five players on injured reserve, which plays a key role as well. There's a chance Derek Carr comes back, offering hope for a rebound. 

3. MIA WR Tyreek Hill (16.3% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 6.1/10
  • Upcoming schedule: ARI, @BUF, @LAR
  • Last week's median price: $180
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $60

Bidding on Tyreek will test your grit. Tua Tagovailoa is expected to return on Sunday. But will he play eight more games? Eight more quarters? Eight more snaps? I'm showing caution here, not just because of the unknowns around Tua, but also because the Miami offense was so hopelessly, utterly broken without Tua. Are there some bigger underlying problems that Tua's return won't solve?

2. SF WR Deebo Samuel (17% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 5.2/10
  • Upcoming schedule: DAL, BYE, @TB
  • Last week's median price: $202
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $80

If my 81-year-old mother had pneumonia, I'd be worried about whether she was going to be able to host Thanksgiving. But, Deebo Samuel is a 28-year-old athlete, and I'd like to think that he's going to rebound quickly. Maybe even by this weekend's game against Dallas (an important game for the 3-4 Niners). But, with a looming bye, there's a chance that Deebo doesn't play until Week 10, and that reduces my willingness to break the bank on Deebo. 

1. WAS QB Jayden Daniels (22.4% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: NA
  • Upcoming schedule: CHI, @NYG, PIT
  • Last week's median price: $152
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $70

As I've discussed many times, including earlier in this document, at this stage of the season, quarterbacks are a dime a dozen. But, Daniels is one of two quarterbacks worthy of a meaningful bid. Until last week's early exit, he'd finished no worse than QB18, and above QB12 in five of six games. Daniels' rushing gives him a high floor and his passing gives him massive upside. 

Waiver Advice For “Regular” Guys

These are the caliber of guys who are popping up on “traditional league” waiver wires, but you'll also want to consider for guillotine usage.  They're generally cheap and could provide short-term help.

MIA QB Tua Tagovailoa

Tua is expected to make his return on Sunday in a welcoming landing spot against a yielding Arizona defense.  For guillotine use in particular, the question isn’t whether Tua is good enough to help your fantasy team. The question is, can you risk Tua not finishing a game? Obviously (and appropriately) the Dolphins will be hyper-diligent with any indications of further head trauma.

Now that we’re at the midseason, there are more capable quarterbacks available in your league than there are teams left. So, you probably don’t need to roll the dice on Tua’s possible next concussion.

Charch’s recommended bid price: $1

PIT QB Russell Wilson

To my eyes, Russell Wilson looked okay in his Pittsburgh debut, even though his arm strength is clearly waning. Too many of his passes were slow floaters, requiring herculean efforts by George Pickens to battle defenders.

But, at the end of the day, Wilson powered the Steelers to their best offensive output of the season, 409 total yards. His receivers and tight ends were more productive than any game under Justin Fields. The Steelers play the Giants this week, before heading on bye, so only bid on Wilson if you’d start him this week.

Charch’s recommended bid price: $1

CAR RB Jonathon Brooks

Brooks’ practice window has opened, and he’s eligible to come off the PUP list.  But with Chuba Hubbard performing shockingly well, the team has the luxury of taking their time with Brooks.  I don’t expect to see him getting a fantasy-relevant number of carries for several more weeks, so I’d only bid on Brooks if you’ve got an available roster spot and more patience than I’ve got.

Charch’s recommended bid price: $1

PIT RB Jaylen Warren

Thanks to a nagging knee injury, Jaylen Warren has been slow to get going but he’s starting to look a lot more like the playmaker we saw last year.  Over his last three full games, he’s had increasing snaps, rushes, and routes. Warren could be looking at a near 50:50 timeshare, like last year, when he was a reliable fantasy contributor. And through one game, Russell Wilson looks like he’s going to help the overall Pittsburgh offense.

Charch’s recommended bid price: $20

SF WRs Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall

Brandon Aiyuk’s season is over, Deebo Samuel has pneumonia, and the Niners will to turn to Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall for reps. Of the two, Jennings is the preferred player. When Aiyuk (and Samuel) missed the Niners’ Week 3 game, Jennings splashed for 11-175-3. But complicating matters, Jennings has a hip injury that kept him out of practice last week.

As of this writing, it’s unclear if Jennings will play Sunday, but his hip injury isn’t believed to be a long-term issue.  In his first gameplay since his August shooting, Pearsall was thrust into heavy action, leading the team in snaps and routes run. But that was without Jennings available.  The Niners offense doesn’t normally have a reliable third fantasy receiver, so I’m nervous about starting Pearsall if Jennings is active.

Charch’s recommended bid price: $50 for Jennings and $5 for Pearsall

TB WRs Sterling Shepard, Jalen McMillan, and Trey Palmer

The Bucs lost their two starting wideouts on Monday night. Chris Godwin suffered a season-ending ankle injury near the end of the game. Foolishly, Mike Evans tried to play through his mild hamstring injury on Monday night, turning it into a serious hamstring injury. Like Adam Thielen, Evans' hamstring injury appears to be severe, and he's likely to miss several weeks. So who do you pick up?  Trey Palmer has the most direct path to playing time, because he played 412 snaps at the slot last year, and he dropped into Godwin's role.

McMillan and Shepard may be battling each other for Mike Evans' vacated routes. On Monday night, Evans left the game early, and the two ran almost the identical number of routes, although McMillan had a much higher target share. Further confusing the situation, OC Liam Coen McMillan may choose to leave McMillan in his normal position as the team's third wide receiver. That would leave Shepard to run Evans' routes. Got all that? Good, then maybe you can explain it to me.

Charch’s recommended bid price: $20 for Shepard, $10 for McMillan and $10 for Palmer

CLE WR Cedric Tillman

Unless Jameis Winston has changed his style of play, it’s going to be bombs away for his downfield targets, including physical receiver Cedric Tillman, who can battle for deep contested catches, if they come his way. Tillman moved into the starter’s role when Amari Cooper was traded last week and he immediately garnered 69 snaps, ran 82% of the routes, and saw 11 targets. Impressive! Because he’s running Cooper’s routes, I prefer Tillman to the mundane Jerry Jeudy.

Charch’s recommended bid price: $1

NE TE Hunter Henry

Rostering any Patriot feels like a shortcut to a quick guillotine death, but Henry looks like the most startable New England player. In his two games with Drake Maye, he’s finished as TE7 and TE4. Rookies often look to their safety valve tight ends, and while that’s happened with Henry, he’s also had some designed deep passes from Maye. A word of caution, though, as the Patriots enter a grueling stretch of their schedule with games against the Jets, Titans, and Bears.

Charch’s recommended bid price: $1