Welcome to Week 9, guillotine leaguers!  

I’m here every Tuesday offering waiver wire guidance to help you strategize your bidding. 

I love that guillotine league strategies dynamically change from month to month. Remember in September, when you were begging for 8 PPR points from middle-tier guys like Austin Ekeler, Tyler Allgeier, Zack Moss, Rico Dowdle, or Tyler Lockett?  Back then, those 8 points were enough to keep you from the chopping block.

Now that we're entering November, it's critical that you understand that those middle-tier guys are going to kill your team, sooner than later.

On average, the Week 1 cut line is only 60 points. Week 9's average cutline will be around 90 points.

Your players need to average 11 points to reach the 90-point threshold—and 90 points only get you to last place. If you want to rest more comfortably, you'll need closer to 110 points, that's 14 points per player.

Even if you're a G-league novice, you already know that middle-tier players won't deliver you a championship. Your December roster needs to be 100% star players. From today forward, you can't spend more than $10-20 for any player who isn't part of your end-game plans.

This document is in four sections:

Also, be sure to listen to the Chop Podcast, for greater detail and conversation about the week's waiver wire decisions.

And guillotine league players, you can get 20% off the amazing toolset at FantasyLife, including my guillotine-specific rankings, by using the promo code "CHOP20".

Self-Evaluation

Throughout this column, you'll see a lot of specific bidding advice. Those values need to be weighed against the strength of your roster and your likelihood of survival. You can’t bid correctly if you don’t establish your level of desperation—hopefully very little.

If you have a short-term roster problem due to bye weeks or injury, your goal should be to solve the problem with a cheap replacement player to cover your roster for a few weeks.

If your roster has a long-term problem, you’ll need to be more aggressive to land a good replacement player who can sustain you for months.

Broad Bidding Strategies

I write this every week, and it bears repeating: There’s no single way to win a guillotine league. But I can safely say, that the clearest path to a guillotine league championship is to survive until mid-season and have a lot of FAAB left. In short, save your FAAB unless absolutely necessary. Except for the truly desperate, your goal is to conserve cash.

So, how much should you spend? Here’s a broad rule of thumb:

  • Elite players: These are guys who’ll be in your roster for the rest of the year. This category of player would be first and second-round picks if drafting today. Think, Justin Jefferson, Saquon Barkley, CeeDee Lamb, or Lamar Jackson. Max your bidding on elite players at $300-$350. No more, unless you’re truly desperate.
     
  • Middle-tier players: These guys are probable starters, but only for another month or so. $10-$20. Be careful here. Throwing down $40 twice a week will drain your funds in short order.
     
  • Lower-tier players: These are short-term helpers or depth guys for your bench. $1-$5. 

The 10 Most Chopped Players in Week 8

10. BAL RB Derrick Henry (15% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 7.0/10
  • Upcoming schedule: DEN, CIN, @PIT, 
  • Last week's median price: $424
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $350

I woke up Tuesday stunned to find Henry on this list, considering that he scored and posted 73 yards. But for the 15% of you who suddenly can bid on Henry, Merry Christmas!  If you've been saving your FAAB, it's for moments like this. You don't need me to explain how valuable and reliable Henry has been. The only detraction you can find is his lack of receiving, which is exactly how he landed on this list this week. Note that Baltimore's bye is Week 14.

9. BUF WR Amari Cooper (15.6% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 3.9/10
  • Upcoming schedule: MIA, @IND, KC
  • Last week's median price: $116
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $20

I rolled the dice on Amari Cooper in one of my guillotine leagues last week, and it ended with a near-death experience, as I had to sweat out Monday Night Football before avoiding the chopping block. Despite Cooper doubling his snap count last week, from 19 to 38 snaps in his two Buffalo games, he only saw two targets. Khalil Shakir is finally healthy and productive. Rookie Keon Coleman is starting to round into professional form. And working against all the Bills receivers is, arguably, the toughest remaining schedule of any team. There are zero positive matchups left on the Bills' docket.  And Cooper will have to overcome some brutal matchups against KC, SF, and the Jets. Plus, he's still got a bye week remaining in Week 12. 

8. DET WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (15.9% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 7.7/10
  • Upcoming schedule: @GB, @HOU, JAC
  • Last week's median price: $333
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $300

Funny, the thing working against Amon-Ra St. Brown is an overly productive Detroit offense. The Lions simply have too many weapons, and sometimes, there's not enough ball to go around for everyone to be fed. As many of you know, Sam LaPorta has suffered this fate many times.

Also working against St. Brown is Dan Campbell's Lions run-heavy orientation. Detroit ranks 27th in pass play percentage. But St. Brown is a fantastic player and his dud games are rare--last Sunday was his first bad game since opening week. This week, he's got a very promising matchup against Green Bay's new slot defender, Javon Bullard. He's allowing a 77% catch rate and gave up a touchdown last week.

7. LV TE Brock Bowers (17% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 8.7/10
  • Upcoming schedule: @CIN, BYE, @MIA, 
  • Last week's median price: $156
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $110

Brock Bowers leads all tight ends in receptions and yards. The only thing that's kept him from achieving superstar status is his paltry one touchdown. But with this much use, he's likely to find the end zone (he says, while averting his gaze from Kyle Pitts' 2021 season), right?  Last Sunday was replete with tight end touchdowns, so everyone is feeling pretty good about their tight end, but Bowers is a super safe option. He's finished as a top-five fantasy tight end five times. And on the season, he's TE2 overall.

6. PHI RB Saquon Barkley (17.3% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 8.6/10
  • Upcoming schedule: JAC, @DAL, WAS
  • Last week's median price: $414
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $350

Like Henry, this one's gonna be expensive. Even Barkley's "dud" game last week was a 100-yard effort, but he failed to score and only caught one pass for three yards. Needless to say, Barkley is playing with a rejuvenated spirit, finishing as a top-three runner three times, and is RB4 overall. His remaining schedule is, arguably, the easiest in the league, with only one difficult matchup (Baltimore in Week 13), and six strongly favorable matchups (Jaguars, Panthers, Commanders twice, and Cowboys twice). 

5. NYJ RB Breece Hall (17.7% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 8.9/10
  • Upcoming schedule: HOU, @ARI, IND
  • Last week's median price: $349
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $250

In the three games since Todd Downing took over the play-calling duties, Breece Hall's usage has skyrocketed, landing him with a massive 9.4/10 utilization score, thanks to an 81% snap rate and 74% carry rate. And his receiving chops usually keep Hall off this list, but he garnered just 1 catch last week—one game removed from a 9-catch, 103-yard receiving day. Two of his next three games are against bottom-five fantasy run defenses. The Jets' bye is in Week 12.

4. SEA RB Kenneth Walker (18.5% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 8.7/10
  • Upcoming schedule: LAR, BYE, @SF
  • Last week's median price: $302
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $200

I adore Kenneth Walker. He's fantasy football's most unheralded elite running back. In his six full games, he's finished as a top-10 runner five times. Among runners with his 74 carries, Walker ranks No.1 in avoided tackles. Zach Charbonnet is almost entirely an afterthought, especially at the stripe. Charbonnet has just one carry from inside the five-yard line when Walker's been available. This week offers Walker an easy matchup against Los Angeles, but then a bye and a trip to San Francisco.

3. ATL WR Drake London (19.3% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 8.0/10
  • Upcoming schedule: DAL, @NO, @DEN
  • Last week's median price: $237
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $125

Is Drake London Atlanta's alpha receiver or is it Darnell Mooney? It's really close. Since Week 5, they're nearly tied in routes run, targets, receptions, and touchdowns. Thankfully, they're both doing well and will likely prosper against Dallas this week and the Saints next week. Both defenses are battered by injury. Atlanta's bye is in Week 12.

2. GB QB Jordan Love (19.6% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: NA
  • Upcoming schedule: DET, BYE, @CHI, 
  • Last week's median price: $50
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $15

Love's groin injury is mild enough that he could play this week against Detroit. But the Packers are a notoriously conservative team about injury timetables. And with a bye looming next week, it's possible that Matt LaFleur takes the safe approach and starts Malik Willis to give Love two full weeks of rest. Running counter to that thinking, this week's game against Detroit has massive playoff-seeding implications. Love has played well, but I can't bid much on an injured player heading into his bye week.

1. Jordan Mason (23.2% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 7.0/10
  • Upcoming schedule: BYE, @TB, SEA, 
  • Last week's median price: $82
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $15

Your bidding decision on Mason is suddenly quite complex.  Mason suffered a setback on his shoulder injury but likely will be available after the Niners' bye this week. If not, Isaac Guerendo can step in if needed. He looked good last Sunday night. But Christian McCaffrey may also be available, and he likely returns as the team's starter, ankle-willing. Or maybe, the team takes it slow with McCaffrey and Mason retains the lead role. Or maybe, CMC just isn't ready yet. Or maybe, he suffers a setback. One way or another, it looks like Mason's prospects of appearing in your starting lineup are increasingly bleak.

Waiver Advice For “Regular” Guys

These are the caliber of guys who are popping up on “traditional league” waiver wires, but you'll also want to consider for guillotine usage.  They're generally cheap and could provide short-term help.

As you'll see below, it's a good week to need a replacement quarterback! But remember, there are only 10 teams left in your league, and there are about 20 serviceable quarterbacks. You don't need to break the bank for any of them.

DEN QB Bo Nix

Some people will scoff at Nix's massive box score from last week, because of his opponent, Carolina. But, even before last Sunday, he was QB13 for the full season. It's weird to think of Nix as safe, but his rushing gives you a high floor—in eight games, he's only fallen below QB16 twice. He's got Baltimore on the schedule coming up this week, a shockingly favorable matchup. The Ravens rank last in passing yards and passing touchdowns allowed. You probably already have a good quarterback, but he's worth a modest bid.

Charch's recommended bid: $20

NO QB Derek Carr

Here's a sneaky option for anyone looking for short-term quarterback help. If Derek Carr can return this week, he'll be armed with Chris Olave, and more importantly, he'll face Carolina. The Panthers have allowed multiple passing touchdowns in four of the past five games. And next week, Carr faces Atlanta, a team that's allowed multiple passing touchdowns in four straight games. As a two-week starter, you can throw a buck or two on Carr.

Charch's recommended bid: $2

LAR QB Matthew Stafford

The rather sudden appearance of Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp sparked fantastic results from Matthew Stafford last Thursday, and it seems very replicable, including this week against Seattle. He's got a tricky matchup against the Dolphins in Week 10, but the only other potential stopper is his Week 16 meeting with the Jets. The Rams had their bye in Week 6.

Charch's recommended bid: $10

CLE QB Jameis Winston

The biggest story of last Sunday (aside from the entire country learning the name of Tyrique Stevenson) was the successful debut of new Browns starting quarterback Jameis Winston.

Winston looked better than hoped in his debut and his budding chemistry with Cedric Tillman (see below) bears watching.  Before bidding on Winston, you'll want to ask yourself if you'd start him against the Chargers—statistically one of the best pass defenses. The following week, the Browns are on bye. And looking past that, there are looming difficult-looking games against Denver, Kansas City, and Pittsburgh twice. You may not want to soak up a roster spot on Winston if you wouldn't play him in those downside-laden matchups.

Charch's recommended bid: $5

CLE WR Cedric Tillman

If you read this article last week, you saved a lot of money on Tillman. Last week, I recommended a $1 bid on Tillman, which likely would have put him on your roster. After his epic performance last Sunday, he'll cost a lot more now, but he's still targetable. His schedule is important to note, as he faces a (probably?) good Chargers secondary that's allowing less than one touchdown pass per game. Then the Browns go on bye. I say "probably" about the Chargers secondary because they've faced some woefully anemic opposing quarterbacks. It's possible they're a lot worse than they've looked.

In the two games since the Amari Cooper trade, Tillman has been massively involved in the Browns offense, notching a 24% target share in both games.

Running Backs

Hey, where are the running backs?  Every week, I offer cheap pickup recommendations at every position. But this week, there aren't any likely free-agent runners who are good enough to warrant a roster spot at this stage of the guillotine season. Instead, put your FAAB toward a runner who got chopped on Monday night.

LAC WR Ladd McConkey

I like Ladd McConkey, but I'm hesitant to recommend rostering him. On the positive side, he looks like the go-to receiver on a team that can only support one fantasy wideout. He's a great route runner, who gets open a lot. And he’s terrific after the catch, just like at Georgia. But, Los Angeles is a low-volume passing offense, ranking 29th in pass attempts. His box scores have been almost entirely mundane until last Sunday. It’s hard to know if yesterday was the start of a reliable uptick in production for McConkey, or if it was an aberration. Quentin Johnston, DJ Chark, and Hayden Hurst all missed last Sunday's game, and if they return, McConkey could see a downtick in volume.

Charch's recommended bid: $1

TEN WR Calvin Ridley
For good reason, Calvin Ridley is available in 60% of guillotine leagues. He's been absolutely brutal for most of the year, with just two good games and five horrific ones. The reason for optimism is that last Sunday's massive increase in production matches up with DeAndre Hopkins' departure. Previously, Brian Callahan had been using Ridley as a long-ball specialist, with an 18-yard (!) average pass—a distance that makes it very hard to complete passes. But last week, Ridley's ADOT dropped to 11 yards and voila, he posted huge numbers.  We can hope that kind of usage continues against the Patriots this week.

Charch's recommended bid: $1

IND WR Josh Downs

Downs is emerging as the best of Indy's receivers. Last week, he scored once, and nearly twice. I'm not sure he's startable until Shane Steichen finally decides he's serious about making the playoffs and starts Joe Flacco. If that happens, Downs could be an every-week starter for another month, and maybe more.

This week, Downs has the league's most favorable slot matchup, Minnesota. The Vikings have been roasted by slot receivers all year, including Cooper Kupp, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jayden Reed, and Deebo Samuel, who all scored and/or topped 110 yards.

Charch's recommended bid: $1

TB TE Cade Otton

Last week, while we were all battling to figure out which Tampa receiver to pick up, the correct answer was tight end Cade Otton.

Otton is getting massive utilization, including an 86% route rate and since Week 3, a 21% target rate. With Chris Godwin and Mike Evans out, there's little reason to think his usage will subside. He'll face the Chiefs this week, and they're getting hammered by tight ends, ranking 32nd in receptions and yards allowed to the position.

Charch's recommended bid: $20