Congratulations, you survived Week 1 in your guillotine league!  Getting chopped in Week 1 is an ignominious achievement and you’ve avoided it! What a relief. 

It’s the first guillotine league waiver wire of the year. You’re about to bid on some really good players, most of whom underperformed (or didn’t play at all, ahem, CMC) in Week 1.

I’m here every Tuesday offering waiver wire guidance to help you bid successfully. And note that, most of the time, “successfully,” means not getting (ie, overpaying for) players.

This document is broken down in four sections: 

Before we get into bidding advice, the single most important 10 minutes you can spend this season is watching the explanation of our waiver wire system. Bidding is the lifeblood of the guillotine league, as your trying to land guys like Christian McCaffrey. 

Understanding the nuances of our waiver system will give you a massive advantage over people who don’t bother to learn it.

Also, be sure to listen to the Chop Podcast for greater detail and conversation about the week's waiver wire decision.

Self Evaluation

Critical to knowing how much to bid is an honest self-evaluation of your roster. How did your roster fare in Week 1?  And more importantly, based on everything you saw, what do you expect next week from your roster? Don’t just replay Week 1 in your mind! Ask yourself, who’ll get better? Who do worse? How will next week's matchups shuffle the deck?

Self-doubt can run rampant right now. Be careful not to overreact! Week 1 always has some weirdness and you don’t want to overreact.  And remember, next week, you have a 95% chance of survival.

If you’re serious about this exercise, plot out the expected fantasy points from your Week 2 starters. If they total to a number below 70 points, you should be more aggressive in your bidding. If they total to a number above 90 points, you’ll be more passive.

If you have a short-term roster problem due to injury, say Christian McCaffrey, Jordan Addison, David Njoku, or Puka Nacua (hopefully short term) your goal should be to solve the problem with a cheap replacement player to cover your roster for a few weeks.

If you roster has long-term problem, you’ll need to be more aggressive to land a good replacement player who can sustain you for months.

Broad Bidding Strategies

There’s no single way to win a guillotine league. But, I can safely say, the clearest path to a guillotine league championship is to survive until mid-season and have a lot of FAAB left. In short, save your FAAB unless absolutely necessary. Except for the truly desperate, your goal in to conserve cash.

My rule of thumb: For every $100 you spend in Week 1, your chances of winning the league decrease by 10%. 

So, how much should you spend? Here’s a broad rule of thumb:

  • Elite players:  These are guys who’ll be in your roster for the rest of the year. Here's where it gets fun. We're going to separate the rubes from those of us playing the long game, with patience. Newbs are going to lose their minds at the prospect of landing Christian McCaffrey.  But remember, this isn’t your last shot at CMC! He’s likely to come up again. Max your bidding on elite players at $150-$200. No more, unless you’re already truly desperate.
     
  • Middle-tier players: These guys are probable starters every week, but will probably get replaced by November for better talent. $25-$50. 
     
  • Lower-tier players: These are short term helpers or depth guys for your bench. $1-$10.

The 10 Most Chopped Players in Week 1

10. BUF TE Dalton Kincaid (12.5% chopped)

  • Utilization Score: 3.2/10
  • Upcoming schedule: @Mia, Jac, @Bal
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $55
  • Note: His one lonely target was a major bummer, but I'm not panicking on Kincaid…yet. He ran twice as many routes as Dawson Knox in the opener, and I'm confident his role will continue to expand. The question is, how quickly? 

9. PIT RB Jaylen Warren (12.7% chopped)

  • Utilization score: 2.8/10
  • Upcoming schedule: @Den, LAC, @Ind
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $30
  • Notes: To the surprise of nobody, our first look at Arthur Smith as the offensive coordinator of the Steelers was chock full of disappointments. None more so than Warren's massively reduced role with just 19 snaps, 2 rushing attempts, and 2 targets. Plus, Najee Harris got the team's only carry from inside the five.

8. DET WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (12.8% chopped)

  • Utilization score: 4.5/10
  • Upcoming schedule: @TB, @NYJ, LV
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $150
  • Note: It's hard to imagine any scenario where St. Brown's Week 1 isn't a total aberration. He was incredibly dependable last year and the Lions offense looks every bit as good this season. I'm willing to open my wallet for St. Brown, despite a potentially tough game in New York in two weeks.

7. CIN QB Joe Burrow (13% chopped)

  • Utilization score:  N/A QB
  • Upcoming schedule: @KC, Was, @Car
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $10
  • Notes: Burrow should bounce back once Tee Higgins returns and Ja'Marr Chase gets his legs under him—maybe as soon as Sunday. I don't love this week's tough matchup in Arrowhead, but his next two games look like smash spots.

6. LV RB Zamir White (13.3% chopped)

  • Utilization score: 5.1/10
  • Upcoming schedule: @Bal, Car, Cle
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $25
  • Notes: I'm showing caution here. Alexander Mattison was frustratingly involved, with 12 more snaps than White. Mattison is also the clear pass-catching back, with 14 more routes run. The schedule is a major red flag, with two likely-difficult matchups against Baltimore and Cleveland.

5. SF WR Brandon Aiyuk (14% chopped)

  • Utilization score: 4.8/10
  • Upcoming schedule:  @Min, @LAR, NE
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $70
  • Notes: Aiyuk played most of the game but was only targeted four times and he dropped a touchdown pass.  Considering his late arrival to camp, I'm not surprised that he had some issues in Week 1. I was heartened to see the Niners offensive line provide adequate protection for Brock Purdy. Once Aiyuk hits his rhythm, maybe as soon as this week, he'll be an every-week starter.

4. NO WR Chris Olave (15% chopped)

  • Utilization score: 2.7/10
  • Upcoming schedule: @Dal, Phi, @Atl
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $55
  • Note: In a Week 1 blowout win, the game script turned away from Chris Olave early and never returned. He only saw two targets and 13 air yards in the game. He should return to his role as a focal point of the passing game this Sunday against Dallas.

3. ATL WR Drake London (15.1% chopped)

  • Utilization score: 3.5/10
  • Upcoming schedule: @Phi, KC, NO
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $35
  • Note: More troubling than London's lack of involvement was Kirk Cousins' play, which looked completely alien. Cousins didn't make his progressions and often wasn't planting fully on his surgically-repaired right foot. Still, Cousins' track record suggests he'll get better with more reps in Zach Robinson's new system. 

2. ARI WR Marvin Harrison (16.9% chopped)

  • Utilization score: 3.2/10
  • Upcoming schedule: LAR, Det, Was
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $50
  • Note: We were all frustrated by Harrison's lack of targets—particularly Kyler Murray missing Harrison for a wide-open 100%-probability touchdown. But Harrison drew a lot of coverage from excellent cornerback Rasul Douglas last Sunday, which explains some of his inactivity. Harrison's role will surely expand and the upcoming schedule is favorable.

1.  SF RB Christian McCaffrey (17.8% chopped)

  • Utilization score: N/A
  • Upcoming schedule: @Min, @LAR, NE
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $150
  • Note: Very likely, you won't land CMC at my recommended bidding price. In most leagues, someone will freak out and blow $500 on him. But Jordan Mason's amazing play on Monday night should be a cautionary tale for CMC. Yes, Kyle Shanahan usually uses a bellcow. But will Mason's success mean a shared backfield in an effort to keep CMC fresh for the playoffs? Remember, likely, this isn't your last chance to bid on CMC.

Waiver Advice For “Regular” Guys

These are the guys that are popping up on regular league waiver wires, who you'll also want to consider for guillotine usage.  They're generally cheap and could provide short-term help.

Justin Fields (40% availability) – 

  • Note: I didn't love his passing, but he rushed 14 times for 57 yards, ranking third among quarterbacks. If he continues to start over Russell Wilson, that kind rushing will keep his floor reasonably high.
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $5, with the caveat that Wilson could revert to the starting role as quickly as this week.

Jaleel McLaughlin (14% availability)  – 

  • Note: McLaughlin is possibly the lead back in Denver.  He played more early-down snaps. His box score wasn’t great: 10 rushes for 27 yards, but Williams only got eight carries for 23 yards, similarly bad. McLaughlin finished with five receptions for 1 yard.
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $20

Tank Bigsby (21% availability) – 

  • Note: Bigsby led the Jaguars in rushing, carrying the ball 12 times for a career-high 73 yards. Etienne also had 12 carries but managed 44 yards. Etienne got a goal line carry, which is a big distinction…for now.
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $25

Bucky Irving (17% availability) – 

  • Note: Those with Rachaad White should have some concern. In Irving’s first ever game, he got 1/3 of the snaps and 1/3 of the carries. Irving was very productive, averaging 6.9 yards per carry, with White’s managing just 2.1. An increased role is likely incoming, and very possibly, goal-line work, based on his powerful straight-ahead running style.
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $25

Dameon Pierce (35% availability) – 

  • Note: Pierce didn’t get much work, but is the clear handcuff to Joe Mixon. No other runner touched the field. Cam Akers was a healthy scratch.
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $1

Demarcus Robinson (15% availability) and Tyler Johnson (100% availability) – 

  • Note: Puka Nacua is likely to miss several weeks and both players got a massive uptick in usage. It's possible that Robinson retains his role as third-receiver, and Johnson walks into Nacua's role. But more than likely, Robinson will be the primary benefactor with a lot of extra targets.
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $20 on Robinson, who'll still be flex-worthy after Nacua comes back. And $5 on Johnson if you'll start him over the next three or four games while Nacua recovers.

Josh Downs (23% availability) – 

  • Note: It's currently unclear when he'll return, but the Colts didn’t put him on the PUP list, so probably soon. I’m interested in any receiver who plays in the vertical stylings of Anthony Richardson.
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $2

Jalen McMillan (37% availability) – 

  • Note: Incredibly, McMillan led Mike Evans and Chris Godwin in snap count and routes run!  He only posted three targets and one catch, which is worrisome, but his one reception was a 32-yard touchdown. 
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $5

Isaiah Likely (17% availability) – 

  • Note: Likely was the highest scoring TE in Week 1 and looks like a focal point of the Ravens’ offense. Likely dominated Mark Andrews last Thursday, and walked away with an amazing 9.9 utilization score by Dwain McFarland. He got 34% of the team’s targets, 40% of the air yards, and posted an impressive 9.4 ADOT. 
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $80

Colby Parkinson (32% availability) – 

  • Note: In his Rams debut, Parkinson led all tight ends in snaps, 69. He caught four passes for 47 yards and looked athletic. With Puka Nacua missing approximately a month, Parkinson looks like an every-week starter at a position of need.
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $20

Jordan Akins (99.9% availability) – 

  • Akins got a ton of playing time once David Njoku went down, basically walking right into Njoku's role. With Cleveland's dearth of weapons and predilection for tight end targets, Akins could be surprisingly viable.
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $1