Welcome to Week 3, guillotine leaguers!  

Let me guess, you’ve got injury woes? Same here. Our annual war of attrition is already a bloodbath. At this point, if you’re only missing one key starter, you’re probably in better shape than most of your league mates. 

Losing an impact starter this early in the season, with little help on the bench, is panic-inducing for guillotine players. Keep reading for angles to overcome the loss!

I’m Paul Charchian, Director of Guillotine Leagues at Fantasy Life. I’m here every Tuesday offering Guillotine League waiver wire guidance to help you strategize your bidding. 

This document is in four sections: 

A reminder from last week: Before we get into bidding advice, the single most important 10 minutes you can spend this season is watching the explanation of our waiver wire system. Understanding the nuances of our waiver system will give you a massive advantage over people who don’t bother to learn it.

Also, be sure to listen to the Chop Podcast, for greater detail and conversation about the week's waiver wire decision.

Self Evaluation

With two weeks of NFL action in the books, you now have two data points with which to evaluate your roster. You can’t bid correctly if you don’t establish your level of desperation—hopefully very little. If you've finished in the bottom quartile both weeks, it's probably time for some tough self-evaluation and to open your wallet.

If you have a short-term roster problem due to injury, say, Deebo Samuel, A.J. Brown, or Jordan Addison, your goal should be to solve the problem with a cheap replacement player to cover your roster for a few weeks. Their immediate backups, Jauan Jennings, Jahan Dotson, and Jalen Nailor, respectively, are obvious options. But you can use anyone who can muddle their way to 8-10 PPR points.

If your roster has a long-term problem, possibly due to significant injuries to Isiah Pacheco, Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, or Christian McCaffrey, you’ll need to be more aggressive to land a good replacement player who can sustain you for months.

Broad Bidding Strategies

I wrote this last week, and it bears repeating: There’s no single way to win a guillotine league. But I can safely say, the clearest path to a guillotine league championship is to survive until mid-season and have a lot of FAAB left.

In short, save as much FAAB as possible. Except for the truly desperate, your goal in Week 3 is to conserve cash.

So, how much should you spend? Here’s a broad rule of thumb:

  • Elite players: These are guys who’ll be on your roster for the rest of the year. This category of player would be first and second-round picks if drafting today. Guys like Justin Jefferson, Saquon Barkley, CeeDee Lamb, Bijan Robinson, or Nico Collins. Max your bidding on elite players at $150-$200, unless you’re already truly desperate.
     
  • Middle-tier players: These guys are probable starters every week, but will probably get replaced by November for better talent. I bid around $25-$50 for these guys, but be careful here. Throwing down $40 twice a week will drain your funds quickly.
     
  • Lower-tier players: These are short-term helpers, handcuffs, or depth guys for your bench. $1-$10.

The 10 Most Chopped Players After Week 2

10. Hou RB Joe Mixon (12.3% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 8.2 / 10
  • Upcoming schedule: @Min, Jac, Buf
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $75
  • Note: Mixon left last week's game with a (seemingly) mild ankle sprain, which contributed to his modest box score. Mixon faces a tricky matchup with PFF's No. 2 run defense, Minnesota, this Sunday. We'll talk more about his replacement, Cam Akers, a little later.

9. Hou WR Tank Dell (12.4% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 4.8 / 10
  • Upcoming schedule: @Min, Jac, Buf
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $35
  • Note: The good news for Dell is that he's running as many routes as Collins and Diggs. What's hurt Dell are catchable targets, where he's averaging just three per game, compared to Nico Collins who averages 7.5.  C.J. Stroud is too good of a quarterback to keep misfiring to Dell, so I like buying low on him.

8. Sea RB Kenneth Walker (12.8% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 8.5 / 10, but note that he missed Week 2
  • Upcoming schedule: Mia, @Det, NYG
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $90
  • Note: Walker's replacement, Zach Charbonnet, has looked mundane, especially as a runner, averaging just 2.7 and 1.5 YPC in the two Seahawks games. Some of the blame falls on the battered Seattle offensive line, which ranks 31st in ESPN's Run Block Win Rate. It's highly likely that Walker will return to the workhorse role we saw in Week 1, when he posted 20 carries and a 5.2 YPC average.

7. Buf QB Josh Allen (13.3% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score:  NA QB
  • Upcoming schedule: Jac, @Bal, @Hou
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $110
  • Note: Last year, Josh Allen posted just one dud game all year, so even with all the tumult at wide receiver, Allen will prove to be reliable once again. Last week's game script turned away from Allen quickly, and he only threw 19 passes. That's unlikely to happen again, with three straight challenging matchups on the schedule.

6. Det TE Sam LaPorta (13.9% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 5.2 / 10
  • Upcoming schedule: @Ari, Sea, BYE
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $75
  • Note: Sam LaPorta leads all tight ends in routes run, 73, which you'd think would make him bulletproof in the guillotine format.  But with just 7 targets, LaPorta's meager 10% target rate ranks 48th (!) at the position. LaPorta is way too good to continue to be avoided by Jared Goff, especially with Amon-Ra St. Brown laboring with a leg issue.

5. SF RB Christian McCaffrey (14.1% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: NA, INJ
  • Upcoming schedule: On IR and will miss at least three more games
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $10
  • Note: CMC's IR designation means he can't return any sooner than three weeks, but numerous media reports suggest he's going to miss closer to six weeks. As I discuss frequently, in a guillotine league, your vision should be limited to three or four weeks. His return timetable is outside that window. In all probability, this isn't your last crack at CMC. He'll likely be chopped again in your league before he returns. And, Jordan Mason might be better [gasp!] than Christian McCaffrey at this stage of their respective careers.

4. Phi WR A.J. Brown (14.3% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 9.1 / 10, but note that he missed Week 2
  • Upcoming schedule: @NO, @TB, BYE
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $30
  • Note: On Monday night, Brown indicated that he's likely to miss another game or two, which means I'm reeling in my bidding on the talented player. Normally, I'd be bidding closer to $120 for someone of Brown's caliber. 

3. Mia WR Tyreek Hill (14.5% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 6.9 / 10
  • Upcoming schedule: @Sea, Ten, @NE
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $120
  • Note: We don't know exactly when Tua Tagovailoa will return (he was placed on IR today), but it probably doesn't matter for your bidding on Hill. Guillotine players should only be focused on the next three or four weeks, and Tua's return is likely outside of that window. By backup standards, Skylar Thompson isn't half bad and he's got a big arm to help unlock Hill's patented highlight plays. But clearly, this makes Hill a more dangerous proposition than before, especially if Mike McDaniel leans on his running game.

2. TB RB Rachaad White (15.4% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 7.2 / 10
  • Upcoming schedule: Den, Phi, @Atl
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $40
  • Note: I don't love what I've seen from White as a runner, averaging just 2.0 yards per carry. Meanwhile, running in the same offense, Bucky Irving is averaging 5.3 yards per carry. White has gotten both of the team's runs inside the five-yard line, but he's failed to score on either carry, suggesting that Irving could start getting those touches too. White is helping through the air, where he's caught all seven of his targets, but every reception has been behind the line of scrimmage. Note that Tampa's offensive line ranks 30th in ESPN's Run Block Win Rate.

1. KC TE Travis Kelce (16.5% chop rate)

  • Utilization Score: 5.5 / 10
  • Upcoming schedule: @Atl, @LAC, NO
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $50
  • Note: Kelce has opened the season with back-to-back duds, opening the door for questions about his age and role in the offense. Is Andy Reid already planning for the playoffs, trying to remove some reps from Kelce's workload? Likely Kelce bounces back.

Waiver Advice For “Regular” Guys

These are the caliber of guys who are popping up on “traditional league” waiver wires, but you'll also want to consider for guillotine usage.  They're usually cheap and could provide short-term help.

Raiders QB Gardner Minshew ($5)

  • Minshew traveled cross country to topple Baltimore and now faces a far easier task, hosting Carolina. Not only is Minshew very startable this week, but also two games later against the Broncos and two games after that, against the Rams. The immediate excellence of Brock Bowers gives Minshew three legitimate receiving threats.

Texans RB Cam Akers ($5)

  • Houston wants Joe Mixon to be a workhorse back, but 1,700 carries later, will his body let him?  Mixon left last week’s game with an ankle injury, yielding to Cam Akers. Proving to be a medical unicorn, Akers looked shockingly spry in relief last week, averaging 4.6 yards per carry, but did fumble. If Dameon Pierce recovers from his hamstring injury, it could complicate the backfield.

NYJ RB Braelon Allen ($5)

  • Allen scored twice last week and looks requisite of a big role if anything happens to Breece Hall. His usage has been too low to make him a starter, but he makes for a good handcuff for anyone with Hall.

Chiefs RBs Samaje Perine ($25) and Carson Steele ($20)

  • It looks like Isiah Pacheco will miss at least two months and maybe the whole season. I worry about the prospect of a muddy committee developing in Kansas City, particularly in two weeks when Clyde Edwards-Helaire returns. I lean toward Perine over Steele because he’s a trusted veteran and a proven pass catcher. Perine was also an excellent pass blocker while in Cincinnati (although he scored worse in Denver last year). Steele looks like he’s perfectly built for goal-line use, though, and could notch some scores. If you’re not going to start either guy in the next two weeks, before CEH potentially muddies the waters, I’d just avoid the situation.

Rams WRs Tyler Johnson ($20) and Jordan Whittington ($1)

  • Tragically, Cooper Kupp has joined Puka Nacua with a long-term injury, opening the door for Tyler Johnson, and to a lesser extent, Jordan Whittington, for some production. Last week, the battered Rams simply stalled out, and that’s a possibility too. But, Sean McVay is brilliant enough to overcome a lot of negatives, and Johnson/Whittington could be spot starters.

Cowboys WR Jalen Tolbert ($3)

  • Despite doing very little in Week 1, last week, Tolbert saw career highs in receptions and yardage, while pacing the team in targets and air yards. Brandin Cooks seems vulnerable to being usurped on the depth chart, but it’s important to note that Cooks saw almost identical playing time as Tolbert.

Chargers WR Quentin Johnston ($3)

  • Johnston’s breakout game last week came against the Panthers, so it’s got an asterisk. But, at this point, I’ll happily take any signs of life from Johnston. Johnston, Josh Palmer, and rookie Ladd McConkey are effectively tied in usage through three games.  Jim Harbaugh’s low passing volume caps likely caps his upside.

49ers WR Jauan Jennings ($1)

Patriots TE Hunter Henry ($5)

  • With Jonnu Smith gone, Hunter Henry is dominating the Patriots tight end utilization, which manifested itself into a monster box score last week.  Considering the Patriots' dearth of reliable receivers, Henry could sustain a solid level of activity in an offense that's playing better than expected. Offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt ran tight end-heavy schemes in Cleveland.