Welcome to Week 4, guillotine leaguers!  

Hey, everyone. It's Paul Charchian, Director of Guillotine Leagues at FantasyLife.com. I’m here every Tuesday offering waiver wire guidance to help you strategize your bidding. 

I’ve been immersed in guillotine leagues for five years. I’ve never seen any position struggle like tight ends this year. Annually, I’ve advocated for drafting tight ends early, to square away the position with one of the few reliable guys. This year? No tight end is reliable.  

The top seven fantasy tight ends are Dallas Goedert, Brock Bowers, Mike Gesicki, Isaiah Likely, Hunter Henry, Zach Ertz, and Cole Kmet. In almost every case, those guys had one big game.  

I know you need tight end help. I do too. But don't break the bank on guys who have proven to be second-tier tight ends. In most leagues, tight ends are going to be overpriced. Remember, the whole league is suffering at the position. That means others are in the same boat you're in. 

It’s already time to start thinking about looming bye-week issues on your roster. We’ve got some potent offenses on bye in Week 5 (Detroit, L.A. Chargers, Philadelphia, Tennessee) and if you’re affected, you’ll want to act now, a week in advance.

Next week, you’ll be battling a lot of other people with similar bye-week issues, and the cost of replacement players will be higher.

This document is in four sections: 

A reminder from last week: Before we get into bidding advice, the single most important 10 minutes you can spend this season is watching the explanation of our waiver wire system. Understanding the nuances of our waiver system will give you a massive advantage over people who don’t bother to learn it.

Also, be sure to listen to the Chop Podcast, for greater detail and conversation about the week's waiver wire decision.  And, you'll find guillotine-specific rankings at FantasyLife.com and you'll save 20% with the promo code CHOP20.

Self Evaluation

With three weeks of NFL action in the books, you should have a pretty good grip on the talent level on your roster.  You can’t bid correctly if you don’t establish your level of desperation—hopefully very little.

If your team is a legit candidate to be chopped this week, you'll need to overspend on players who can keep you alive. But before you blast open your wallet, take a look at the other rosters in your league and make sure your team really is one of the worst.

If you have short-term roster problems due to injury, your goal should be to solve the problem with a cheap replacement player to cover your roster for a few weeks.

If you roster has a long-term problem, you’ll need to be more aggressive to land a good replacement player who can sustain you for months.

Broad Bidding Strategies

I wrote this last week, and it bears repeating: There’s no single way to win a guillotine league. But I can safely say, the clearest path to a guillotine league championship is to survive until mid-season and have a lot of FAAB left. In short, save your FAAB unless absolutely necessary. Except for the truly desperate, your goal is to conserve cash.

So, how much should you spend? Here’s a broad rule of thumb:

  • Elite players: These are guys who’ll be on your roster for the rest of the year. This category of player would be first and second-round picks if drafting today. Think, Bijan Robinson, Justin Jefferson, Saquon Barkley, CeeDee Lamb, or Nico Collins. Max your bidding on elite players at $150-$200. No more, unless you’re already truly desperate.
     
  • Middle-tier players: These guys are probable starters every week, but will probably get replaced by November for better talent. $25-$50. Be careful here. Throwing down $50 twice a week will drain your funds in short order.
     
  • Lower-tier players: These are short-term helpers or depth guys for your bench. $1-$10. 

The 10 Most Chopped Players in Week 3

10. BAL TE Mark Andrews (12.8% chopped)

  • Utilization Score: 4.4/10
  • Upcoming schedule: BUF, @CIN, WAS
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $3
     
  • Note:  Andrews has posted a 0-point fantasy game, a 9-point game, and a 3-point game. Last week, he only ran six routes! Even in the Ravens' run-heavy game script last week, that's awful. The culprit seems like Isaiah Likely, but he's seen declining routes every week of the season, from 35 to 18 to 10 last week. Starting Andrews feels extraordinarily dangerous until we see consistent usage in the passing game.

9. PHI WR A.J. Brown (13% chopped)

  • Utilization Score: 9.1/10 (Just Week 1)
  • Upcoming schedule: @TB, BYE, CLE
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $35
     
  • Note: I often talk about the danger of rostering injured players, which corresponds to my modest bid recommendations on those players. Beyond the fact that injured players won't score any points, they use up a valuable roster spot that could be housed by someone who saves you from the chopping block. Hopefully, I'm wrong, but I don't expect Brown back until Week 6, after Philly's bye week. 

8. DAL WR CeeDee Lamb (13.2% chopped)

  • Utilization Score: 6.5/10
  • Upcoming schedule: @NYG, @PIT, DET
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $175
     
  • Note: Honestly, I'm shocked to see the carnage around Lamb's 10.7 fantasy-point performance. 10.7 PPR points isn't great, but normally that's enough to keep you off this list. But, hey, if he's unexpectedly available in your league, make a run for Lamb. Brandin Cooks, Jalen Tolbert, and Jake Ferguson have siphoned off more work than expected, and that could be a recurring problem for Lamb. But in totality, he's still a coveted asset for any guillotine league roster.

7. PHI QB Jalen Hurts (13.8% chopped)

  • Utilization Score: N/A
  • Upcoming schedule: @TB, BYE, CLE
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $60
     
  • Note: Despite throwing for 311 yards, Jalen Hurts is now available in 13.8% of leagues after failing to accumulate any touchdowns. This year is unique in that quarterbacks, even good ones, simply aren't producing many fantasy points. Fully half the starting quarterbacks are delivering dud fantasy games. Hurts is an elite dual-threat quarterback, which almost always creates a safe floor (except last week). The reason to show caution on Hurts is that he may be without A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith this week and then goes on bye the week after. 

6. MIA WR Tyreek Hill (13.8% chopped)

  • Utilization Score: 6.1/10
  • Upcoming schedule: @NE, BYE, @IND
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $65
     
  • Note:  Depressingly, Hill's situation deteriorated from bad to worse.  Are we seriously talking about Tim Boyle starting a game? Yikes! Tyler Huntley is an option, but he's only been with the team for eight days. If Skylar Thompson can't go, the potential for dreadful quarterbacking knocks Tyreek Hill down to a flex player this week. And then he goes on bye. So, ask yourself, how much am I willing to pay for a player I may not start for two weeks?  Further complicating matters, we've gained no further clarity on Tua Tagovailoa's timetable for return. For those who might be curious, Jaylen Waddle was the 16th most-chopped player. 

5. PIT RB Jaylen Warren (13.9% chopped)

  • Utilization Score: 3.2/10
  • Upcoming schedule: @IND, DAL, @LV
  • Charch's recommended bid amount:  $1
     
  • Note: I'm showing major caution with Warren due to his knee injury and his woeful utilization. He's averaging just 4.5 rushing attempts and 1.5 targets per game. I'd probably bid more on Cordarrelle Patterson (details below) in the event Warren and Najee Harris both miss this week's game. 

4. Det WR Jameson Williams (15% chopped)

  • Utilization Score: 7.0/10
  • Upcoming schedule: SEA, BYE, @DAL
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $20
     
  • Note: Last week, Williams returned to the low-volume, low-floor receiver we saw in 2022 and 2023.  But, with Sam LaPorta likely to miss this game, I'm optimistic that we'll see Williams bounce back with a bigger role in this Sunday's game against Seattle. Note that the Seahawks have allowed the fewest fantasy points to wide receivers so far (probably because they've faced Bo Nix, Jacoby Brissett/Drake Maye, and Skylar Thompson/Tim Boyle).  After the Seahawks game, he goes on bye, which should also affect your bidding significantly.

3. IND QB Anthony Richardson (16.1% chopped)

  • Utilization Score: NA
  • Upcoming schedule: PIT, @JAC, @TEN
  • Charch's recommended bid amount:  $25
     
  • Note: I keep hearing, “Give him time, it’s only been seven starts and five full games.”  Okay, but the passing we’re seeing is awful. Exactly when am I allowed to start worrying, because a 49% completion rate is nothing short of horrific.  On passes longer than 12 yards, Richardson’s completion rate drops to 33%. He’s dead last in completed passes, and it’s not close. The other thing I keep hearing from fantasy managers: “I don’t care about his passing, I’m here for his running.” Here’s the problem; he’s only averaging 6 designed runs a game! Just 39 rushing yards per game. And, there’s this concern too: The reigning comeback player of the year, Joe Flacco, is looming.  

2. NO WR Rashid Shaheed (16.6% chopped)

  • Utilization Score: 5.9/10
  • Upcoming schedule: @ATL, @KC, TB
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $30
     
  • Note: I'm a long-time Rashid Shaheed apologist who has delighted in his emergence this year…until now.  Shaheed's deep downfield routes mean he's going to have some games where he just doesn't connect with Derek Carr. And that's dangerous in this format, where dud games get you chopped. Still, Shaheed is experiencing far more reliable utilization than ever before, accounting for an amazing 48% of the Saints' air yards, sixth-most among all players.

1. NE RB Rhamondre Stevenson (16.7% chopped)

  • Utilization Score: 7.5/10
  • Upcoming schedule: @SF, MIA, HOU
  • Charch's recommended bid amount: $20
     
  • Note: Last Thursday, Stevenson's box score was nuked by four injuries across his offensive line and an immediately negative game script that held him to six touches. Sunday's game against the 49ers doesn't feel like a "get right" moment. Stevenson has played well, ranking fifth in broken tackle rate. But the rest of his offense can be so dysfunctional that he's prone to bad games.

Waiver Advice For “Regular” Guys

These are the caliber of guys who are popping up on “traditional league” waiver wires, but you'll also want to consider for guillotine usage. 

They're generally cheap and could provide short-term help.

Car QB Andy Dalton ($15)

  • In previous years, it was a lot easier to unearth cheap quarterback help. Not this season. Quarterback play is down markedly from previous years, and the influx of rookie passers hasn't resulted in many fantasy points, aside from Jayden Daniels. That means, there’s more demand for viable quarterbacks than usual, which is why I’m recommending $15 for Andy Dalton, a bigger price than I would have guessed before kickoff last Sunday.

Den QB Bo Nix ($1)

  • Bo Nix just played, by far, his best game. Even though he hasn't thrown a touchdown yet, his rushing has sparked him to QB20 through three weeks. He's only had eight designed runs, which makes me wonder if his rushing stats will dry up. But, perhaps even if they do, his passing will evolve well enough to make up for it.

Chi RB Roschon Johnson ($2)

  • D’Andre Swift has been awful. He’s dead last in rushing yards over expectation at negative 2.4 yards! His yards after contact is 1.7, also last among starters. On the final drive of the game, with the game on the line, Swift got benched for Johnson. Johnson hasn't distinguished himself, running for 3.8 yards per carry, but a changing of the guard could be coming to Chicago's backfield.

Pit RB Cordarrelle Patterson ($1)

  • Both Najee Harris (arm) and Jaylen Warren (knee) are ailing, creating a scenario where Patterson gets extended playing time against a Colts defense that has allowed the most rushing yards to opposing runners, including two 150-yard performances.

GB RB Emanuel Wilson ($5)

  • In all probability, Packers head coach Matt LaFleur simply wanted to give Josh Jacobs some rest last Sunday, after Jacobs’ crazy 32-carry performance the week before. But, Wilson’s uptick in usage isn’t a fluke either. He passes the eye test and some of the underlying metrics are promising, including 3.1 yards after contact and a 24% broken-tackle rate.

SF WR Jauan Jennings ($25)

  • This one is thorny. Based on his playoff performances last year and his crescendo this year, it’s become indisputable that Jauan Jennings is a really good receiver (and one of the league’s best run-blocking wideouts). But last week’s gaudy box score was clearly aided by the absence of Deebo Samuel and George Kittle. Both could come back as early as this week. Unfortunately, Brandon Aiyuk’s massive contract makes him unbenchable, which will relegate Jennings to a part-time role when Samuel returns.

Ari WR Michael Wilson ($1)

  • I’m interested in any starting wideout facing the Commanders secondary.  Wilson is Arizona’s clear No. 2 receiver with nearly the same snap count as Marvin Harrison. He was targeted nine times last week, a career-high. 

Min WR Jalen Nailor ($1)

  • Three games, three touchdowns for Jordan Addison's replacement, Jalen Nailor. Nailor’s effective play means the Vikings can afford to wait for Addison’s ankle to be fully healed before returning him to the field, which could mean Week 7, after the team’s bye. This Sunday, Packers’ ace cornerback Jaire Alexander is going to have his hands full with rival Justin Jefferson, which will leave Nailor with easier coverage.

Phi WR Jahan Dotson ($1)

  • It’s very possible that the Eagles’ top three receivers all miss this game, leaving Dotson as Jalen Hurts’ go-to wideout against a banged-up Bucs secondary.

NYJ TE Tyler Conklin ($5)

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