Jake Nagy

It’s Week 14, Guillotine Leaguers! If you’ve made it to the Top 5, let me first congratulate you. That’s no easy feat. Not over yet though – it’s time to lock in, hunker down, buckle up, etc.

We’ve reached the point in the Guillotine LeagueTM season where everyone’s rosters are mega stacked. If you’ve been saving your FAAB, it’s time to empty the clip. On guillotineleagues.com, bidding on chopped players ends after Week 14, so this is the last week to set your endgame roster, which needs at least eight elite, superstar players. Charch did a great job highlighting endgame rationales and thought processes in this week’s Waiver Wire column.

All season, we’ve identified cheap, high-floor, replacement-level options to help you keep your head. With our last set of six teams—Ravens, Broncos, Texans, Colts, Patriots, and Commanders—on bye, this will be the last week we’ll need to do so. We very much appreciate you sticking with us this season, reading these articles, and playing at guillotineleagues.com. For the last time in 2024, let’s get to it.

Quarterbacks

Last Week:

Pain.

Week 14:

Tua Tagovailoa vs. New York Jets (15.3% owned)

The Dolphins’ offense has found its groove, due in no small part to Tagovailoa's connection with our sweet Jonnu Smith. Though it may be too little too late for their playoff hopes, it’s great news for Guillotine Leaguers needing to replace Lamar Jackson, Bo Nix, and/or Jayden Daniels this week. In each of the last three weeks, Tua has eclipsed 23 fantasy points to the tune of 25.7 points per game. The casual player may still perceive the Jets as a show-stopping matchup, but you’re not the casual player. You know that the Jets have taken a step back on defense this season, especially over the last five weeks, as they’ve allowed the fifth-highest EPA per dropback.

Sam Darnold vs. Atlanta Falcons (15.3% owned)

This one goes out to Brian Johnson, our Fantasy Life Operations Coordinator and resident Darnold stan. Only four quarterbacks, including Tua, have outscored Sam Darnold over the last three weeks. In each of his last three, Darnold has eclipsed 19.60 fantasy points. Minnesota is almost entirely incapable of punching it in on the ground inside the 5, so Darnold offers the rare touchdown-boosted floor. Justin Herbert’s dud in Atlanta is likely an outlier performance; up until last week, Atlanta had allowed at least 19.9 fantasy points to opposing passers in seven straight games.

Running Backs

Last Week:

  • Start: Rico Dowdle—21.30 points, a Thanksgiving feast, and he’s a starting option against Cincy this week. Still available in over two-thirds of leagues on guillotineleagues.com.
  • Bench: James Conner—11.10 points, we’ll call that a hit in Week 13.
  • Cut: Kareem Hunt—3.50 points, buh-bye.

Week 14:

Tyrone Tracy vs. New Orleans Saints (44.4% owned)

If I had a dollar for every time I recommended Tyrone Tracy in this article, I’d have three dollars and could afford Skyy Moore on waivers … yay. I wouldn’t triple down on Tracy if I didn’t love his matchup. New Orleans’ New Boss Boost has worn off, as Kyren Williams and Blake Corum combined to average 6.3 yards per carry against this slow, beleaguered defense last week. Tracy is fairly touchdown-dependent, but I like his odds to score against a Saints defense that’s allowed at least one rushing score to an opposing back in all but one game dating back to Week 5.

Isaac Guerendo vs. Chicago Bears (0.3% owned)

Duh! Isaac Guerendo likely isn’t available at the time of this reading, but if he is, go out and get him for the rest of your FAAB. Charch broke down his rest-of-season outlook, but I think he has a particularly good matchup this week. Over the last five weeks, Chicago has allowed 18+ points to: the Cardinals’ running back conglomerate, Josh Jacobs, Aaron Jones, and the Lions’ running back conglomerate. Each of those offenses love spamming zone runs, and here comes Kyle Shanahan ready to get his fourth-round rookie with 4.33 speed out on the edge.

Wide Receivers

Last Week:

  • Start: Ladd McConkey—20.70 points, hit, and McConkey is a matchup-proof must-start coming off a 52% target share.
  • Bench: Zay Flowers—10.10 points, we’ll also call this one a hit in Week 13.
  • Cut: Deebo Samuel—4.00 points, buh-bye.

Week 14:

Jakobi Meyers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (45.6% owned)

I can maybe rationalize not wanting to start Jakobi Meyers because of his quarterback situation or something, but he should at least be on all end-game rosters. He’s consistently seeing double-digit targets and high Utilization Scores. Dwain broke down Meyers’ rest-of season outlook in the Week 14 Utilization Report, and in the absence of Nico Collins and Terry McLaurin, I’m absolutely firing him up against a Buccaneers defense that’s allowed several big games to opposing wideouts this season.

Jerry Jeudy vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (24.2% owned)

Another duh! Jerry Jeudy isn’t going to score 40.5 points each week, but even throwing that outlier out, Jeudy is averaging almost 17 fantasy points per game with Jameis Winston under center. You need roughly 16 points per player to advance at this point in the season, so why not fire up Jeudy against a Steelers secondary in which the Bengals just poked all kinds of holes? Each of the three Cincy wideouts to garner a target scored a touchdown, and Jeudy posted 6 catches for 85 yards on this defense just a couple weeks ago in much less favorable conditions.

Jordan Addison vs. Atlanta Falcons (19.8% owned)

See Darnold, Sam. Over his last three games, Jordan Addison has put together his most consistent stretch of play this season, seeing at least 6 targets in each game and finding pay dirt in two of three. During that same stretch, Atlanta has allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts. The Falcons just shut down the Chargers’ secondary pass catchers, but none of them boast the talent Addison does—Remember when they picked Quentin Johnston over Addison? Addison always carries the No. 2 wideout risk of being phased out of the game plan, but you could do much worse for a bye week fill-in.

Tight Ends

None of the top-8 tight ends in terms of rostership on guillotineleauges.com are on bye this week, so start your top-8 tight end that you should have by now. If at this point, you’re needing to pivot from Mark Andrews, Hunter Henry, or Zach Ertz, I don’t know how you managed to get here, but I’m impressed. George Kittle was the No. 2 most-chopped player this past week; go grab him and quit worrying about whether to start Tucker Kraft or Jake Ferguson.