Welcome back to the guillotine league mailbag! This week we will look at a pair of quarterbacks trending in opposite directions, implications of star wide receiver trades, strategies at the opposite ends of the budget spectrum as well as thoughts on last week’s most chopped players. 

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Guillotine League Week 10 Strategy

Is Patrick Mahomes back?

Patrick Mahomes saw season-highs across the board (completions, attempts, completion percentage, yards, touchdowns) last week in his waterlogged matchup with Tampa’s cellar-dwelling pass defense. Amazingly, it was his first game this season with over 30 pass completions and 40 attempts, but his attempts and completions have risen in three straight games.

Travis Kelce and, now, DeAndre Hopkins have settled in to give him reliable targets amid early-season injuries. Kareem Hunt offering a reliable rushing attack has benefited Mahomes as well. 

I would pump the brakes for the next two weeks, though. Mahomes has matchups with the Broncos and Bills, teams allowing the sixth-fewest and ninth-fewest points to opposing quarterbacks, respectively. But, if you can keep him rostered, he has lollipop matchups with the Panthers (fourth-most points allowed) and Raiders (ninth-most) in the following weeks leading up to the playoffs. 

Like last week with Mahomes, there will be plenty of streaming options at quarterback with only nine teams left. Brock Purdy against the Buccaneers (second-most points allowed to opposing quarter backs) and Sam Darnold against the Jaguars (most allowed) should be cheap streaming options that can get you through the week. 

I’ll throw Matthew Stafford in here as a great streaming option, too. As we discussed last week, don’t be afraid of Miami’s third-best quarterback defense on paper. That was heavily inflated and influenced by them getting blown out in their games without Tua Tagovailoa, leading teams to run the ball more. 

The Dolphins' last two games have been much more competitive shootouts with Josh Allen and Kyler Murray averaging 271 passing yards and 2.5 passing scores. Stafford has looked excellent since getting Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua back, averaging 280 passing yards and three scores per game in two victories since the duo returned. In fact, Stafford has at least 279 passing yards in all three games that Nacua and Kupp played. 

Keep Mahomes on your roster, but Purdy, Darnold, and Stafford can all be confidently streamed and should cost less than $10.

Can I trust C.J. Stroud?

C.J. Stroud is feeling the losses of Nico Collins and now Stefon Diggs. He has completed less than half of his passes in two of the last three weeks and only has a single passing score over that span. The receiver injuries are a big part of it, but Joe Mixon’s success on the ground is a huge factor. 

Similar to Mahomes, it will get tougher before it gets easier — much easier — for Stroud. He gets a date with a Lions team (who just beefed up their defensive front by trading for Za’Darius Smith) allowing the eighth-fewest points to opposing quarterbacks. You’ll be better off with one of the streaming options discussed above for this week.

However, if you can make it through this week, Stroud has an excellent run of positive matchups. After the Lions, Stroud gets the Cowboys (fifth-most points allowed), Titans, Jaguars (most allowed), and Dolphins. Nico Collins should be returning for the Cowboys matchup as well, so go get Stroud this week while he will be at his cheapest and stream a positive matchup in the meantime. 

What are your reads on the star receivers who have been traded and their impacts on the other pass catchers on their new teams?

It seems like mid-season star receiver trades never really yield better individual fantasy results compared to their original situation. We might have a couple this season that will buck that trend and a few that will reinforce it.

DeAndre Hopkins certainly made a splash in his second game with the Chiefs, leading all receivers with nine targets, eight receptions, and three end zone targets with two scores. After injuries to Rashee Rice, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Skyy Moore, Hopkins is only competing with the likes of Justin Watson and Mecole Hardman in the receiver room. Travis Kelce’s mid-season emergence will also serve to take some attention off of Hopkins, so I love Hopkins (and Kelce) going forward. I would try to snag Hopkins for $75 this week if he’s available. 

After connecting on only seven of 15 targets in the first two games of his reunion with Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams finally had a solid game last week against the Texans, leading the team in targets and receiving yards despite missing a quarter dealing with a possible concussion. Garrett Wilson got all the headlines from that game, but ironically his two touchdowns came while Adams was sidelined. I still think having both on the field at the same time will benefit both in the long run, and I like both receivers going forward as they make a late playoff push. They have dynamite matchups upcoming against the Cardinals, Colts, and Seahawks, so keep both in your lineups. I would spend up to $100 on each.

Amari Cooper and Dionte Johnson have dealt with injuries and find themselves in crowded skill groups in high-powered offenses. While it could be argued that both Hopkins and Adams remain No. 1 options on their new teams, Cooper and Johnson clearly find themselves in diminished roles. 

Whereas Zay Flowers has emerged as a true No. 1 receiver despite Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson taking up a big chunk of the touches on the ground. Plus, the midseason surges from Rashod Bateman and Mark Andrews make Johnson difficult to trust this late in the season — he wasn’t even targeted in his first game. At this point in the season, Flowers is the only pass catcher for the Ravens I want on my team.

Amari Cooper is in a similar boat. Josh Allen has been spreading the ball out, with no receiver seeing more than six targets per game. Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, and Dalton Kincaid have put up modest numbers, but their floors are becoming a bit too low this late into the season. If Cooper can come close to the volume Stefon Diggs saw from Josh Allen, that will be a different story, but with Cooper dealing with an injury, you can’t trust him with only nine teams remaining. 

I still haven’t spent any of my free agent budget. What should my strategy be going forward?

If that’s the case, your team is probably pretty good! Keep holding off if you can, but start targeting end-game players: evergreen types with consistently high floors. Players like Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, Cooper Kupp, George Kittle, Travis Kelce, and Cade Otton. (Yes, Cade Otton, especially as long as Mike Evans is out). 

You’ll notice that names like Jayden Daniels, Baker Mayfield, Alvin Kamara, and CeeDee Lamb aren’t on this list. These players are all still great options week to week, but I'm favoring these players less in the long run due to playing style, rookie status, incompetence at quarterback, or falling out of the playoff race soon.

Be vigilant. Having the most money obviously means that you can always get whatever player you are targeting. Knowing your opponent’s roster makeup and budgets gives you the opportunity to also get those players at a discount. 

If you are on the other end of the spectrum and have no budget, you can still be successful if you are also vigilant. Your only option to improve your team will be after the bidding periods or successfully placing zero-dollar bids. With only nine teams left, there will be good, startable players you can add for free. Pay attention to which players are being dropped by those spending money. There will always be positive matchups to exploit. 

We already talked about quarterback matchups to exploit. For running backs, go grab a less-sexy player going up against the Panthers, Cowboys, or Patriots. For receivers, go against the Ravens, Vikings, or Browns. For tight ends, plug and play even a Madden Create-A-Player if he plays tight end against the Chiefs. 

Last Week's Most-Chopped Players

What are your thoughts on last week’s most chopped players?

Last week’s most chopped players were A.J. Brown, Puka Nacua, Kyler Murray, Marvin Harrison, Chris Olave, Kyren Williams, Jonathan Taylor, Ja’Marr Chase, Brian Robinson, and Breece Hall. Go read Paul Charchian’s article on bidding strategy for them. 

Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison cruised to a blowout victory, but both being here is a testament of the Bears’ legit pass defense. They are allowing the fewest points to opposing quarterbacks and the second-fewest to opposing wide receivers. Be cautious when starting fringe guys against Chicago. 

The same thing applies to Jonathan Taylor. He struggled against a Vikings team that is allowing the fourth-fewest points to opposing running backs. Matchups matter this late into the season.

Two of Kyren Williams’ worst games on the year have unsurprisingly come in games where Stafford had both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. He’s still an elite week-to-week starter with a great floor, but I’m not sure he is in the end-game plans. 

Speaking of Puka, I doubt he will be punching helmets anymore this season. He and Kupp are being targeted like crazy since both have been healthy, so I want them on my team as the Rams make a playoff push.