Welcome back to the guillotine league mailbag! With more than half of your league eliminated, rosters are becoming more stacked every week. Let's talk about the best way to look ahead in guillotine leagues, along with last week's most-chopped players. 

Guillotine League Week 11 Strategy

What do you make of the 49ers the rest of the way?

The Week 9 bye week felt like a true inflection point for the 49ers for the remainder of the season, primarily due to the return of Christian McCaffrey. As we say, a rising tide lifts all boats, and that was the case for several 49ers last week.

Brock Purdy delivered in a smash spot and has now posted 23 or more points in three of his last four. That stretch includes a game against Seattle, which is his next opponent and a spot where you can feel good about starting him. Beyond that, there aren’t a ton of great matchups the rest of the way. Despite how well he’s played, I don’t see Purdy as an endgame starter.

Christian McCaffrey immediately returned to an 89% snap share, 68% rush share, 79% route participation, and 21% target share. Yeah, he’s locked into your starting lineup the rest of the season. He didn’t look as explosive as he normally does, but if he manages to get healthier as the season goes on, he’s a league winner.

For me, the story of the day was Jauan Jennings, who posted seven receptions for 93 yards on 11 targets in the Brandon Aiyuk role. Kyle Shanahan said he’s earned that role the rest of the year, and deservedly so. Similar to Purdy, there aren’t a ton of great matchups for Jennings and this wide receiver group the rest of the way, but if his Utilization Score of 8.6 keeps up, he’s an endgame player. 

I’m not out on Deebo Samuel just yet, but he should be hanging out on benches in these negative matchups until he proves he’s fully healthy. Samuel is averaging a pitiful 3.1 yards per carry, his lowest since an injury-riddled 2020 campaign. Ricky Pearsall had a nice 46-yard catch-and-run touchdown; he’s worth keeping on your bench the next couple weeks in case he emerges as the top target, but he feels too dart-throwy in starting lineups for my taste at this stage of the season.

George Kittle is George Kittle. We know George Kittle. We love George Kittle. We are going to start George Kittle every week and enjoy watching him block his ass off and then catch sick touchdowns in the corner of the end zone as a reward.

There was a touchdown drought Sunday afternoon. How do I navigate the desert to ensure I don’t get chopped?

Yep, I felt it too. There were only 38 touchdowns scored across all 10 Sunday afternoon games this past weekend. Brutal. Touchdowns are our most valuable method of scoring, but they’re also the flukiest, least predictable, and most susceptible to regression, be it negative or positive. Not to sound like hooded guy on the bell curve meme, but we need to lean toward the players on the teams scoring the most touchdowns. Those are:

  1. Ravens – 3.90 touchdowns per game
  2. Lions – 3.88
  3. Bills – 3.40
  4. Buccaneers – 3.30
  5. Bengals – 3.30

Derrick Henry is a lock for a touchdown every week, and Lamar Jackson is going to account for the rest with his arm or legs. David Montgomery isn’t far behind Henry in terms of RBs likely to find paydirt, and Amon-Ra St. Brown has scored in seven consecutive games. Josh Allen and James Cook are the goal line rushers for the Bills and can score multiple times any given week. Baker Mayfield is generating touchdowns for his entire offense. And we just saw what Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase are capable of. You have to get at least some of these players on your endgame roster, not just for the floor, but the multi-TD ceiling as well.

Conversely, proceed with trepidation with the following low-scoring offenses:

  1. Dolphins – 1.56 touchdowns per game
  2. Giants – 1.60
  3. Patriots – 1.60
  4. Browns – 1.67
  5. Cowboys – 1.78

I’m feeling better about the Dolphins with Tua Tagovailoa back, but the scoring had generally funneled toward De’Von Achane and the tight ends up until last week, leaving little on the bone for Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Tyrone Tracy, Malik Nabers, Cedric Tillman, David Njoku, and CeeDee Lamb are all hamstrung by their quarterback situations. There’s really not much to discuss about New England — if there’s a Patriot on your roster at this point, drop him.

Last Week's Most-Chopped Players

What are your thoughts on last week’s most chopped players?

  1. Jayden Daniels
  2. Saquon Barkley
  3. DeVonta Smith
  4. Justin Jefferson
  5. CeeDee Lamb
  6. Zay Flowers
  7. Garrett Wilson
  8. D’Andre Swift
  9. De’Von Achane
  10. Nico Collins

Definitely go check out Charch’s weekly FAAB advice column for specific bidding recommendations. Generally, this is an extremely strong crop of players. I see Jayden Daniels, Saquon Barkley, Justin Jefferson, De’Von Achane, and Nico Collins as surefire endgame starters and worthy of large bids. Daniels and Collins both have byes coming up, so factor that into your bidding. Collins, especially, needs to be approached with caution. I imagine he's on this list because a good amount of Guillotine Leaguers left him in their lineups with no backup plan when he was ultimately ruled out ahead of Sunday night. 

I’m personally not worried about Jefferson; his talent and ecosystem are so far in his favor that he still managed 9 points amidst the worst possible Sam Darnold game. The same goes for Barkley and Achane — both are supremely talented players in league-winning roles that had blip-on-the-radar down games.

DeVonta Smith has been very consistent this year; this was only his second game under 14.90 points. A tough matchup against a suddenly stout Commanders secondary is up next, but I like his stretch afterwards: Rams-Ravens-Panthers. CeeDee Lamb and the rest of the Cowboys offense might be dead for the rest of the season. He’s still worth an add, but he’s not worthy of a monster bid. 

The same could be said about Garrett Wilson and the Jets. Wilson had been playing well, but you have to wonder if the Jets will shut everyone down toward the end of the season with them so obviously out of contention. I love Zay Flowers the football player, but Zay Flowers the Guillotine League asset does not hold much value for me right now. He has three straight tough matchups and then a bye coming up. Lastly, D’Andre Swift is worth a small bid in hopes things improve without Shane Waldron at the helm.