Welcome back to the guillotine league mailbag! Heading into Week 12, rosters are becoming more stacked every week. Let's talk about the best way to look ahead in guillotine leagues, along with last week's most-chopped players. 

Guillotine League Week 12 Strategy

Which players do you think will be the most rostered on championship teams?

We’ve talked a lot about end-game players here at guillotine leagues over the last few weeks. These are players who are going to be fixtures in your starting lineups when we get down to four, three, and two teams remaining. They are going to carry you to the championship. 

These are true difference-makers, but there are levels to this. Each year, there are a handful of players that break fantasy football, and you need at least one, ideally two or three, on your team if you want to take home the championship. Aces, trump cards, Exodias — whatever you want to call them. (I like aces, but since we’re talking guillotine leagues, let’s replace ‘c’ with ‘x’ and go with axes.) 

These players have a combination of floor and ceiling that stand above even their lofty peers and will help you chop your league mates.

Below, I’ll call out who I think the end-game players are at each position (in no particular order), specifically highlighting the axes. We’re down to seven teams left, and if you play on guillotineleagues.com, there are only three weeks of open, unrestricted bidding left. If you’ve been saving your money and any of these axes hit the waiver wire, you have to go get them.

End Game Quarterbacks:

  • Lamar Jackson – Axe
  • Jalen Hurts – Axe
  • Josh Allen
  • Joe Burrow

One of these things is not like the other. Joe Burrow can’t match the rushing floor nor upside the other three offer. Lamar Jackson will probably be chopped from many a team during his Week 14 bye and won’t be able to be scooped up again. Hurts has a very favorable schedule down the stretch, especially compared to Josh Allen.

Of these four, I predict Jalen Hurts will be the most rostered quarterback on Guillotine League championship teams.

End Game Running Backs:

  • Joe Mixon – Axe
  • De’Von Achane – Axe
  • Alvin Kamara – Axe
  • Bijan Robinson – Axe
  • Saquon Barkley
  • Breece Hall
  • Jahmyr Gibbs
  • David Montgomery
  • Josh Jacobs
  • James Cook
  • Kenneth Walker
  • Derrick Henry
  • Christian McCaffrey
  • Kyren Williams 

I mean, what do you want me to do? Running back is absolutely stacked this year. I imagine the majority of guillotine league rosters will be starting two running backs in their flex spots. I even left off some worthy honorable mentions: Chase Brown, JK Dobbins, Jonathan Taylor, and James Conner, to name a few. 

It was tough, but I identified four axes from this group, all because of their receiving floor and upside, with the exception of Joe Mixon, whose multi-touchdown upside is immense. Combined with their workhorse status and strength of schedule the rest of the way, they’re league-winners.

I predict Bijan Robinson will be the most rostered running back on Guillotine League championship teams. He looked awesome again before the Broncos game got out of hand and finishes the season with Raiders-Giants-Commanders. He’s on bye this week, so there’s a better than usual chance he’s on waivers next week.

End Game Wide Receivers:

  • Amon-Ra St. Brown – Axe
  • Puka Nacua – Axe
  • Ja’Marr Chase – Axe
  • Cooper Kupp
  • Justin Jefferson
  • CeeDee Lamb
  • Tyreek Hill
  • A.J. Brown
  • Malik Nabers
  • George Pickens
  • Nico Collins
  • Drake London

Honorable mentions include Terry McLaurin, DK Metcalf, Mike Evans (remember him?), and suddenly Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Jauan Jennings. This was a tougher group to put together, as many of them have flaws and inconsistencies, except for our three axes (to an extent). Amon-Ra St. Brown may be a little too touchdown-dependent, and Puka Nacua may be made of glass. Ja’Marr Chase, though — he’s perfect.

I predict Ja’Marr Chase will be the most rostered wide receiver on Guillotine League championship teams. He has the perfect combination of elite quarterbacking, touchdown upside, and a horrendous defense that will keep the Bengals throwing.

End Game Tight Ends:

  • Travis Kelce – Axe
  • Brock Bowers – Axe
  • George Kittle
  • Trey McBride

You have to have one of these four if you’re going to win your Guillotine League championship. It’s that simple. As usual, tight end is where the greatest positional advantages can be found. Brock Bowers and Travis Kelce are our axes, and this was my toughest most-rostered championship prediction. As a logical, thinking man, I lean Kelce because he has the far superior quarterback. But the “that boy nice” watcher in me can’t help but love Bowers.

Their schedules are both very favorable down the stretch (Bowers has the slight advantage), so you know what, I predict Brock Bowers will be the most rostered tight end on guillotine league championship teams.

Are there any sabotage drop candidates as we approach the last three weeks of bidding?

First, let me explain the conditions for a sabotage drop:

  • Player must be highly coveted; name value holds weight here. Bo Nix is playing very well but isn’t going to command big money on the waiver wire.
  • Player must either be already playing poorly or is likely to underperform over the next handful of games.

It’s very risky — frankly, it takes some brass balls — but it can make a difference. The goal is to hurt your opponents twofold: 1) they blow a good chunk of their FAAB budget; and 2) they blow it on an underperforming player that they’ll start, thus getting them chopped. It’s a very specific set of circumstances, but I think the following players are potential sabotage drop candidates:

  • QB Jayden Daniels — the Kliff Kingsbury second half experience is here, and one of your league mates still may think Daniels has the upside he had pre-injury and pre-Kliff cliff.
  • RB Christian McCaffrey — did I just identify him as an endgame player? Yes, I did. But he’s clearly not healthy and the 49ers’ offense as a whole is clearly not the same. Your league mates absolutely will spend big on him, and he could be due for some duds.
  • WR CeeDee Lamb — 2023’s RB1 and WR1 are both sabotage drop candidates. This one’s self-explanatory. Cooper Rush and Trey Lance are bad.
  • WR Garrett Wilson — I’m betting Aaron Rodgers does not finish the season.

Last Week's Most-Chopped Players

What are your thoughts on last week’s most chopped players?

  1. Terry McLaurin
  2. Garrett Wilson
  3. Jonathan Taylor
  4. Aaron Jones
  5. Travis Kelce
  6. Derrick Henry
  7. Kyren Williams
  8. Lamar Jackson
  9. Bijan Robinson
  10. Deebo Samuel

I talked about or mentioned Terry McLaurin, Jonathan Taylor, Travis Kelce, Derrick Henry, Kyren Williams, Lamar Jackson, and Bijan Robinson in some manner above. I think they’re all end game players, but obviously not without flaws — otherwise they wouldn’t be on this list. I’d especially spend big on Kelce, Jackson, and Robinson.

It gets a little trickier with the rest. Garrett Wilson is a sabotage drop candidate in my opinion. The Vikings’ offense, and Aaron Jones in particular, aren’t operating at a level where I’m comfortable calling him an end-game player right now. Sam Darnold has been erratic, and Jones is getting vultured by Cam Akers, possibly due to lingering injury concerns. 

That leaves us with Deebo Samuel. In last week’s mailbag, I called out Samuel as a player you cannot feel good about starting until he proves he is fully healthy. At this point, he could be fourth in line for touches behind Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, and Jauan Jennings. I’m not spending big on Samuel.