Welcome back to the guillotine league mailbag! This week we will take a look at some end-game players who had dud games last week, players who should no longer be started under any circumstances, matchups to avoid down the stretch, and thoughts on last week’s most chopped players. 

Do you have a guillotine league-related question? Tag @CartisParks_FL on X, and you might see your question answered!

Guillotine League Week 13 Strategy

I nearly got chopped with Justin Jefferson, Joe Mixon, and Christian McCaffrey on my roster. Are those guys still set and forget, or should I be concerned?

Jefferson, Mixon, and CMC were the most, sixth-most, and seventh-most chopped players last week. I’ve touted these players as “end game” players the last several mailbags, but they led to a lot of eliminations last week. 

Jefferson has now gone three straight games failing to eclipse 100 receiving yards and five straight games without a score, a period over which his receptions have also declined in each game. He gave a surprisingly mature answer (by superstar standards) when asked about his lack of production as his decline has bittersweetly coincided with a four-game winning streak and Sam Darnold bouncing back from a midseason lull. 

The emergence of Jordan Addison and the return of TJ Hockenson have taken some attention away from Jefferson, so I still want him in my lineup. The Vikings have three straight home games coming up and are still in the mix for a high playoff seed, so I expect their games to remain competitive. They also have only one more matchup against a team in the top 10 at limiting points to opposing wide receivers. That’s Week 15 against the Bears, and I have a hard time seeing them limiting Jefferson to only two receptions again. Keep him in your lineups, and if he’s available, I’d splurge on him if you have the funds.

The Texans scored 27 points against the Titans’ doormat of a defense, and Joe Mixon somehow managed a scoreless 45 yards — albeit on a solid 19 touches. He was still the only Texan running back to touch the ball on offense. 

There’s some good and bad for Mixon upcoming. The good is he has matchups with Jacksonville and Miami, teams allowing the second-most and 12th-most points to opposing running backs. The bad is that he still has his bye week between those matchups, and he closes his season with a brutal schedule at the Chiefs and versus the Ravens, teams allowing the least and seventh-least points to opposing running backs, respectively. Alas, survival is still the name of the game, and Mixon will help you the next couple weeks. 

McCaffrey had a solid 68 total yards on 14 touches last week against Green Bay. That won’t quite cut it with only six teams left, and I expect his ceiling to be lowered as long as Brock Purdy remains sidelined. He has a favorable upcoming schedule with each of his next four matchups in the top 13 of points allowed to opposing running backs. However, if you are so lucky to make it to the championship game, he has a matchup with the Lions in Week 17. They allow the third-fewest points to opposing running backs, and if the 49ers are out of playoff contention by that point, it's likely McCaffrey would be limited or would not play at all. I would still pony up for him if I have the funds to get through to the final four. 

With only six teams left, which players should I be avoiding at all costs?

There’s a reason standard fantasy leagues operate with 10 to 12 teams and not six. With six, every team is stacked with great players. Think of it this way: If you have two running back spots and two flex spots, then every team can start four starting running backs, and there would still be eight starters leftover on the bench or unowned! 

Now, since your competition will be better than ever down the stretch, there are some players that, at this point, should not be deployed for any reason. 

Whether due to injuries, committee usage, being outside of the playoffs, matchups, or volatility, these are the players I am avoiding the rest of the season: Brock Purdy, Jared Goff, C.J. Stroud, Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, Justin Herbert, Kirk Cousins, Sam Darnold, D’Andre Swift, J.K. Dobbins, Kareem Hunt, Brian Robinson Jr., Rhamondre Stevenson, Chuba Hubbard, any of the Buccaneers backs, any of the Steelers backs, Nick Chubb, any of the Jaguars backs, any of the Broncos backs, any 49er receiver not named George Kittle as long as Purdy is out, Davante Adams, George Pickens, DeVonta Smith, any of the Bears receivers, any of the Packers receivers, any of the Colts receivers, any of the Chiefs receivers not named Kelce, any of the Bills receivers, Sam LaPorta, David Njoku, Kyle Pitts, T.J. Hockenson, and Dallas Goedert. 

What matchups should I be avoiding down the stretch?

If you are strapped for budget and can’t avoid starting some of the aforementioned players, at least be cognizant of the matchups. For example, the average team is allowing 18.5 points per game to opposing quarterbacks. The Steelers, Bears, and Lions all surrender less than 14 points per game to the position, so avoid starting your non-superstars in those matchups. On the other end of the spectrum, the Bengals, Buccaneers, and Jaguars are all allowing over 23 points per game to opposing quarterbacks, so you can get away with a less sexy player in those matchups.

Similarly for running backs, avoid the Chiefs, Vikings, and Lions, and hunt the Cowboys, Jaguars, and Panthers. For wide receivers, avoid the Dolphins, Broncos, and Titans, and exploit the Jaguars, Vikings, and Ravens. 

For tight ends, don’t overthink it and keep starting your studs. You shouldn’t be rostering more than one tight end that this point, but if you can’t get your hands on Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, Cade Otton, or Mark Andrews, then try hunting a matchup against the Panthers, Bengals, or Chiefs.

Last Week's Most-Chopped Players

What are your thoughts on last week’s most chopped players?

With six teams on bye and several studs underachieving, I will expand this list to the top 20 this week. There are a lot of great end game players here. Go read Paul Charchian’s article for bidding strategies. 

The top 20 chopped players last week were Justin Jefferson, Brian Robinson, Jonathan Taylor, Brock Bowers, Jalen Hurts, Joe Mixon, Christin McCaffrey, Rhamondre Stevenson, Cade Otton, George Pickens, James Conner, Ja’Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Tyreek Hill, Deebo Samuel, Kyren Williams, Bijan Robinson, David Njoku, DK Metcalf, and Alvin Kamara.

If you’ve been frugal and have a lot of budget left, or even more budget left than the rest of your opponents, now is the time to splurge. There are only three bidding periods left, and your money won’t do you any good once you enter the final four!

We’ve talked about Jefferson, Mixon, and CMC, but now is the time to splurge for Ja’Marr Chase, Alvin Kamara, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Jalen Hurts as well. These players are not only high-floor/high ceiling players, but their teams are all still in playoff contention and will likely be playing throughout the end of the year. 

If you need a tight end, I would prioritize Bowers then Otton then Njoku. Bowers had 9-71-0 in Aidan O’Connell’s only start this season, and he’s got a matchup with the Chiefs this week.

The Colts somehow find themselves only two games out of the division with the Texans stumbling, but Jonathan Taylor has failed to eclipse 57 rushing yards and 3.2 yards per carry in three of his last four games, a period over which he is scoreless. That was against a brutal running back schedule, but he has matchups with the Patriots, Titans, and Giants upcoming, so he should bounce back down the stretch especially if they remain in the playoff hunt. Go get him at least for next week’s Patriots matchup; they allow the ninth-most points to opposing running backs. 

I’m not crazy about James Conner, Kyren Williams, DK Metcalf, and even Bijan Robinson, but with so many good players available, you should still try and sneak in some cheap bids while others are likely focused on the superstars.