Welcome back to the guillotine league mailbag! This week we will examine some stud quarterbacks’ pass catching situations, bye week replacements for QBs and tight ends, overlooked wide receivers and thoughts on last week’s most chopped players.  

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Guillotine League Week 5 Strategy

With Rashee Rice likely out for the season, what do you make of the Chiefs’ pass catchers?

Before Rice’s injury, he had a whopping 34% target share from Patrick Mahomes. After the injury, Travis Kelce’s nine targets (31% share) led the team against the Chargers — no other Chief saw more than four targets. With his two most reliable offensive weapons injured, Kelce seems primed for return to elite production, especially considering the tight end landscape. 

It is tough to trust any other Chiefs pass catcher considering Xavier Worthy, the third-most targeted Chief after Rice and Kelce, has seen fewer than four targets per game. Worthy’s big-play ability will make him startable if you are confident in the floor of your other players, but he should not be overly relied upon. If Kelce is available to pick up, I would spend up to $150 on him. 

What do you make of the Bills’ pass catchers so far?

Five players have double-digit targets from Josh Allen so far: Khalil Shakir (19), Dalton Kincaid (18), Mack Hollins (11), Keon Coleman (11) and James Cook (10). 

I would steer clear of both Hollins, who has somehow hauled in only four of his 11 targets, and Coleman, who has struggled with drops. 

Shakir, however, can be started with confidence. He has caught 18 of his 19 targets and is on pace for a 77-978-9 line over the full season. For comparison, Stefon Diggs had a 107-1,183-8 line as Allen’s favorite target last year. I’m not saying Shakir will reach Diggs’ peak, but he could come close and has proven to have a great floor. If Shakir is somehow available, you can probably snag him for under $75. 

You can set and forget Kincaid. Although he’s only 12th in targets among tight ends, his targets and receiving output have increased in each game so far. 

Can I trust any pass catcher for the Ravens?

Let’s start off with a blind resume comparison. Player A has put up 17-158-1 on 27 targets. Player B has a 16-161-1 line on 17 targets. Player A is Zay Flowers. Player B is career understudy Justice Hill. The other two pass catchers with double-digit targets from Lamar Jackson are Isaiah Likely and Rashod Bateman, both of whom have had one big game so far. Despite having an overwhelming lead in targets, Flowers has only had one big game so far.

Amazingly, Hill is sixth among all running backs in targets and third in receiving yards. He has averaged over 11 fantasy points per game despite seeing only 7.5 touches per game. That kind of volume will eventually cost you in guillotine leagues, but with over 12 teams left, he can certainly be relied upon at this point in the season. If he’s available, you should be able to get him for under $25. 

Keep Flowers in your lineups, too, but I wouldn’t trust any other pass catchers. And, no, don’t even think about Mark Andrews. If you are still alive and he’s on your roster, you can drop him. You might get a chump to waste some FAAB on him.

Week 5 Bye Week Streamers

I need a bye-week replacement for Dallas Goedert this week. Whom should I target?

Streaming tight ends is a fine strategy this early in the season for guillotine leagues, but if you need a replacement for Dallas Goedert or Sam LaPorta during their byes, just hunt positive matchups. 

The Chiefs did pretty well at limiting *checks notes* Will Dissly and Hayden Hurst of the Chargers last week, but they are still giving up league-highs of eight receptions and 91 yards to tight ends per game. The Saints will get the Chiefs this week, and their tight ends should have their best matchup yet. With Taysom Hill banged up, Derek Carr threw a season-high 36 passes last week. Juwan Johnson has gotten off to a slow start, but he should be looking at a modest floor this week. You probably shouldn’t have to spend any money to grab him, either. Foster Moreau is in the mix as well, but he has only one reception over the last three games. Lean Johnson. 

The Ravens allow the second-most receiving yards to opposing tight ends, so I like Mike Gesicki this week. He should be available after last week’s -9 yard effort. Despite that, he’s still 10th among tight ends in targets — I expect Joe Burrow will need to throw more against the Ravens than he did against the Panthers. Don’t break the bank for him, though; I wouldn’t spend more than $30 (which should be more than enough to get him). 

What about a good quarterback streamer for a bye week?

Quarterbacks and tight ends are the most vulnerable to bye weeks because you likely only have one rostered. If you need a replacement for Jalen Hurts, Justin Herbert or Jared Goff (or technically Will Levis), just hunt a positive matchup.

The Panthers are allowing the second-most passing touchdowns per game to opposing quarterbacks (2.2). Caleb Williams has seen his completion percentage increase in each game this year and has three passing scores in his last two games, so he is certainly worth a look this week. 

The Vikings have been racing out to big leads against everyone, causing their opponents to play catch-up and throw the ball… a lot. Minnesota is allowing a league-high 297 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks. For comparison, this year’s leading passers Geno Smith (295 yards per game) and Brock Purdy (283) don’t even average that much. Aaron Rodgers gets the Vikings this week (in London), and despite last week’s clunker against the Broncos (in bad weather to be fair), he’s seen his passing attempts increase each week this season, topping out at 42 last week. Don’t be afraid to get him in your lineup this week. 

Why is nobody talking about Wan’Dale Robinson?

Wan’Dale Robinson has a single touchdown and is 37th in receiving yards among wide receivers. That’s why. You should hope people remain in the dark because he is also fifth in targets and receptions. That’s right: Daniel Jones has two receivers in the top five in receptions. 

Robinson should only get better as teams focus more and more on Malik Nabers. In standard guillotine league scoring (full PPR), Robinson is scoring on par with Khalil Shakir, Chris Olave and Terry McLaurin. At this point in the season, he’s got a great floor. I would spend up to $75 on him if he’s available. 

Jaxon Smith-Njigba fits a similar profile. He is 23rd in receiving yards and has zero touchdowns, but he is also 13th in targets and seventh in receptions among wide receivers. He’s a little more volatile, as he has two games with over 12 targets and two games with three or fewer. Still, with Geno Smith leading the league in passing yards and attempts, JSN can still be relied upon at this point in the season. I would spend up to $50 if he’s available. 

Last Week's Most-Chopped Players

What are your thoughts on last week’s most chopped players?

Last week’s most chopped players were Rashee Rice, Breece Hall, Josh Allen, Zay Flowers, De’Von Achane, James Cook, Kyle Pitts, DeVonta Smith, Devin Singletary, Rome Odunze and Kyler Murray. Go read Paul Charcian’s article about bidding strategies for this lot. 

Josh Allen and Kyler Murray (who put up a shocking dud against a Commander’s team allowing the most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks) being on this list prove that there are no golden tickets in guillotine leagues. Don’t get too cozy relying on one player to get you through each week, especially as teams are getting better and better. Keep hunting high floors and good matchups.

In a similar vein, Breece Hall and De’Von Achane are the two most-targeted running backs, so seeing them on this list proves you can’t get by with just one or two big names. Poor quarterback play needs to be taken into account, so keep your matchups in mind, especially for your Tua-less Dolphins. 

Kyle Pitts is entering Mark Andrews territory, so don’t keep starting just the name. Half of his receiving yards on the year have come on one play.