Welcome back to the guillotine league mailbag! This week we are looking at strategy in the wake of rampant injury and thoughts on last week’s most chopped players. 

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Guillotine League Week 8 Strategy

What do I do with Jayden Daniels?

Thanks to leaving in the first quarter in a dynamite matchup against the lowly Panthers, Jayden Daniels was the most chopped player last week; over 22% of rosters with Daniels were eliminated. There are only 11 teams left, and if you managed to survive with Daniels, I’ll assume you aren’t also holding onto Lamar Jackson, Baker Mayfield, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Kyler Murray, Geno Smith, Brock Purty, Jalen Hurts, C.J. Stroud, Jared Goff, or Jordan Love (the top 11 scoring quarterbacks sans Justin Fields).  

The shortest and likely cheapest answer is also the simplest: Marcus Mariota. Last week, his statistical profile was eerily similar to Daniels’ with a 78% completion percentage and double-digit rushing attempts. Yes, he came into the game with a double-digit lead and was playing the aforementioned Panthers’ doormat of a defense, but it appears he can handle Kliff Kingsbury’s offensive scheme, which allowed Daniels to flourish. 

Things will be much tougher this week against a Bears team allowing the second-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, allowing only 202 passing yards (ninth-fewest), 0.7 passing touchdowns (second-fewest), and, perhaps most salient to Mariota, 14 rushing yards and zero rushing scores to the position. Mariota should be able to be snagged for $10 or less. 

Other good streaming options at quarterback this week include Kirk Cousins against a Buccaneers team allowing the fourth-most passing yards and ninth-most passing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks. I mean, look what Lamar Jackson just did to them and what Cousins himself did a few weeks ago. 

If your options are super limited, I would also give Jameis Winston a shot. He gets a Ravens team that everyone is playing catchup against. The Ravens are allowing a league-high 308 passing yards and two passing touchdowns per game (third-most) to opposing quarterbacks. You should be able to get Winston for $1. 

Making sense of the 49ers pass-catchers

The 49ers not only lost their Super Bowl rematch to the Chiefs last week, but they also lost their top three pass catchers in Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle. Aiyuk’s injury is season-ending, while Samuel and Kittle appear to be OK. Still, if the latter two are required to miss time, Brock Purdy will be without his top five receiving options when you include Christian McCaffrey and Juaun Jennings also being out.

Rookies Ricky Pearsall (3-21-0 on five targets) and Jacob Cowing (2-50-0 on three targets) led the way, with journeyman Chris Conley failing to bring in either of his two targets. If, and only if, all five of the top pass catchers remain out, I would lean Pearsall having the biggest role. 

The Cowboys are middle of the pack when it comes to defending opposing wide receivers; they are allowing 150 receiving yards and 0.8 touchdowns per game to the position. Purdy is still throwing the ball 31 times per game, so those have to go to someone. I would spend up to $25 on Pearsall if strapped at wide receiver, but otherwise I would shy away from the 49ers pass catchers.

Aiyuk needs to be dropped with his season-ending injury. I would hold on to Kittle due to the tight end wasteland. Deebo is more interesting with his extreme volatility. I would still hold on to him, but he is a great candidate for a sabotage drop to get others to spend big on him if you are deep at wide receiver. 

Who is Baker Mayfield going to throw the ball to now?

You won’t see Mike Evans and Chris Godwin on the most-chopped players list this week, as they both had productive games before going down with serious injuries. But, similar to Brock Purdy, Baker Mayfield is averaging 33 pass attempts per game and is the second-highest fantasy quarterback to date. Evans and Godwin commanded 46% of the targets from Mayfield, so those have to go to someone else.

The secret is definitely out now on Cade Otton. He is third on the team in targets, seeing nearly six per game. Uncoincidentally, he also saw season-highs in targets, receptions, and receiving yards in last week’s game. 

Veteran Sterling Shepard is the receiver with the most targets after Godwin and Evans, but it was rookie Jalen McMillan who commanded Mayfield’s attention without the pair, seeing a team-high eight targets last week. He only hauled in three, but that was still more than Shepard and Trey Palmer combined. 

Unlike the 49ers situation, we know that Godwin and Evans will miss extended time and that Baker Mayfield will continue to sling it, so go get Otton ($75), McMillan ($30), and even Shepard ($10) if you need a Godwin/Evans replacement. 

Last Week's Most-Chopped Players

What are your thoughts on last week’s most chopped players?

Last week’s most chopped players were Jayden Daniels, Deebo Samuel, Tyreek Hill, Alvin Kamara, DeVonta Smith, Jonathan Taylor, C.J. Stroud CeeDee Lamb, David Montgomery, and Travis Kelce. Go read Paul Charchian’s article for bidding strategies on them.

Jayden Daniels and Alvin Kamara were at one point the leading scorers for their position this season. Daniels being here (for the first time) is obviously due to injury. If he’s healthy, you can set and forget Daniels, but Kamara is a bit trickier. 

This is also a good opportunity to mention not putting all of your eggs in one basket, especially if you are playing in multiple leagues. I started Daniels in all three leagues and was chopped in all three leagues. If you are having success this late into the season, you might want to diversify your starting lineup and look at some week-to-week quarterback depth, hunting positive matchups.

Back to Kamara: Injuries are mounting for the Saints, and Kamara’s usage has plummeted with Spencer Rattler. Hhe’s seeing under 16 touches per game with the rookie behind center. At least Rattler is still targeting Kamara, connecting on 11 of 15 targets over two games, but those aren’t yielding much yardage (19 per game). The receptions will keep Kamara viable, so if I’m strapped at running back I would throw up to $150 on him. 

Now is the chance to pounce on Tyreek Hill since Tua Tagovailoa should be returning. Don’t forget Hill looked normal in his one game with Tua this season, posting season highs across the board (7-130-1 on 12 targets). I would go up to $200 for Hill this week.

Travis Kelce has been on this list half the year. It is certainly disappointing considering the injuries to other prominent pass catchers, but with Patrick Mahomes sitting on more interceptions than passing touchdowns and the Chiefs running the ball 40 times per game, Kelce will have extreme volatility (as will all other Chiefs pass catchers). That won’t cost you much at the tight end position, so keep sending Kelce out there. I would go $100 for him. 

C.J. Stroud had his first dud of the season last week, but I expect that to be an outlier. He gets the Colts this week (allowing the third-most points to opposing quarterbacks) and a Jets team that was just demolished by Russell Wilson next week, so if I need an upgrade at quarterback, I would go up to $100. That could be more, but a healthy Joe Mixon and an injured Nico Collins will dampen his outlook just a little bit.