Welcome back to the guillotine league mailbag! Now that we are about halfway through the season, we will be looking at matchups to hunt and avoid, end game players, and thoughts on last week’s most chopped players. 

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Guillotine League Week 9 Strategy

Now that the season is about halfway done, what matchups should I be looking to take advantage of?

Entering Week 9, there are only 10 teams left. Since eight teams have been eliminated, that means that at least 112 players that were originally drafted are no longer rostered. There will be good players that you will be able to get for free during and after the waiver period. 

Also, with half the season gone, there is enough data to see actual trends versus early-season outliers. For example, after the first two weeks, the Commanders were allowing the most points per game to opposing quarterbacks, over double the league average! Those games were clearly flukes or bad matchups because now (larger sample size) they are in the better half of the league in curtailing quarterbacks and give up less than the league average. The following trends, however, should be able to be exploited for the rest of the season.

For quarterbacks, no team has given up more points to the position than the Buccaneers. Not only are they surrendering 272 yards and two scores per game through the air, but they are also allowing the second-most rushing yards and most rushing touchdowns to the position. That means for this week even the quarterback who is 21st in scoring should have success. That quarterback is Patrick Mahomes, who is coming off his best performance of the year.  

The Jaguars (281-2.1) and Ravens (312-2.1) are giving up similar numbers through the air, so for this week at least give a look at Bo Nix (at Baltimore) and have more confidence in starting Jalen Hurts (vs. Jacksonville).

For running backs, the Panthers have been trampled by opposing runners. They are allowing 158 total yards (third-most) and a league-leading 1.8 touchdowns per game to the position. They are giving up 31 touches per game to running backs! You were probably starting Alvin Kamara anyway, but Tyrone Tracy and Kareem Hunt will have positive matchups as well in the following weeks.

The Cowboys and Patriots are nearly as bad at stopping opposing running backs, so feel good spending a little extra on Bijan Robinson (Tyler Allgeier, too, only if you are desperate) against the Cowboys and Tony Pollard against the Patriots this week. 

For wide receivers, two teams stand out: Minnesota (17-205-1.4) and Baltimore (15-190-1.6) have been trampled by opposing wide receivers. This week I would give a bump to the Colts’ wide receivers against Minnesota. Michael Pittman, Josh Downs, and Alec Pierce should all be able to be snagged for less than $10. The Colts switching back to Joe Flacco is also a positive. I have a feeling the Broncos will be playing catchup against the Ravens this week, so I really like Courtland Sutton, who is coming off his best game of the year. You should be able to land Sutton for $25.

The Chiefs still remain supreme when it comes to allowing points to tight ends. They are allowing the most points to the position: seven receptions and 81 yards per game. If you didn’t snag Cade Otton last week, go get him now! In essentially 1.5 games without Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, he has 20 targets, 17 receptions, 181 yards and two scores. He won’t come cheap anymore, but he has a great chance of finishing as the top tight end considering his situation. I recommended $50 for him last week, and I will bump that up to $100 this week if he’s somehow available.

The Panthers (5-59-0.8) and Rams (5-64-0.6) aren’t too far behind. The Saints get the Panthers this week, but I wouldn’t trust any tight end on that roster as long as Spencer Rattler is under center. I wouldn’t go as far as trusting Noah Fant against the Rams, either, but keep these matchups in mind for future weeks.

On the other end of the spectrum, what matchups should I be avoiding?

No team has been better at stopping opposing quarterbacks than the Bears. They are allowing only 220 passing yards and 0.7 passing scores per game. They’ve largely held the likes of CJ Stroud and Jayden Daniels (nearly half his points came on the Hail Mary last week) in check, so I would be concerned about Kyler Murray this week. I would feel more comfortable with Patrick Mahomes, Kirk Cousins, or Bo Nix. 

One trend I think will buck in the upcoming weeks is the Dolphins against quarterbacks. They have actually been the “best” at curtailing opposing quarterbacks, allowing only 185 passing yards and 0.7 passing scores per game, second-fewest and the fewest, respectively. Those can be chalked up to facing the likes of Trevor Lawrence, Will Levis, Drake Maye, and Joe Flacco in addition to having a sputtering offense without Tua Tagovailoa leading to the opposition getting out to huge leads and running the ball. Now that Tua’s back, I expect more of the shootouts we are used to, so don’t let the numbers deter you from Josh Allen or a rejuvenated Matthew Stafford the next two weeks.

The Chiefs have been stellar at stopping opposing running backs, as they are allowing only 80 total yards (50 less than league average), 3.0 yards per carry, 0.3 touchdowns, and 21 touches per game to the position, all league lows. That means I am fading the Buccaneers' already-crowded backfield. It’s easy to imagine a scenario where none of Rachaad White, Bucky Irving, or Sean Tucker eclipse 10 touches. 

The Lions have been blowing other teams out lately, leading to diminished running back usage, so I would steer clear of Josh Jacobs this week. Detroit is allowing only 17 touches and 95 total yards to the position on the season, both second-fewest. 

Somehow, the Jets are still the best team at stopping opposing wide receivers. They are allowing the fewest points per game to the position, ceding only 8 receptions, 108 yards, and 0.6 scores per game. For comparison, they give up half as many points to the position as the Vikings and Ravens do. They get the banged-up Texans’ receiving corps on a short week that will likely be without Stefon Diggs in addition to Nico Collins. I’m still trusting Tank Dell, but I would steer clear of Xavier Hutchinson, Robert Woods, and John Metchie. 

I wouldn’t look too deep into avoiding a tight end matchup, but the Giants, Lions, and Eagles are a bit better at stopping the position compared to the rest of the league. 

Which players should I be targeting for the end game?

Now is the time to start shaping your roster for the end of the season. If you’ve managed your budget well, you should start spending on superstars when they become available. Start targeting players like Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Derrick Henry, Kyren Williams, Christian McCaffrey, Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, CeeDee Lamb, George Kittle, and, hell, I’ll throw Cade Otton on here. 

I’m not saying to blow all of your budgets if these guys become available, but we are getting to the point where you need to get the best players on your roster before your opponents do. We will devote more discussion on this topic in future mailbags. 

Last Week's Most-Chopped Players

What are your thoughts on last week’s most chopped players?

Last week’s most chopped players were Jordan Mason, Jordan Love, Drake London, Kenneth Walker, Breece Hall, Saquon Barkley, Brock Bowers, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Amari Cooper, and Derrick Henry. Go read Paul Charchian’s article on bidding strategy for this lot.

With Christian McCaffrey expected to return after the bye, it appears the Jordan Mason experiment is over. Injuries and ineffectiveness saw him supplanted by Isaac Guerendo anyway, but I wouldn’t spend any budget on either. I would splurge on McCaffrey if he’s available. With the 49ers’ playoff future in jeopardy, McCaffrey will likely be leaned on down the stretch and deep into the season, unlike past years when he was given breaks the last few games of the season.

London and St. Brown (and somewhat Barkley) had quiet days despite their offenses putting up huge numbers. I’m not concerned about them and would be willing to spend if in need of an upgrade. 

Bowers had a solid game, but with the rest of the tight end landscape going crazy on their holiday, he shows up on this list. He’s still first in targets, receptions, and yards among tight ends. Don’t break the bank for him, but you might be able to sneak in a cheap bid with others chasing other players after big performances last week. 

Keon Coleman is finally breaking out for the Bills, so I wouldn’t be relying on Amari Cooper at this point in the season. 

Kenneth Walker was doomed by an immediate negative game script last week, but he has it much easier in the upcoming weeks with matchups against the Rams, 49ers, and Cardinals. All of those teams are in the top half of the league in allowing points to opposing running backs.