Guillotine League Mock Draft: Tweaking your strategy to fit a unique format
We recently completed a wild 18-team Guillotine league with the Fantasy Life staff.
This is a super fun format that has quickly become my favorite way to play redraft fantasy leagues.
For a quick primer on the format and strategic points, check this post I wrote in the Fantasy Life newsletter and then dive deep into Paul Charchian's comprehensive strategy guide.
Below is a blow-by-blow recap of all my draft picks, including the thought process behind the selections and how I had to tweak my usual draft preferences for this unique format.
By the way, I am going to be streaming another Guillotine draft on Friday evening at 8 PM ET if you'd like to watch me draft one of these live.
High-T Start: Bijan Robinson & Kyren Williams
In a WR-heavy Underdog Fantasy draft, this start could spell trouble. But in a Guillotine league–where we are prioritizing a high floor and getting off to a fast start–the projectable volume from two bellcow backs is tough to pass on.
In other formats, I would have selected Justin Jefferson at 1.07 instead of Bijan Robinson (Dwain got a gift with him at 1.09), but our starting roster requirements allow for up to 4 starting RBs weekly (2 RBs and 2 FLEX). This makes the bellcow backs even more valuable because it doesn't prevent you from continuing to draft RBs if they are the best pick on the board.
Kyren Williams at 2.12 wasn't even a tough choice. The best WR available was Cooper Kupp, who would have been fine, but doesn't offer the same floor/ceiling combo in 2024 as his teammate.
Now all I need to do is hope and pray that Kyren doesn't get his knee torn up returning a punt and I'll be good to go.
Need A WR: Welcome, Zay Flowers
There was basically no way I wasn't going to prioritize a WR after starting RB-RB. Tank Dell went right before me, who I would have selected, but I actually think that was a blessing in disguise as I got another second-year WR who will likely have less week-to-week volatility in Flowers.
Rashee Rice would have also been a defensible pick (Dwain naturally vacuumed him up two picks later), but I think I get access to a lot of the same selling points without any of the (dwindling) suspension risk.
Catch The End Of The Elite TE Tier: George Kittle
This was a tough choice. I obviously still needed WRs, but this format demands that you roll out bankable production at every spot in your lineup. This was a spot where I decided to think through the 2v2s of WR here and TE later or vice versa. Here's how it would have shaken out:
George Kittle and DeMario Douglas (what I ended up doing)
vs.
Diontae Johnson and Tyler Conklin (what would have been available to me)
It's close, but I do prefer my side. Douglas is a much better arbitrage opportunity on Johnson (projected targets on a bottom-10 offense) than Conklin is on Kittle.
Back To WR: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Similar to in Round 3, there was no way I wasn't selecting a WR in Round 5. Like with Kittle, JSN felt like a slam-dunk pick here considering the other WRs available.
After JSN, we entered a range where there are intriguing upside bets (rookie WRs like Rome Odunze, Brian Thomas, etc.) and spike week guys (Christian Watson, Jameson Williams, etc.) who aren't ideal for this format. I need early-season targets from my WR2.
JSN also checks all the boxes for a second-year breakout. The reviews out of camp have been stellar and I think he provides a sneaky floor here, along with a chance to smash this cost. No other WRs going after him provide a better floor/ceiling combo.
2 Big RB Upside Swings: Chase Brown and Tyjae Spears
Rounds 6 and 7 is where I really surprised myself, but this unique format provided me a chance to grab the best players available as opposed to chasing a positional need.
Normally, I'd be scrambling to recover at WR with only two through five rounds, but the RBs in this range are just far better bets than the WRs.
Brown certainly has some bust potential, but camp reports seem insistent that he's the 1A in this offense right now. With Samaje Perine no longer a threat to join the Bengals, Brown is a lock for 10+ touches a game in an explosive offense.
A similar thing happened in Round 7. I could have panic-clicked a guy like Adam Thielen or Rashid Shaheed to get a WR3, or I could have selected the electric, Year-2 back in a 50-50 split with Tony Pollard.
Spears was the easy choice. The team has been consistent with their rhetoric and actions as far as using Spears and Pollard interchangeably, which gives Spears a legit touch floor alongside the game-breaking upside.
An Uncorrelated QB: Tua Tagovailoa
This selection really forced me to abandon my best ball brain. In almost every other fantasy format, I want to correlate (aka "stack") my QB selection with a pass catcher. So why would I take Tua Tagovailoa having not selected any other Dolphins earlier in the draft? Because the QB uncorrelated is actually a feature in this format.
When we stack, we are opening ourselves up to variance. But that variance works in both directions–when our stack hits it elevates the entire lineup, but when it misses it can spell destruction. We seek out that variance in contests where all the money/prizes are at the top, but a Guillotine league is all about floor, not ceiling.
So by selecting Tua, a QB I think is still a Top-12 weekly option, I will be able to survive a catastrophic week from any one player on my team because their success is not tethered to another.
Filling Out The Bench: High Floor Options
My final selections were all about building out much-needed depth at WR and some other high-floor options at the onesie positions:
DeMario Douglas - He is a lock to be on the field in 2-WR sets for the Patriots and should lead the team in targets until Ja'Lynn Polk is ready to ascend. The perfect fast-start WR on a build like this.
Aaron Rodgers - This allows me to play matchups at QB if Tua has a tough road spot that I want to avoid.
Wan'Dale Robinson - Similar to Douglas, Robinson is a guy who projects for the second-most targets on his team behind only Malik Nabers. At this point, I'm just trying to buy the cheapest targets available.
Jalen Nailor - Nailor has locked up the WR3 spot in Minnesota, and there is room for a ton of early-season targets here while TJ Hockenson is out and Jordan Addison rehabs an ankle injury/dodges a possible suspension.
Colby Parkinson - Nothing sexy about this pick, but Parkinson will own all of the TE snaps for the Rams early until Tyler Higbee returns later in the season. I think there is a nice target floor here. Fwiw, Jordan Rodrigue–the expert Rams beat reporter who helped alert fantasy gamers to Kyren and Puka Nacua last year–tabbed Parkinson as her favorite Rams fantasy sleeper this year.
Jalin Hyatt - Another crack at the Giants WR room. I want to see how it shakes out behind Nabers and can cut whichever one of them isn't playing in 2-WR sets.
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Here's a look at the full draft board if you are interested:
There's still time to squeeze in a draft before the start of the season. If you'd like in on the action, it's super easy to spin up a league with friends. Here's where to get started.