Jake Nagy delivers the Guillitone Leagues Week 4 Game Plan, featuring bargain players who can help fantasy managers advance.
We’re through three weeks of the Fantasy Football season, which means three teams have been chopped in your Guillotine League. By this point, I’m willing to bet your league has seen at least one Monday Night Sweater, as we like to call it in our home league. In mine, we’ve had the last two chops decided by 0.12 points and 0.16 points. I genuinely believe there’s nothing more stomach-churning, leg-tapping, and hair-losing than sweating out a potential chop on Monday Night. With two Monday Night games last week and two more this week, that only increases the likelihood of anxiety. Trust me, it’s much more relaxing when you can sit back and enjoy the carnage from above the Life Line, so that’s where we’re going to get you.
At three weeks in, you can really start to get a feel for your team. You have three data points off which to work, and trends and patterns are already starting to emerge. A standard Guillotine League still has 15 teams, and your odds of getting chopped sit at just 6.7%. Each Tuesday, Charch outlines his Waiver Wire Guide—don’t overlook the Self Evaluation and Broad Bidding Strategies sections. Even if you think you have a long-term problem due to multiple injuries, you can still get by with lower-tier players. I’m here to help you save your FAAB and stay alive with safe starts at cheap costs.
Quarterback
Sam Darnold at Green Bay Packers (73.9% owned)
You want consistency on your Guillotine League Team? How’s this for consistency? Sam Darnold is the only quarterback to throw multiple touchdown passes in every game this season. Read that again! What Darnold and Kevin O’Connell have been able to do thus far has been nothing short of impressive, and I’d feel comfortable starting Darnold in this matchup with Green Bay. The Packers have allowed 250+ yards and two scores to substandard passers Jalen Hurts and Will Levis. Anthony Richardson and his 49% completion rate managed 200+ yards and a score through the air. Jordan Addison could return this week to give Darnold another weapon on the outside, and Justin Jefferson has posted some huge numbers against the Packers in years past.
Andy Dalton vs. Cincinnati Bengals (7.9% owned)
Sam Darnold is the only quarterback to throw multiple touchdown passes in each game, and Andy Dalton was the first quarterback to throw for 300+ yards and three touchdowns in a single game this season—Joe Burrow joined him a day after Dalton reached that rarefied air. Redheads are having their moment, people, and that’s why I’m starting Carson Wentz in all of my Guillotine Leagues this week. Alright, not really, but here’s some other backup quarterbacks who are rostered more than Dalton on guillotineleagues.com: Russell Wilson … Drake Maye … Bryce Young … Michael Penix. Wake up! Drop those guys for Dalton in a plus matchup/revenge game against a Bengals defense that just got pieced up by rookie Jayden Daniels on Monday night. Cincinnati is allowing the fourth-highest EPA per dropback and fifth-highest dropback success rate.
Running Back
Justice Hill vs. Buffalo Bills (69.6% owned)
Justice Hill hasn’t matched his 6.0 utilization score nor 11.50 fantasy points from Week 1, but he’s still seeing at least 40% of the snaps and virtually all of Baltimore’s passing down work over Derrick Henry. If any opponent can replicate the game script the Chiefs had the Ravens in during Week 1, it’s the Bills. Buffalo is allowing over 6 receptions per game to opposing backfields, fourth most, and two backs have seen 6 or more targets against them. If Hill gets 4 or 5 of those catches, he’ll tack on some yardage to provide you with a solid floor that won’t get you chopped.
Cordarrelle Patterson at Indianapolis Colts (15.0% owned)
Najee Harris was reportedly in a sling Monday, and Jaylen Warren had an MRI that came back negative, but could miss this week. If both miss this game, that would mean a ton of work for Cordarrelle Patterson in a run-first offense against the league’s most toothless run defense. Indy is allowing the most rushing yards to opposing backs thus far, including two 30-carry, 150-yard performances. Their movable object met an unstoppable force in Chicago last week, so I’m tossing those results out. Even if only one of Harris/Warren sits, Patterson still holds standalone value to go along with the contingent upside of a reaggravation. Arthur Smith is well known for his use of 21 personnel.
Wide Receiver
Michael Wilson vs. Washington Commanders (60.3% owned)
Michael Wilson firmly established himself as Arizona’s WR2 last weekend with 8 catches on 9 targets, leading to a solid 7.6 utilization score. Trey McBride is likely to miss this game with a concussion, opening up even more opportunities for Wilson against the league’s most porous secondary. Washington is allowing the fifth-most receptions and third-most yards to opposing wideouts and have already allowed 9 touchdowns to the position. Jayden Daniels proved last week he can keep up in a shootout, and this game has the highest Vegas total at 50.5, so there should be plenty of opportunity for fantasy points. If Wilson is unavailable in your league, I also really like Greg Dortch (who doesn’t? Definitely not Ian), who’s available in 47.3% of leagues.
Jahan Dotson at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (41.3% owned)
If DeVonta Smith can’t clear concussion protocol and Philly plays it safe with A.J. Brown’s hamstring, Jahan Dotson could suddenly find himself as the Eagles’ WR1 heading into this matchup in Tampa. It’s an opportune matchup, too—the Bucs are allowing the fourth-most receptions to opposing wideouts. If Lil’Jordan Humphrey can get to 6 receptions in Tampa, then so can Dotson. Top cornerbacks Benjamin St-Juste and Mike Sainristil are both allowing passer ratings over 125, and free safety Quan Martin is allowing a perfect passer rating downfield. St-Juste is the league’s third-most targeted corner.
Tight End
Tyler Conklin vs. Denver Broncos (49.2% owned)
I’m going to be very real with you here. There’s an extremely good chance Tyler Conklin was just the Isaiah Likely or Hunter Henry of the week, and this week he’ll come crashing back to earth while another absolute rando drops a solid 10-15 points. Rather than blindly throwing a dart and trying to find that rando, I’ll let you know that the Broncos just let Cade Otton get to 7 catches for 47 yards last week. Pat Freiermuth got to 4 catches for 39 yards against Denver in Week 2. Something in that range would be considered respectable from the tight end position in 2024, so you can roll with Conklin if you’re as hopeless as the rest of us.
Brock Wright vs. Seattle Seahawks (0.0% owned)
We’re back with another 0.0% owned tight end this week—Brock Wright, come on down. Sam LaPorta suffered a sprained ankle last week, and he may either miss this game or be limited. In either case, Wright should be on your roster, especially if you own LaPorta, given his status may be unclear up until an hour and a half before Monday night’s kickoff. Even if LaPorta is active, Wright has standalone value—the Lions utilize 12 personnel at the seventh-highest rate this season, and likely will continue to do so as defenses present two-high safety shells. Wright managed 3 catches for 34 yards last week and could provide an even higher floor against a Seahawks unit that allowed 8 catches for 109 yards on 12 targets to Hunter Henry a couple weeks ago.
