This is the opposite of the previous section, as I cobble together the most dangerous guillotine roster possible. That's not to say that these players aren't good. It means that they're highly volatile in this format.

Rostering several of these guys would be dangerous because they could flop in the same week, even if they were great the week before.

Normally, I avoid the players who share these traits, but for this Bizarro World exercise, I'm showing the most dangerous possible draft, so I'm actually targeting them in my draft:

  • High variation of expected weekly outcomes
  • Low weekly floor
  • Early bye weeks
  • Difficult starting schedule
  • Injury concerns
  • Competition for playing time and scoring opportunities
  • Touchdown dependent 
  • Rookies

For simplicity's sake, I'm drafting from the middle of each round and I'm using the ADP data available at Fantasy Life. 

Again, in case you skimmed the above text, this is the riskiest guillotine draft I could devise. Make these selections at your own risk. 

Round 1: Jahmyr Gibbs, RB - Lions

Why he's risky in the guillotine format: Anyone who's in a tandem backfield is at risk of dud games, even electrifying players like Gibbs.  In some games, David Montgomery is going to have the hot hand or take the goal line touchdowns. In the first round, your selection should be a focal point of his offense. And, he's got the earliest bye, Week 5.

Round 2: Derrick Henry, RB - Ravens

Why he's risky in the guillotine format: Henry is the epitome of "touchdown-dependent players."  Henry’s scoreless games are highly dangerous, averaging just 55 rushing yards, 16 receiving yards and just nine fantasy points per game over the past two years.

Round 3: Tee Higgins, WR - Bengals

Why he's risky in the guillotine format: I worry about second wideouts who play behind target hogs. Ja'Marr Chase chewed up 145 targets last year, severely capping Higgins floor and ceiling. Higgins missed five games due to injury and suffered six (!) disastrously dud games with 6.6 fantasy points or less.

Round 4: Rashee Rice, WR - Chiefs

Why he's risky in the guillotine format: There's multiple reasons to view Rice as a highly risky guillotine selection. First, there's the matter of his possible suspension, which would affect the start of his season. But also, the Chiefs added Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy to the roster, both of whom could steal targets from him. Also, his Week 6 bye arrives early.

Round 5: Keon Coleman, WR - Bills

Why he's risky in the guillotine format: It may turn out that rookie Keon Coleman is electric from Week 1. But the probability is that it takes him several weeks, if not months, to become a reliable fantasy producer—like most rookies.  Even rookies who were taken at the very top of the draft, like Marvin Harrison and Malik Nabers, are risky propositions. 

Round 6: Brock Bowers, TE - Raiders

Why he's risky in the guillotine format: Granted, Sam LaPorta proved that rookie tight ends can have success early in the season. But similarly drafted rookies, T.J. Hockenson and Kyle Pitts flopped badly. And don't get me started on tight ends who were drafted a little later in the first round, like O.J. Howard, Noah Fant, and Hayden Hurst. 

Round 7: Javonte Williams, RB - Broncos

Why he's risky in the guillotine format: It's too early to be drafting runners in complicated, deep committees, but that's what this exercise demonstrates. The version of Javonte Williams we saw last year is the third or fourth best runner on the Broncos.

Round 8: Mike Williams, WR - Jets

Why he's risky in the guillotine format: Williams checks nearly all the boxes for a high-risk player.  In one package you get recurring injury issues, touchdown dependency, quarterback question marks, a dubious offensive line, and the long shadow cast by Garrett Wilson.

Round 9: Deshaun Watson, QB - Browns

Why he's risky in the guillotine format: Some people still think Watson is going to unveil a throwback season reminiscent of 2020. But I see a guy who looks mentally and physically broken. His fantasy power came through his legs, but Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski has taken his wheels off.  Under Stefanski, he's averaging just 26 rushing yards and 0.16 touchdowns per game. 

Round 10: Jaylen Wright, RB - Dolphins

Why he's risky in the guillotine format: Wright had some wonderful highlight runs at Tennessee, but do you remember the wonderful highlight runs of Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane last year? Unless he's superhuman, Wright seems destined for a committee role in the league's deepest backfield.

Round 11: Tyler Boyd, WR - Titans

Why he's risky in the guillotine format: Boyd sounds like the kind of boring player that could quietly help a guillotine roster, but as the third receiving option (at best) on a team with a highly inconsistent sophomore at quarterback, he carries massive volatility.

Round 12: Will Levis, QB - Titans

Why he's risky in the guillotine format: Remember Levis’ splashy debut in Week 8 with four touchdowns? Total mirage. He scored four more times the rest of the year. And he averaged just 224 passing yards. Scoreless 224-yard games will end your guillotine season. By default, Levis has to get better in year two, but he’ll have to improve radically to become guillotine-ready.

Round 13: Taysom Hill, TE - Saints

Why he's risky in the guillotine format: Starting Taysom Hill is not for the faint hearted. You need the kind of steely nerves that allow people to binge watch all six (six!) seasons of Two Broke Girls.  As you already know, Hill randomly pops up with a big game once every four games and gets you virtually nothing in the other games.

Round 14: Odell Beckham, WR - Dolphins

Why he's risky in the guillotine format: Excepting a desirable Week 14 bye, there's nothing but risk with OBJ. In addition to his lengthy history of injury, Beckham finds himself as Miami's fourth, fifth, or sixth receiving option.

Looking back at this roster, I can't imagine this team surviving the month of September.  It's littered with low-floor performers who are apt for dud games.

The Guide to Guillotine Leagues Fantasy Football