Hey, everyone, it’s Paul Charchian, Director of Guillotine Leagues at Fantasy Life.  At this point, we’ve run thousands of guillotine league drafts, creating a reliable sample size of fantasy football ADP data.  

You already know guillotine league drafts are really different, weird, and wonderful. There’s much to learn from the stark contrasts of traditional drafts. 

So, I’ve highlighted some of the key unique aspects of guillotine drafts, for each of the first 10 rounds.

Round 1

In one of my recent guillotine league drafts, I passed on Ja’Marr Chase at 1.08, something that was unthinkable a week or two ago.  

Chase’s holdout has far more lethal ramifications for guillotine league owners than standard leagues.  With 18 teams, guillotine rosters are incredibly thin. Even one game without your first-round pick puts you at a massive risk. Sure, you could try to handcuff him to his presumed replacement, but is that Andrei Iosivas? Jermaine Burton? Trenton Irwin?  Some combination of those guys?

Even if Chase signs promptly—perhaps he’s already done so as you’re reading this—will he play on a reduced snap count? What’s his conditioning like? Is the offensive installation counting on him? There are a lot of variables with Chase, none of them good for guillotine players.

Round 2

Guillotine players (correctly!) covet tight ends and will overplay for them. 

In guillotine leagues, Travis Kelce and Sam LaPorta are being taken well above standard ADP. 

Travis Kelce vs. Sam LaPorta

  • Guillotine ADP: Kelce (23), LaPorta (26)
  • ESPN ADP: 27, 34 
  • Sleeper ADP: 25, 30
  • Yahoo ADP: 24, 29
  • Underdog ADP: 41, 39

The reason is pretty straightforward: It feels like a deep year at tight end, but not 18 players deep.

Someone in your league is going to try to survive with Brock Bowers, Cole Kmet, or Hunter Henry.  In this format, that’s a dangerous, and potentially fatal, game.

The other thing that pushes up tight ends is the long 18-team rounds. In the early second round, if you don’t take a tight end, 30 picks later, the best six or seven will likely be gone.

So, people just square away the position early, safe in the knowledge that it’s a position they can ignore for most of the rest of the draft.

Round 3

Guillotine drafters have decided they can wait on running backs.  By average draft position, through three rounds, spanning 54 players, only 18 (!) are running backs. 

Running backs are the most volatile, dangerous position, and guillotine drafters are spending their most valuable picks on safer positions. And I love it! 

In traditional leagues, volatility has the promise of great upside. But as veteran guillotine players know, upside gains you nothing in this format.  You should be focused singularly on the highest possible floor; volatility offers the downside of a single-digit PPR game, exactly what gets you chopped.

As you’re going to see in the following rounds, the running back position is far deeper than wideout and tight end.

Round 4

The non-rushing quarterbacks start hitting the board in the fourth round, and it’s a mistake you shouldn’t make. Leaving aside the superhuman Patrick Mahomes (who has some mobility) all the quarterbacks being taken before Round 4 offer dual ground-air abilities. But Joe Burrow and Dak Prescott don’t, which limits their floor and ceiling. 

In fairness to Burrow and Prescott, they usually didn’t harm guillotine managers last year, as validated by this terrific Fantasy Life tool that highlights dud games in red. But with a selection as valuable as a 4th rounder, it’s all about opportunity cost. 

Five rounds later, I can get Jared Goff, Kirk Cousins, or Matthew Stafford, who also offer zero rushing upside, but also have a similarly high floor.

Round 5

For many of you, it’s finally running back time! For the first time, we’ve got a round with more running backs taken than any other position.

On average, the seven runners taken in Round 5 are D’Andre Swift, Najee Harris, Jaylen Warren, Tony Pollard, Zack Moss, Brian Robinson, and Javonte Williams.  They’ve all got some warts, but in Round 5, you’re not expecting superstars. You’re looking for guys who can get double-digit PPR points to keep you afloat for a few weeks. 

I’m particularly interested in Swift, who could be the workhorse back in Shane Waldron’s new offense, in the same fashion he used Kenneth Walker in Seattle. The Bears offense should be potent and if Swift gets 70% of the usage, he could power guillotine league teams into December.

Round 6

It’s the sixth round and the wide receiver position is the first to start running out of players you’ll feel comfortable starting. And to be clear, in a draft this deep, your sixth-round pick is a starter. 

By guillotine ADP, here are the receivers going in the sixth round: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Brian Thomas, Ladd McConkey, Keon Coleman, Jameson Williams, Courtland Sutton, and Jordan Addison. 

You’ll notice a recurring theme among them: Young players who haven’t proven to be reliable fantasy starters…yet.

Five of the seven players are rookies or sophomores. Even if those young players end up having solid seasons, how long will it take them to get up to speed?  Can you survive long enough for those guys to emerge? 

I like to remind guillotine players that Justin Jefferson, probably the best receiver in the league, was alternating big games with dud games through the first half of his rookie season. 

Round 7

There are still plausible flex-level running backs on the board in Round 7, something I can’t say about most of the other positions. Ezekiel Elliott and Rico Dowdle are both going in this round and you could find your way to Dallas’ starting running back.

Gus Edwards is the presumed starter in a run-always Los Angeles offense. On the other Los Angeles team, it looks increasingly like Blake Corum is going to have a meaningful role in Sean McVay’s offense.

Carolina runner Jonathon Brooks is going in this round, and I recommend that you don’t make that mistake. His best-case scenario is a return for Week 5, which may not be plausible at all. And even if he does return early, to what kind of workload? It feels like Brooks won’t be getting a reliably large workload until close to Halloween, at which point he’ll have been available on waiver wires a couple of times. 

Round 8

As I’m typing this, I’m in Round 8 of a Fantasy Life employee draft.  There are zero remaining wide receivers I feel good about starting, which compounds my earlier advice to square away receivers early.  

The receivers going in Round 8 are largely low-volume guys, which adds tremendous risk to their selection: Rashid Shaheed, Hollywood Brown, Jerry Jeudy, Adonai Mitchell, Adam Thielen, Gabe Davis, Dontayvion Wicks, and Mike Williams.  

Gulp.

Sure, odds are, a couple of those guys (my money is on Shaheed) will end up being semi-reliable starters.  But do you know which one? And in which games they’re safe to start? 

Low-volume receivers need to generate highlight plays to avoid the kind of dud games that haunt fantasy owners.

Round 9

The fascinating thing about Round 9 is that I’m usually taking my first quarterback here. Quarterback is the most replaceable position in guillotine leagues. Almost all guillotine leagues only use one quarterback, so even with 18 teams, I can find a plausible starter. 

Before I reveal the quarterbacks being taken in Round 9, remember, we’re just looking for throwers who won’t give you a dud game. I don’t need heroics. I need 250 yards and 1-2 touchdowns, enough to keep me from finishing 18th in Week 1.

Keep in mind, the quarterback you draft in Round 9 won’t be your starter for long. You’ll be upgrading him several times over the year. And you’ll be able to improve him affordably because most of the league is satisfied with the quarterback they’ve got and won’t bid much on another passer.

By ADP, the Round 9 quarterbacks are Deshaun Watson, Geno Smith, and Baker Mayfield. I’m particularly interested in Mayfield. He’s got two excellent receivers in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. New OC Liam Coen is an unknown, but figures to be pass-friendly, given his roots in Sean McVay. 

And maybe most importantly, his first four opponents are highly favorable: Washington, Detroit, Denver, and Philadelphia.  In fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks last year, they ranked 32nd, 30th, 24th, and 29th!

Round 10

Round 10 is the official round of longshot, backup running backs. By ADP, seven runners are going in Round 10, and they all have upside if they can catch the right break. They are Bucky Irving, Kimani Vidal, Cam Akers, Khalil Herbert, Tyrone Tracy, Tank Bigsby, and Jamaal Williams.

A Thor Nystrom favorite, Kimani Vidal, has a pathway to big numbers if it turns out that Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins don’t make strides off their three-year-old ACL injuries. The Chargers could end up leading the league in rushing plays, and if Vidal finds his way to the top of the depth chart, he’s got massive upside.

But the question to ask yourself about all these runners is when?  You need these guys to pan out quickly because your roster is going to improve quickly, and these guys are clogging up an important roster spot.

These are the types of guys you want to hold, but in a guillotine league, when you need a roster spot for someone like (arbitrarily) Chris Olave or Jalen Hurts or De’Von Achane, you can’t afford to hold backups for very long.