Jake Nagy chops it up on the Week 13 Guillotine League Game Plan.

Happy Thanksgiving, Guillotine Leaguers! If you’ve never made it this far in a Guillotine League, I promise nothing is more tilting—not even your in-laws bringing up politics at the table after not helping prepare dinner—than your players dropping duds on Thanksgiving. We’re here to help you avoid that fate.

We’ve reached the point in the Guillotine League season where everyone’s rosters are stacked. If you’ve been saving your FAAB, start spending on the talented rosters that are getting cut each week. Charch has begun identifying endgame players in his weekly waiver wire columns, and we’re doing the same in our weekly mailbag.

It’s important to note that on guillotineleagues.com, bidding ends after Week 14, so you only have two weeks left to set your endgame roster, which needs at least eight elite, superstar players.

This column has primarily been a Guillotine-oriented sleepers column, identifying cheap, high-floor, replacement-level options to help you keep your head. All season, Guillotine League managers have been asking themselves whom they should start, but at this point in the season, the more pressing issue is whom they should bench. With no teams on bye and everyone’s rosters stacked, we’ll be shifting to a Start-Bench-Cut format this week. At each position, we’ll identify a low-rostered player you can start, a high-rostered player you can bench, and a high-rostered player you can outright drop.

Quarterbacks

Last Week:

  • Justin Herbert: 17.62 points—neither a hit nor a miss. More on Herbert below.

Week 13: 

Start: Justin Herbert at Atlanta Falcons (46.3% owned)

Herbert just turned in his lowest scoring output in five weeks, but at 17.62 points he’s demonstrated that high floor we covet in our Guillotine League lineups. Herbert’s legs have contributed substantially to that floor during this stretch: he’s averaging over 35 rushing yards per game. Across that same span, the Falcons are allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, including +23-point outings from less-talented passers Baker Mayfield, Derek Carr, and Bo Nix.

Bench: Joe Burrow vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Considering Burrow’s last three games – 29.14 points; 33.72; and 29.04—this could qualify for Dwain’s Brass Balls Bench of the Week. This is Burrow’s toughest opponent in weeks, though. Since Week 5, Pittsburgh has not allowed an opposing quarterback to eclipse 20 fantasy points, which caps Burrow’s normally stratospheric ceiling. Conversely, of the top six quarterbacks in rostership on guillotineleagues.com, Burrow is the only one whose floor isn’t elevated by his rushing production.

Cut: Jayden Daniels

Speaking of brass balls, in last week’s mailbag, I identified Jayden Daniels as a potential sabotage drop candidate. I’m standing by that, even with Daniels’ 30.40-point outburst last week, most of which came on fluky plays in the fourth quarter. In fact, said outburst likely conflates his value for your leaguemates, enticing them to drop even larger wads of FAAB on him. This week, he gets a Titans defense that has fallen off of late, so I’m fine holding on to him for one more week, but his Week 14 bye is looming, along with another tough matchup with Philly in Week 16.

Running Backs

Last Week:

  • Tyrone Tracy: 9.00 points—miss. This Giants offense is a mess. Tracy is still startable in a pinch, though, as he has a plus matchup in Dallas this week.
  • Bucky Irving: 27.10 points—a pre-Thanksgiving feast that could have been more if not for a few SHEESH instances. If Irving is still available, snag him. Dwain breaks down his rest-of-season outlook in the Utilization Report, and he should absolutely be started in Carolina.

Week 13:

Start: Rico Dowdle vs. New York Giants (29.3% owned)

The only way to make the Giants-Cowboys game interesting—aside from drinking—would be to start Rico Dowdle and watch him run all over the Giants’ defense. Over the last five weeks, New York has been tormented by opposing backfields, allowing the second-most fantasy points per game. Based on his Utilization Score, Dowdle has the clear grip on the starting role in Dallas and should reap the majority of those benefits.

Some more fringe options if needed: J.K. Dobbins suffered a knee injury in Monday night’s loss, so you could start Gus Edwards and pray for a touchdown… Austin Ekeler and Brian Robinson are both nursing injuries, so Jeremy McNichols could find himself in line for a starter’s workload against the Titans… I’ve sworn off Raiders running backs in this format, plus they have a brutal matchup in Kansas City, but if Zamir White and Alexander Mattison can’t go again, Ameer Abdullah could once again PPR scam his way to another double-digit outing.

Bench: James Conner at Minnesota Vikings

James Conner is coming off a game in Seattle in which zero of his runs were successful in terms of success rate. Now, he travels to Minnesota to face a Vikings defense that is allowing by far the fewest fantasy points per game to opposing backfields. Since Week 9, not one runner has eclipsed even the 8-point threshold against Minnesota.

Cut: Kareem Hunt

The second Isiah Pacheco is officially activated, it’s OK to let go of Kareem Hunt. He’s been serviceable, and we thank him for that service, but this backfield will likely be too muddled for anyone to produce big numbers moving forward.

Depending upon the J.K. Dobbins news, he’s a cut candidate … Both Najee Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson have positive matchups this week, but if you have better starting options, they can be cut. Stevenson has a bye coming up next week, making him dead weight.

Wide Receivers

Last Week:

  • Josh Downs: 5.70 points—brutal miss (paging Ian for some more SHEESH), and even more brutal is that Downs is likely to miss time with a shoulder injury. He’s a drop candidate depending on the severity of the injury.
  • Calvin Ridley: 14.30 points—neither a hit nor miss. Still available in over 50% of leagues on guillotineleagues.com, Ridley should be rostered at minimum during this stretch of good play.

Week 13:

Start: Ladd McConkey at Atlanta Falcons (58.7% owned)

See Herbert, Justin above. TLDR: Falcons defense bad, Justin Herbert and Ladd McConkey good. Over the last five weeks, Atlanta is allowing the most fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts, including big games to the likes of “Marquez Valdes-Scantling” and “Lil’Jordan Humphrey”.

Bench: Zay Flowers vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Zay Flowers hasn’t hit the 12-point mark in any of his last three games. He now gets an Eagles defense that, over the last five weeks, is allowing the second-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers. Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp were able to find their ways to decent days against Philly last week, but they’re both extraordinarily high utilization players. Flowers is too prone to duds that will get you chopped —he has four games scoring under 10 points—to rely upon him in such a tough matchup.

Cut: Deebo Samuel

Deebo Samuel isn’t healthy, nor is Brock Purdy, and neither is this 49ers' offensive ecosystem at this point. Samuel has not eclipsed 15 points since Week 6.

Jayden Reed has been too unreliable to consider starting, and will continue to be, even if Romeo Doubs misses time … Aaron Rodgers likely doesn’t finish the season as the Jets quarterback, making Davante Adams a cut candidate.

Tight Ends

Last Week:

  • Sam LaPorta: 4.90 points—miss, his whole year has been one big SHEESH.

Week 13:

Start: Your Studs

You need to have at least one of the following tight ends on your roster at this point: Trey McBride, George Kittle, Travis Kelce, Brock Bowers, Cade Otton, David Njoku, Jonnu Smith, and T.J. Hockenson. Start the guy you have. If you need a pivot, I like Taysom Hill. If you’re desperate, turn to Zach Ertz.

Bench: Sam LaPorta, Mark Andrews, Evan Engram, and Dallas Goedert

These guys have proven themselves too unreliable to consider starting over the aforementioned players at this point in the season.

Cut: Kyle Pitts

Stop it. Get some help.