Welcome to Week 5, Guillotine Leaguer! You’ve made it to what I consider to be the first inflection point in the Guillotine League season, for a number of reasons:

  1. Bye weeks have begun.
  2. Depending on your league settings, your roster may be expanding by one bench spot.
  3. We have four weeks’ worth of reliable data.

Managing bye weeks is one of the most important skills a Guillotine Leaguer can hone. It’s the only time a player is guaranteed to give you zero points and is why we advocate for drafting players with later bye weeks. Speaking of, if you’ve already been chopped, go ahead and sign up for a new league at guillotineleagues.com! New leagues are forming every day, and public contests are now available.

Be sure to check your league settings for whether roster expansion is enabled. If so, I like to use the extra spot on a handcuff stash. Some of my favorite pickups this week will be Tank Bigsby (44.1% owned & may be better than Travis Etienne), Kimani Vidal (18.7% owned & that Gus Edwards healthy scratch is coming), and even Kendre Miller (8.2% owned, Alvin Kamara playing through broken ribs). This could be a huge advantage over your leaguemates who may not realize they have an extra bench spot to use before it’s too late.

With four weeks of data points under your team’s belt, you can really get a true understanding of where your team stands. Your odds of choppage are still just 7.1%, but if you’re consistently finishing in the bottom third on a weekly basis, it may be time to make some upgrades. We advise holding on to your FAAB for as long as possible, though, so I’m here every week to provide you with some reliable, high-floor bargain options to get you through the bye weeks, injuries, and players you missed out on through the first round or two of bidding.

Quarterbacks

Geno Smith vs. New York Giants (73.2% owned)

Geno Smith has been my favorite quarterback to watch in the 2024 season. I mean, look at this absolute masterpiece. And check out this stat! Sure, last week’s game script led to the career-high attempts, but Geno has topped 17 fantasy points in three of four games thus far. He now gets a Giants defense that’s allowed 2 passing touchdowns in three of four, including ceding a pair to Deshaun Watson in Week 3. Outside cornerback Deonte Banks has allowed the fifth-most yards and the most touchdowns (4) in his coverage on the young season; DK Metcalf should have a field day similar to the one CeeDee Lamb had last week.

Justin Fields vs. Dallas Cowboys (71.1% owned)

It may not look pretty—in fact, it may look downright ugly at times—but Justin Fields has reached double-digit fantasy points in every game thus far. He hasn’t provided the elite rushing floor we’re used to with just 36 yards per game on the ground, but he’s rushed for 3 touchdowns over the last two weeks. Dallas is bottom six in rushes, yards, and rushing scores allowed to opposing quarterbacks, and allows the second-most EPA per rush. Despite passing at the fourth-lowest rate, Fields will always have a higher floor than your more statuesque passers thanks to his rushing. Pittsburgh added guard James Daniels to its lengthy injury report along the offensive line.

Running Backs

Justice Hill at Cincinnati Bengals (67.9% owned)

I might just rename this column Justice Hill Fan Mail. I’m not sure what else will convince people to listen to me, as he’s still available in a third of leagues. Baltimore runs 21 personnel at the fourth-highest rate, so Hill has been on the field for 46% of their offensive snaps this season. He’s obviously not going to see a 33% target share consistently, but his 16% average on the season trails only Alvin Kamara and Aaron Jones. The Bengals’ offense is capable of keeping the Ravens in a passing script, plus Hill should be able to capitalize on the four rushing attempts he usually sees per game. Cincy is bottom five in EPA per rush and rushing success rate allowed.

Trey Sermon at Jacksonville Jaguars (21.3% owned)

In the fantasy football world, we often say that opportunity is more important than talent. That could not be truer in the case of Trey Sermon. It’s going to be so boring. Frankly, it’s going to flat-out suck watching him plod along 15 times for his perfectly average career 4.3 yards per carry. But assuming Jonathan Taylor doesn’t go, that’s going to be all you need to keep your head. Plus, if Joe Flacco starts in lieu of Anthony Richardson, that’s one less goal-line vulture on the field (and the offense might move the ball better). Sermon has never been much of a pass catcher, but the Jags are allowing the fourth-most receptions and third-most receiving yards to opposing backfields. There’s not much of a ceiling here, but certainly a floor if you’re in need.

Wide Receivers

Ray-Ray McCloud vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (41.9% owned)

Speaking of ceiling, Ray-Ray McCloud provides you no ceiling whatsoever. Think tiny Willy Wonka room. We’re not here for ceiling at Guillotine Leagues, though, go take that to your best ball leagues. We’re going to take our 10 points per game McCloud Medicine and be happy when we don’t get chopped. It’s not sexy, but McCloud runs 89% of Atlanta’s routes and sees an 18% target share. McCloud leads the Falcons in receptions against zone coverage, and Tampa plays zone on more than 80% of snaps. Wait a minute, maybe this is sexy. Moving on.

Jordan Whittington vs. Green Bay Packers (18.0% owned)

It appears I was a week too early on Jordan Whittington stepping into the Cooper Kupp role. Nevertheless, he’s here now, and Kupp likely sits again this week. Whittington nearly tripled his utilization score from Week 3 to Week 4. I’ll take the target leader in a Matthew Stafford offense in my Guillotine lineup every Sunday, especially against a suspect Packers secondary. Jaire Alexander may sit again, but he’s been ineffective even when healthy. Backups Eric Stokes and Corey Balentine, along with slot cornerback Keisean Nixon, allowed 207 yards in their coverage last week. Six different receivers have eclipsed 50 receiving yards against Green Bay already.

Tight Ends

Tucker Kraft at Los Angeles Rams (21.2% owned)

Look, no tight end is giving you a consistent weekly floor; only five tight ends, average more than 10 fantasy points per game, and that’d be four if Trey McBride didn’t fall on a fumble in the end zone in Week 2. One of those four is Dallas Goedert; if you’re a Goedert owner, Tucker Kraft is probably your best fill-in this week. He’s completely overtaken Luke Musgrave as the primary tight end, and even posted a very respectable 7.4 utilization score last week. The Rams are one of the league’s worst defenses, allowing the second-most EPA per dropback and the fourth-highest dropback success rate.

Juwan Johnson at Kansas City Chiefs (26.2% owned)

I’ve rolled my pair of 32-sided dice, picked a four-leaf clover from my backyard, consulted my rabbit’s foot, and collected seven lady bugs. These efforts have led me to believe that Juwan Johnson is your next-best option if you need a replacement tight end this week. He logged 69% route participation last week, more than 20% higher than his previous season high. That’s not nothing, right? Plus, Kansas City far and away allows the most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends; three tight ends have even topped 50 yards against them! Do keep in mind that this is Derek Carr going into Arrowhead on Monday night. We’re all doing the best with what we have.