Jake Nagy constructed the Week 9 Guillotine League Game Plan, targeting Cedric Tillman, Derrick Henry, and others to avoid the chop.

Happy Halloween, Guillotine Leaguers! Tonight, I’ll be dressing up as the Headless Horseman, because I just got chopped in my home league, thanks to three of the Top-10 most chopped players: Jordan Mason; Amari Cooper; and (gasp) Derrick Henry. It happens to the best of us, though, and you know what? I’m not even a little bit pressed, because I know new Guillotine Leagues are forming every day on guillotineleagues.com!

We’ve reached what I consider the second inflection point of the season: there are now 10 teams remaining, and your bench has (potentially, depending on your league’s settings) expanded by one spot. Your odds of being chopped have increased to the 10% threshold, and everyone should be loading up for the home stretch. Charch provided an excellent breakdown of how you should be thinking about your roster moving forward in this week’s Waiver Wire column. You need horses up and down your lineup, but maybe you need to settle for a mule or even a donkey for a week or two – better that than ending up a headless horseman like me. If you’re cash-strapped or bitten by the injury bug, we’re here every week to help identify cheap, high-floor, replacement-level options to help you keep your head. With 10 teams remaining, ground rules are that quarterbacks and tight ends will be outside the top 10 and running backs and wide receivers outside the top 20 in rostership.

Moving forward, I’ll also be identifying highly owned flex position players who were useful (or not even) early on, but are now droppable at this stage of the season. Handcuffs with league-winning contingent upside like Ray Davis and Blake Corum are more valuable on your deeper bench than Rico Dowdle and Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

Quarterbacks

Last Week

  • Caleb Williams: 9.34 points—I’ve learned my lesson. The Commanders’ pass defense’s resurgence might be legit.
  • Russell Wilson: 13.82 points—if he didn’t get you chopped, he certainly made Monday Night a bit sweaty. Also, I counted at least two sheeshes.

 

Sam Darnold vs. Indianapolis Colts (62.5% owned)

By now, we pretty much know exactly what we’re going to get from Sam Darnold: around 250 yards, a couple of touchdowns, and between 16-20 fantasy points. Eventually, that lack of ceiling is going to phase him out of lineups, but we’re still at the point of the season where you can ride a high floor while someone else trips up. The Colts are a perfectly average matchup across the board. Cornerback Jaylon Jones has been excellent on the outside, but like any mortal being, is no match for Justin Jefferson. Darnold has another plus matchup up next with the Jags as well.

 

Bo Nix at Baltimore Ravens (26.6% owned)

I’ve been putting this one off all year because of how little I think of Bo Nix as a real-life football quarterback, but screw it, this is fantasy football, baby. Give me those rushing yards! On average, Nix is delivering over 6 points per game with just his legs. He’s now proven he can take advantage of positive matchups to add enough with his arm and keep you safe. Enter the Baltimore Ravens, who allow the highest passing yards boost and the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. Both cornerbacks Marlon Humphrey (knee) and Nate Wiggins (shoulder) remain questionable after missing last week’s game, but the Baltimore secondary was sieve-like even before losing those two.

 

Running Backs

Last Week

  • Rachaad White: 15.70 points—the receiving floor is exactly what you want in a Guillotine League runner, but the Chiefs are up next. More on that below.
  • Alexander Mattison: 9.40 points—not a total disaster, but yeah, no more RBs against the Chiefs if you know what’s good for you. You know who doesn’t play the Chiefs this week, though?

 

Alexander Mattison at Cincinnati Bengals (67.3% owned)

That’s right, we’re doubling down on Alexander Mattison! Sure, his longest rush went for just five yards and four of his 14 carries went for zero or negative yards, but he still managed almost 10 points! The fake news media doesn’t want you to know that Next Gen Stats has Mattison as Week 8’s most efficient runner by almost 5 points (this has to be an error, and I’m proud of myself for finding it). Still, if he can do that against the league’s best run defense, he can probably do better against a Bengals defense that is decidedly not the best. It’s so obvious that this coaching staff does not want to play Zamir White, and Ameer Abdullah is not going to be a thing.

 

Tyrone Tracy vs. Washington Commanders (57.7% owned)

The Giants’ backfield belongs to Tyrone Tracy now, as he’s more than doubled up Devin Singletary in Utilization Score each of the last two weeks. He should absolutely be rostered and is startable this week against a Commanders defense that’s worse against the run than the pass. Over the last three weeks they’ve allowed two 100-yard rushers, and over their last four have allowed the sixth-highest success rate per rush. They’ve given up a bunch of explosives on the ground lately, and Tracy ripped off several against an even better Steelers defense Monday night. Tracy is currently in the concussion protocol, but appears to be progressing toward being cleared in time to play this week.

Thank You for Your Service:

Austin Ekeler, Rico Dowdle, Zack Moss, Zach Charbonnet, Devin Singletary, and Tyler Allgeier can all be dropped. I’m out on Jordan Mason as well, but he may be worth hanging onto until we get confirmation that Christian McCaffrey is indeed returning.

Wide Receivers

Last Week

  • Wan’Dale Robinson: 8.00 points – if you need 4 points, he’ll get you 8. If you need 12 points, he’ll get you 8.
  • Jauan Jennings: N/A – DNP

Josh Downs at Minnesota Vikings (58.7% owned)

Josh Downs in Joe Flacco’s two starts: 15.90 points and 19.50 points. ‘Nuff said. He’s also coming off a 22.2-point outing with Anthony Richardson at the helm, so he’s carrying some momentum (did we ever decide whether that was real?) into this deeply positive matchup in Minnesota. Over the last five weeks, the Vikings have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing wideouts. During that stretch, seven receivers have eclipsed 11 fantasy points.

Cedric Tillman vs. Los Angeles Chargers (16.4% owned)

I was wary last week, but Cedric Tillman is now officially A Thing. Over the last two weeks, he’s averaging a 7.5-90-1 receiving line on 10.5 targets per game with a Utilization Score of 9.0. You have to keep an eye out for any potential end to the Jameis Winston honeymoon, but it’s tough to stay away from a player with those metrics. The Chargers are also a fairly difficult matchup on paper. On the season, they’re allowing the fewest fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts, but Chris Olave found his way to an excellent day with much worse quarterback play last week.

 

Thank You for Your Service:

Jordan Addison, Keenan Allen, Tyler Lockett, Rashod Bateman, and Courtland Sutton, and yes, even my boy, my PPR scam, Wan’Dale Robinson, can all be dropped. I’m alright with giving Michael Pittman one more chance with Flacco. I personally would be OK with you dropping Jaxon Smith-Njigba, even without DK Metcalf in the lineup. Nothing personal (it’s very personal). Mike Evans can be dropped if you need the roster spot and can’t wait until he returns.

 

Tight Ends

Last Week

  • Cade Otton: 29.10 points—stupendous W. Absolute must-start at the tight end position until Evans returns.

 

Zach Ertz at New York Giants (49.5% owned)

Travis Kelce plays old man tight end like he’s trying way too hard to stay hip and cool and relevant. Zach Ertz plays old man tight end in a sophisticated and elegant manner, like your badass grandfather enjoying a whiskey at sunset after shooting 65 at his country club. Neither of these men are older than 35, by the way. Ertz has quietly been steady in this format, though, seeing five or more targets in four straight games and eclipsing 10 fantasy points in each of his last three. The Giants have been the toughest defense against opposing tight ends over the last five weeks, but Ertz posted 4 catches for 62 yards against them in a Week 2 win.

Thank You for Your Service:

Dalton Kincaid and Cole Kmet can be dropped. I’m not waiting around for T.J. Hockenson nor Dallas Goedert, but if you can spare the bench space, I don’t blame you for hanging on.