🧨 10 Insane Nuggets From Chiefs-Chargers

Thank you to all of the heroes who offered their ribs to Justin Herbert last night and saved the day...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Pikkit.

• Recapping a wild Thursday Night Football
• Smashes & Fades. Week 2 top plays.
• The Fantasy Life Podcast just dropped a new episode
• Is Rex Burkhead actually a thing?
• Geoff's Bets featuring a Terry McLaurin prop
  
• Matthew Berry's Love Hate
• One Week Season's Relative Value Report
• It's 9/16. Take it away, Pete Overzet

We wanted redemption after the MNF dud and boy did we get it last night with the Chiefs holding off a plucky Chargers team for a 27-24 win.

Here's a quick recap of all the madness that occurred, most of it in the final quarter...

🐶 Justin Herbert had his ribs smashed in at the end of the game and still managed to toss a TD to Joshua Palmer. He's set to get x-rays, but I already know what they are going to find.

⚡ The Chargers had absolutely no business covering the spread, but Herbert seriously risked it all for sports bettors. Respect.

🤼‍♂️ Derwin James bodied Travis Kelce after a catch. Wrestling thought leaders are telling me it's called a "spinebuster" in the biz.

💰 Roger Goodell and Jeff Bezos palled around in a suite for the game. Can only imagine the kind of debates they had about Andy Reid's sub-optimal decision to kick a field goal from the LAC 1.

😨 The Chiefs drafted rookie Skyy Moore to be their next great WR, but it was Justin Watson on the field making plays. This could stick.

🃏 Patrick Mahomes warned us it would be spread around this year and apparently he's not a jokester. Joe Fortson, Noah Gray, and Justin Watson combined for 6 targets. He might not be a jokester, but he's definitely a miracle worker.

🤷 Clyde Edwards-Helaire, a perennial fantasy disappointment not known for his explosiveness, ripped off a 52-yard run in the 4th quarter and finished the game with 118 scrimmage yards.

🎰 Despite his solid game, CEH was still out-touched 3-0 in the red zone by Jerick McKinnon. This offense is somehow both a fantasy goldmine and a nightmare.

🍷 Mike Williams broke our hearts on Sunday, but like a partner in the doghouse, delivered us a peace offering of flowers, a bottle of wine, and an insane TD catch last night.

🗑️ Austin Ekeler was trending toward a total bust early, but sucked out late. Deep exhale for anyone who took him over Stefon Diggs and Davante Adams, but you're not out of the woods yet.

If you want to become a great sports bettor, you need a good process. And a good process involves tracking your bets.

That used to be a chore, but Pikkit makes it unbelievably easy by syncing directly with the sportsbooks you use so you don't have to input yourself.

It's so simple to get started:

1. Download the free app
2. Sync your betting accounts
3. Enjoy tracking your progress

If that's not a sweet enough deal for you, new users who sign up with promo code LIFE will be entered to win $100 cash:

The best and the worst. Each week our Director of Analytics and Lead Fantasy Analyst Dwain McFarland gives you his data-backed Smashes and Fades. 

💥 QB Smash 

Derek Carr

Carr draws the No. 2 game total and implied points on this slate against a Cardinals defense that got smoked by Patrick Mahomes for 360 yards and five touchdowns passing.

No, Carr isn’t Patrick Mahomes, but Carr has three quality offensive targets, and the game script looks ripe for a blowup game. Early in 2021, before his receiving corps was decimated, he eclipsed 325 passing yards in four of the first six games. He threw two TDs in five of those contests.

Carr belongs in the top-10 QBs for Week 2.

💥 RB Smash

Joe Mixon

Mixon and the Bengals are 7.5-point favorites – the fourth-highest spread on the slate – which could lead to additional opportunities. In Week 1, no other RB accounted for more of their team’s rushing attempts (93%).

That pairs well with a matchup against the Cowboys, who were pushed around for 152 yards on the ground by Tampa Bay in a game script that could look similar to Mixon’s.

Mixon picked up the two-minute offense last weekend – a development that could help protect him in pass-heavy game scripts. Against the Steelers, he totaled 21.5 PPR points despite trailing by four or more points on 81% of plays.

Fire up Mixon with extreme confidence.

🤚 RB FADE

The Bengals only allowed 30 rushing yards to the Steelers RBs last weekend, including overtime. Elliot managed 52 yards on 11 carries against Tampa Bay, but Dallas had to abandon the run in a trailing game script – which could be the case again as 7.5 dogs.

Without Dak Prescott, the Cowboys carry the third-lowest implied points on the slate, and Tony Pollard is the better passing-down option.

It is tough to see a scenario where the Cowboys can effectively feed Zeke in Week 2, making him an easy fade in all formats.

💥  WR Smash

Amon-Ra St. Brown

St. Brown has seven consecutive games with a 30% target share or higher. The Lions provide the No. 5 implied points against the Commanders in a game with the fourth-highest game total.

Last week, Christian Kirk sliced through Washington’s defense for six receptions and 117 yards. Kirk operated from the slot on 90% of routes – St. Brown’s primary position.

The second-year WR is my WR10 this weekend and is an absolute SMASH play.

🤚 WR Fade

Elijah Moore

Honestly, I never want to fade Moore – he is a fantastic player. However, the purpose of this column is to follow the data, and Moore has the worst WR/CB matchup per PFF.

The Jets’ second-worst implied point total compounds issues as the Browns held down D.J. Moore in Week 1. If Cleveland gets their way, they will seek to control the clock with their running game, limiting opportunities for Moore.

Moore is still fine as a contrarian option in DFS thanks to his talent profile, but he should be the odd-man out in season-long lineup decisions in many cases this weekend.

💌 Matthew's Love/Hate for Week 2. Two bounceback QBs make the Love list. 

🤝 Tyler Allgeier sent me a trade offer. I countered to include himself.

🤔 Is Rex Burkhead actually a thing? Dwain and Marcas discuss in the latest Fantasy Life podcast.

🎨 Drawing Jimmy G every day until he gets traded. Day 225.

🐕 Wow, Kadarius Toney spotted in public! Good to see him. 

In between placing waiver claims and setting our lineups, we do a little sports betting around here. Today Geoff is here to give you his three best bets of the week. All odds from our friends at BetMGM...

💰 Broncos -10.0 vs. Houston Texans

Yes, Nathaniel Hackett stinks at game management. Most NFL coaches do. Although, as a bettor, you should appreciate him taking ownership of the mistake afterward. 

The Broncos opened at -10.5 this week. However, it’s already come down to -10.0 with wagers coming in on the Texans. Denver held Seattle to zero points in the second half while their running backs averaged 5.5 YPC. Meanwhile, Houston allowed 517 yards on defense, and their last six offensive possessions included five punts and a fumble. 

The Texans were scrappy (for three quarters) last week. But let’s not mistake scrappy for good. You’ll likely be able to get Broncos -9.5 at some point but I’m still in even at -10.0.

💰 Carolina at Giants over 43.5

Carolina was fifth in neutral pace last week. It isn’t surprising as new OC Ben McAdoo has always tended towards faster-paced offenses using no-huddle and shotgun. 

And neither of these teams looked great on defense last week, too. The Panthers gave up 5.6 yards per attempt and now face a reborn Saquon Barkley. On the flip side, the Giants were fifth-worst in yards per pass attempt allowed and will face a better receiving group in Week 2. 

This is a low total with an underrated amount of playmakers on both sides. Look for the offenses to dominate and the over to eventually win out. 

💰 Terry McLaurin over 57.5 receiving yards

McLaurin’s Week 1 usage looks volatile at first glance. He posted an 18.3 aDOT on a measly 8% target share with just 58 yards. But there were some positives. 

He led the team in routes run while the Commanders encouragingly had over 40 pass attempts despite being ahead for most of the game. It’s a good sign Carson Wentz can support more than one good performance a week from his wideouts. 

Expect McLaurin’s target share to expand in Week 2 as the Lions’ outside corners proved again in Week 1 they are no match for elite WRs. The over here is a solid way to kick off props. 

💰 BetMGM Prop parlay +193

• McLaurin over 57.5 receiving yards -114
• Chase Edmonds over 2.5 rec -166

💰 Top three ATS

• Broncos -9.5
• Saints +2.5 
• Browns -6.0

💰 BetMGM 7-point Teaser +100

• Broncos -2.5
• Dolphins +10.5
• Saints +9.5

Find out who Matthew is on this week in fantasy! Love/Hate is on NBC Sports Edge, and it's FREE!

It’s #LOVEHATE day! Week 2 is up and it is FREE.

— Matthew Berry (@MatthewBerryTMR)
Sep 15, 2022

Dwprix is a research expert at OWS, and every other week he'll be dropping by the Fantasy Life office to give you his best DFS value plays of the week.

❓ How to find the best value?

One exercise we can do is compare the amount of salary that’s needed to roster a player on DraftKings vs. the salary needed to roster the same player on FanDuel. This is done by dividing the salary on one site by the total amount of salary allowed to build your roster (DK $50k, FD $60k).

Then we can take the percentage of the total salary on one site and subtract it from the percentage of the total salary on the other site. We can also look at the scoring rule differences and what type of player would be best suited for that particular site.

Lastly, we can check how the player’s points-per-dollar value is based on their average in recent games compared to their salary in a given week.

The goal of the article is not to give you picks but to show you how to recognize these values on your own. Each week I’ll break down a few players and give you some quick hitters that you can explore further.

😎 Cooper Kupp:

• FD $9.7k, 16.7% // DK $9.9k, 19.8% // Value on FD

TDs are more valuable on Fanduel because there’s no 100-yard bonus and receptions are worth less. Kupp’s scored at least one TD in seven straight games and had seven games with two TDs last season. His salary on Fanduel takes up 3.1% less than on Draftkings.

😎 Diontae Johnson:

• FD $7.1k, 11.8% // DK $5.8K 11.6% // Value on DK

Diontae is 0.2% cheaper on Draftkings, where targets have more value. He averaged the 2nd most targets last season (10.6) and followed that up with 12 last week. His price went down on Draftkings $200 but went up to $400 on Fanduel.

😎 Russell Wilson:

• FD $7.5k, 12.5% // DK $7.2k, 14.4% // Value on FD

Wilson is the 3rd highest priced QB on DK but tied for the 7th highest on FD. He takes up 1.9% less salary on Fanduel. Other QBs in the same price range take up more salary on Fanduel: Wentz 0.74%, Lance 1.1%, Stafford .07%.

😎 Daniel Jones

• FD $7.1k, 11.8% // DK $5.1k, 10.2% // Value on DK

On Fanduel, QBs typically take less of your salary cap then on Draftkings. Jones takes up 10.2% on Draftkings versus 11.8% on Fanduel. He’s the 23rd priced QB on Draftkings but 12th Fanduel.

On One Week Season,  you can find FREE game breakdowns, weekly slate preparation, and DFS strategy insights and training.

Use code LIFE to save 20% on all OWS subscriptions.