Like a little brother who just lost in Mario Kart, we demand a rematchā¦
In todayās Fantasy Life Newsletter, weāre asking for your feedback.
- Juicy rematches with big point potential
- Rankings Roundtable: Are we buying Minshew Mania?
- The Walkthrough: Rashee Rice, target earner.
- QUICK HITTER: Another game-time decision
- DFS Stacks: Goff & Company
- Fantasy Bingo: Geoff with more winning plays for Week 14
- Itās 12/9. Take it away, Cooterdoodleā¦
We all feel an extra spark in the air when facing off against a league mate for the second time in one season, right?
For the loser, thereās the looming possibility of a ācomebackā in the air, while the winner aims to bury their opponent with the final nail in the coffin. Simply put, who doesnāt love a good rematch??
Well, in Week 14, we have 10 NFL opponents facing off in their own rematches:
- Panthers / Saints: Week 2 - Saints W
- Buccaneers / Falcons: Week 7 - Falcons W
- Eagles / Cowboys: Week 9 - Eagles W
- Lions / Bears: Week 11 - Lions W
- Seahawks / 49ers: Week 12 - 49ers W
And for at least some of these games, hopes are high that we might witness a few high-scoring fantasy repeats. So, for our rostersā sake, I demand a juicy rematch!
š§ PHI @ DAL
Itās been five weeks since theyāve last played each other, but the Eagles and Cowboys are poised for another high-scoring game.
In Week 9, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith both found their way into the Cowboysā end zone. And DAL was able to return the favor with big outings from CeeDee Lamb (11 rec, 191 yds) and Jalen Tolbert (49 yds, 1 TD).
But the player Iām most excited for in this matchup is the tightest of ends: Jake Ferguson.
Ferguson has scored 5 TDs this year. One was against PHI, where he caught a total of 7 balls for 91 yards. Ferguson also has only three games with more than 5 catches this season. And you guessed it, one of those games was against PHI. Are we seeing a pattern here?
With the Eagles ranked 24th against the TE position and 32nd against WRs, I expect a repeat offense from Ferguson & co. on Sunday night. #juicy
š§ SEA @ SF
For this rematch, thereās good news and thereās bad news. The good is everything to do with the 49ers. In Week 12, SF fed fantasy managers a hefty serving of scores from the likes of Christian McCaffrey (19 car, 114 yds, 2 TDs), Deebo Samuel (79 yds, 1 TD), and Brandon Aiyuk (50 yds, 1 TD).
After SEA just allowed DAL to swarm their end zone in Week 13, I donāt expect this TD train to end any time soon. Fire up your 49e- ooh, wait.
So, the bad partā¦
In their last matchup, the 49ersā defense absolutely s-m-o-t-h-e-r-e-d SEA. DK Metcalf (3 rec, 32 yards), Tyler Lockett (3 rec, 20 yds), and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (2 rec, 41 yds) COMBINED for a total of eight catches and 103 yards.
Uhhā¦. Letās hope for their sake, this rematch isnāt quite so one-sided.
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Debating between two guys on your roster? Need someone to break the tie for you? Matthew Freedman, Dwain McFarland, and Ian Hartitz dove deep into their rankings to find a few players theyāre willing to push into their starting lineup for Week 14.
The final week of (most) fantasy regular seasons is finally upon us.
To help you navigate the treacherous waters of the final push for the fantasy playoffs, our expert rankers have put a spotlight on their favorite positional values for Week 14 and why they differ so much from the consensus.
š“ WR - Michael Pittman (Colts) at Bengals
Business is booming for Pittman with Gardner Minshew under center, averaging a mouth-watering 11.1 targets and 18.7 fantasy points per contest. The 26-year-old wideout only has one target share below 31% in his last six outings.
Historical comps with a similar profile to Pittman have averaged 20.7 points per game with a WR4 finish based on data from the last 12 seasons. Despite all this goodness, Pittman continues to lag in fantasy rankings across the industry for some reason.
The Colts carry an above-average team total (22.5) on the Week 14 slate and get a juicy matchup against a troubled Bengals secondary that is now also without Cam Taylor-Britt. Cincinnati allows the fifth-most passing yards per contest (270).
I have Pittman eight spots ahead of Fantasy Life consensus rankings this weekend.
ā WR - Deebo Samuel (49ers) vs. Seahawks
Iām the highest-ranked on Deebo at WR9. I think he goes off this week.
Samuel exited Week 6 with a shoulder injury, missed Weeks 7-8, and played a diminished role in his Week 10 return, but in his eight full games this year, he has 680 yards and six TDs on 48 targets and 24 carries.
Thatās not quite to the level of his 2021 first-team All-Pro performance (1,770 yards, 14 TDs on 121 targets, 59 carries), but itās not far off either.
Against the Seahawks on Thanksgiving, Samuel had 7-79-0 receiving on nine targets with 4-15-1 rushing.
š¤ WR - Brandin Cooks (Cowboys) vs Eagles
Cooks struggled to find his role in the offense during the first month of the season, but heās scored in five of seven games since the teamās embarrassing Week 5 loss to the 49ers:
- Week 6: 4-36-1 (PPR WR20)
- Week 8: 3-49-1 (WR29)
- Week 9: 1-7-0 (WR95)
- Week 10: 9-173-1 (WR3)
- Week 11: 3-32-0 (WR50)
- Week 12: 4-72-1 (WR21)
- Week 13: 4-45-1 (WR21)
Yes, Cooks only has more than five targets in one of these games, meaning heās been especially reliant on big plays and TDs.
Also, yes, these sorts of fantasy-friendly opportunities have been readily available inside of the leagueās top-ranked scoring offense. Dak Prescott is one of just six QBs completing at least 60% of their passes thrown at least 20 yards downfield this season; Cooks has earned weekly upside WR3 treatment EVEN BEFORE CONSIDERING THE SMASH SPOT HE NOW FINDS HIMSELF IN.
The Eagles have allowed opposing WR groups to score an average of 50 (!) PPR points against them this season. The Commanders (44) and Buccaneers (41) round out the top three worst defenses against the position, and they arenāt particularly close to Philly.
Iād be shocked if the Eagles let CeeDee Lamb get going to a similar degree as their first matchup (11-191-0), meaning Cooks should be far more involved than he was in his two-target Week 9 performance. Iām starting the long-time stud receiver ahead of WRs with major QB and/or weather concerns like Calvin Ridley and Cooper Kupp this week.
Who Else Does the Team Like for Week 14?!?
A Week 14 preview breaking down an array of advanced analytics as well as devoted film analysis from a champion expert in the field who just so happens to also be a rather great writer ā is that something you might be interested in?
Well, good, because Legendary Upside founder and Fantasy Life partner Pat Kerrane is here to spread the good word ahead of Week 14ā¦
Patrick Mahomes faces a Bills defense that was very strong at the start of the year but hasnāt been as effective recently. Although, Buffalo still has an effective pass rush, which will likely keep Mahomes on the move, even behind an elite offensive line.
But Mahomes is generally on the move these daysā¦ because he hasnāt been able to execute his first reads. Mahomes is attempting a first-read throw on just 53% of his dropbacks, which ranks 31 of 34 qualifying QBs.
A low first-read attempt rate is often associated with QBs who are struggling in the traditional dropback passing game, like Zach Wilson (QB30), Russell Wilson (QB32), and Justin Fields (QB34). It is fair to say that the Chiefsā traditional dropback game is strugglingā¦ itās just hard to put that on Mahomes.
When Mahomes executes the primary design of the play, heās avoiding mistakes as well as any QB in the league. Only Kirk Cousins has a lower failed play rate on first-read dropbacks.
To summarize, Mahomes is excellent on first-read dropbacks but frequently moves off the primary design of the play. That's probably related to the lack of reliable WRs.
Rashee Rice is reliableā¦ but maddeningly, heās not a full-time WR. Over the last two weeks, heās seen a playing time bump, but only to 69% route participation. Still, with a 2.41 YPRR, heās beginning to feel inevitable.
Even if Riceās playing time remains steady, he has the potential for the playcalling to shift his way. Right now, heās truly earning many of his targets. Over the last two weeks, Rice has seen 19 non-screen targets. But only 47% of them have come on first-reads, which is wildly low.
This situation is frustrating. Rice is dramatically outperforming his role. But this situation is also exciting. The Chiefs desperately need WR to step up, and they have a rookie who is flashing as a legitimate target earner. Eventually, Rice is likely to pop in a big way. Why not this week?
Who wants to deal with injuries? Thatās right. No One. But somebodyās gotta do it. Lucky for you, weāve got the best in the biz to break down each fantasy-relevant situation and how theyāre playing it for Sundayā¦
š² Baltimoreās QB1 is ready. From illness to āfull of lifeā in a jiffy.
š The last week of the fantasy regular season is here. Kendall has your keys to success.
šŖ Weāve BEEN ready to move this WR into our lineups. Heās back!
š„ Getting fantasy questions answered by our team? Cool. By a former Super Bowl champion. Sign me up!
š Jonathan makes the case for Javonte Williams being the guy you need. Better late than never, right?
š¤ More backfield changes. Canāthe injuries stop?
š¤ Red, Blue, Green? There are riddles to decipher in Minnesota.
š Itās like looking at the smart kidās homework. Where the sharps are betting for Week 14.
š¬ Another QB is healthy. And heās expected to start Sunday.
š“ Plenty of rest needed in Seattle. This QB is a game-time decision after a stumble.
Finding the right player stacks can be the key to building a profitable roster in DFS. If you want to get the jump on this weekend, James McCool from Paydirt DFS has the data to guide you for Week 14.
š„ Contrarian option: Detroit Lions
š Facts:
The Detroit Lions are averaging 27.25 points per game, the sixth-best mark in the league, and are doing it with the second-lowest rate of field goal drives at just 1.08 per game (MIA leads with .92).
Of all tight ends with 100+ routes, Sam LaPorta is 6th in the league in Targets per Route Run (TPRR) at 24%, and heās doing it on 80% route participation, which is better than all but T.J. Hockenson above him.
While Jared Goff is no world-beater, he is incredibly consistent and has had five games of 20+ fantasy points this year to show some upside for a modest price when the matchup is right like it is this week.
š Stack info (DraftKings)
š° Salary and projections:
Combo 1 (Goff/St. Brown/LaPorta): This option sits at the top of the price scale at $20,700 and is distinguished by a ceiling of 61.5, suggesting the highest potential for peak performance out of the three.
Combo 2 (Goff/St. Brown/Raymond): With a $17,600 investment, the Ceiling slightly dips to 50.2. The trade-off for the lower price is a modest decrease in the ultimate scoring potential.
Combo 3 (Goff/Raymond/LaPorta): The most accessible at $15,500, it presents a Ceiling of 45.1. While being the most budget-friendly, it understandably comes with the lowest expected top-end scoring performance.
While there is a clear premium on the top-end stack here, you do get the benefit of justified drops in cost and ownership as you go through the different combos. Itās worth noting that Combo is not necessarily all that expensive in terms of the slate, so it should be the default you land on.
š§® Top Finish and High Scoring Potential
Combo 1 (Goff/St. Brown/LaPorta):
Top Finish: At 9.5%, this combination leads the charge, indicating it has the strongest chance among the three to finish at the very top.
60+% Potential: With a robust 19.4% probability, it illustrates a significant opportunity for achieving high-scoring games.
Combo 2 (Goff/St. Brown/Raymond):
Top Finish: Holds a 1.4% chance, which is substantially lower than Combo 1 but still demonstrates potential.
60+% Potential: The likelihood stands at 2.5%, which is notably less than Combo 1 but not negligible.
Combo 3 (Goff/Raymond/LaPorta):
Top Finish: At a mere 0.1%, this combo has a very slim chance of clinching the top finish, reflecting its status as the underdog.
60+% Potential: Similarly, the probability here is just 0.50%, indicating a much lower expectation for high-scoring performances.
š Combo 1: Premium Upside
Represents the pinnacle of performance within this group. Its high Ceiling and Top Finish percentage make it suitable for those aiming for the highest possible outcome in their fantasy lineup.
š„ Combo 2: Even Middle
Strikes a balance between affordability and potential, offering a reasonable Ceiling for those looking to save on costs without entirely forgoing the chance for a high score.
š¤·āāļø Combo 3: Budget for Spending Elsewhere
As the most economical selection, it is apt for players looking to spread their budget across other areas of their lineup, albeit with a recognition of its lower Ceiling and Top Finish likelihood.
Not only are all of the Lion's options relatively cheap, but they are all very low-owned. Not a single one of these combos comes with a sum ownership of above 10%, making them a perfect option for those who want to absorb high ownership elsewhere in their lineup. Look to utilize this stack in large-field GPPs for easy leverage.
Patrick Mahomes? A Contrarian? Iām Listeningā¦
Of course, we all like fantasy football. And who doesnāt like to hang out and play a few rounds of bingo? Well, now you can do both! Our friends over at Rival Fantasy have a new format for fantasy gamers to check out, and Geoff has some plays to start you off with a winning strategy.
If youāre new to Rival Fantasy, a quick overview:
āA bingo card costs $1 and is played on a 5Ć5 grid with 25 random achievements, such as 3 Total TDs, >50 Rushing Yards, and many more. If no one wins, the jackpot rolls over...ā
In Fantasy Bingo, we are building a no-salary restriction roster and trying to hit on an array of achievements (some easy, some difficult) to get a chance at hitting a five in a row or four corners ā and getting a share of the jackpot.
Letās dive into some Week 14 plays.
š¤ QB/WR stack: Gardner Minshew and Michael Pittman
The Bengalsā defense entered the week having allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing QBs. Cincinnati will also be without their top cornerback, so expect Michael Pittman to continue dominating. Heās gone for at least 8 catches in five straight starts and posted 100+ yards in two straight games.
š¤ RB: Rachaad White, James Cook
White is third among NFL RBs in catches and put up 6 receptions for 65 yards the last time he played Atlanta. I expect heāll once again outperform as a receiver and potentially hit some Bingo achievements along the way.
Cook is fourth in explosive run rate (10+ yards) and has averaged 16.5 carries over his last two games. The Chiefs are 21st in success rate against the run making this a great spot to see some big plays from Cook.
š„ WR: Keenen Allen
Allen is a week removed from a hamstring injury and playing a Denver secondary that just gave up a 9-191-1 line to Nico Collins. Allen leads the league in targets (138) and has had some monster days already, going for over 150 yards twice.
š TE: Travis Kelce
Kelce has had success against Buffalo, going for 2 TDs against them in 2020 and catching 8 for 108 yards last season. Heās the TE projected with the highest yardage and reception totals on Fantasy Life and likely approaches his ceiling in targets, given how efficient the Bills offense is.
