💦 2 Big Favs Escape Wild Card Weekend

Overs went 5-0 this weekend...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by BetMGM:

• The Divisional Round is almost set
• Bud Light Six Pack Recap
• OverReaction Monday. Geno and spoilers
• Betting First Look. Bet on Daboll
• Wild Card Monday. Cowboys @ Bucs
• It’s 1/16. Take it away, Peter Overzet…

We are one game away from the Divisional Round being set. And despite a few close calls in the AFC, things mostly went as expected (yes, we expected the Vikings to flop).

Here are the current matchups on tap for next weekend and one big question for each...

🚑 Chiefs (-8.5) vs. Jaguars

Does Trevor Lawrence have any more second half magic in him, or are the cagey veterans going to remind the young guns that they have a lot to learn?

💥 Bills (-3.5) vs. Bengals

Who wins the rematch of the game that never happened? It doesn't get better than this.

⚔️ Eagles (-6.5) vs. Giants

Not sure I can think of a scarier opponent for the Eagles than a divisional rival on a heater. Are the Eagles ready?

🤔 49ers (tbd) vs. Bucs/Cowboys

We know the 49ers will be hosting, but tonight will decide who is heading to San Fran. The real question is whether either team can hang with Brock and co.?

Here's the full TV schedule for those of you looking to block off calendars. Read on for the biggest performers from yesterday's Wild Card action, as well as some overreactions and an early Divisional round bet we love....

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Peter is here to share his six big takeaways from the week's action compliments of our friends over at Bud Light. Let's crack open that six pack, Pete...

🍺 1. The Bills had a sweat

It's not how they drew it up, but the Bills Pulled out a win against the Dolphins by the skin of their teeth as 13.5 point home favorites. Josh Allen had three turnovers, but still managed to get the ball to Gabe Davis (6-113-1) and Stefon Diggs (7-114).

On the one hand, a close win like this can bring up questions about the Bills' status as Super Bowl contenders, on the other hand, a win is a win. Survive and advance, baby.

🍺 2. Danny Dimes & Brian Daboll ftw

If you bet on anyone else to win coach of the year, feel free to rip up that ticket. Brian Dabboll continued his impressive rebuild in New York as the Giants upset the Vikings yesterday.

The Giants were 4-13 last season.

They signed a total 2 free agents to multi-year deals this offseason, 1 of which was a back-up QB.

Their highest-paid offensive player had 6 catches all season.

And yet, they're headed for the Divisional Round.

Remarkable turnaround.

— Field Yates (@FieldYates)
Jan 16, 2023

Daniel Jones flashed his versatile skill set (301 yards and 2 TDs, plus 78 rushing yards), while Saquon Barkley paced all RBs on the weekend with 109 total purpose yards and 2 rushing TDs. Isaiah Hodgins, who lets not forget was waived by the Bills on November 1, popped off for 105 yards and 1 TD.

🍺 3. The Bengals escape

Cincy must have been watching the Bills game because they didn't feel like advancing without a sweat either. The Ravens were within striking distance the entire game, although this wild turnover at the goal line in the fourth quarter changed the entire trajectory:

Sam Hubbard takes it 98 yards for the touchdown 😳

— Fantasy Life (@MBFantasyLife)
Jan 16, 2023

There weren't many fantasy points to go around here, although Ja'Marr Chase (9-84-1) did find the endzone early.

🍺 4. The jig is up, Vikings

We've been preaching caution with regards to the Vikings all season around here, and the chickens came home to roost on Sunday as the Giants upset the paper tiger 31-24 yesterday. 

The Minnesota Vikings finish 13-5 with a -10 point differential.

— Tom Fornelli (@TomFornelli)
Jan 16, 2023

The offense played well (midseason trade acquisition T.J. Hockenson dropped 10-129), but the defense continued to struggle. There's something about the Vikings that feels forever snakebitten, but at least we know we can always count on them for fantasy points.

🍺 5. Tip of the hat, Dolphins

I know there are no moral victories in the NFL, but this Dolphins team going on the road to Buffalo with a third string QB and taking it down to the wire is downright impressive.

At one point, they scored 24 points in 8 minutes of action. It's fair to wonder what would have happened if Tua, or even Teddy, was available for this game...

The Miami Dolphins have a BRIGHT FUTURE. Lost by 3 with their 3rd String Rookie QB to the Bills. Stay healthy at QB, work on getting the offensive play calls in faster and the possibilities are endless.

— Robert Griffin III (@RGIII)
Jan 15, 2023

🍺 6. Back to the drawing board, Ravens

Unlike the Dolphins who have a clear path to a 2023 rebound, the Ravens have plenty of question marks at QB as they appear headed toward a standoff with Lamar Jackson in regards to his contract.

They'll also need to look long and hard for some help at WR:

The Ravens have 3 pass completions to WRs this game and are dominating this game on the road with a backup QB....

— Mitch Snyder (@snyder210)
Jan 16, 2023

🎭 Drama brewing in Baltimore? This is bizarre.

🎉 What a casual celebration. Normally these are reserved for TDs.

🚬 I know football is stressful, but is this legal? God bless Mike McDaniel.

🏈 Get caught up on Super Wild Card Weekend. Plus, EXCLUSIVE QB insight.

💰 Dak is the "optimal" captain in DFS tonight. Take advantage of it.

🤣 You didn't think Mike Gesicki would score and not do this, right? Complete lock, lol.

❌ Our generation's Mutombo. What a play.

🍿 Would you see this movie? Actually, don't answer that.

😮 What is the best strategy for DFS tonight? Find out. 

We're humans who play fantasy football, which means we are prone to overreact. In this weekly series, Kendall will lead us in overreacting to this weekend's action...

👏 Take a bow, Geno Smith

Hand up, I thought the Seahawks could pull off the upset over the 49ers on Saturday. YES. I KNOW. It was a completely emotional bet after growing up in Seattle and cheering for the Seahawks my whole life. Alas, the team couldn’t get it done against a serious Super Bowl contender, but it did get me thinking about the season they had.

If you would have told me in August that Seattle would make the playoffs I would have laughed. Geno Smith was never going to be the answer. Damn, I am so glad I was wrong.

We witnessed Smith breakout at the age of 32. He finished the regular season with 4,282 passing yards, 30 touchdowns and 11 interceptions and led the league in completion percentage (69.8%). He is the first quarterback since Rich Gannon in 1999 to become a first-time Pro Bowler in Year 10 or later, according to The Athletic. An incredible feel-good story that now puts the Seahawks in an interesting situation going into the offseason.

Smith is an unrestricted free agent, and now the question is what Pete Carroll and Co. will do next. The Seahawks enter the offseason with around $49 million in salary-cap space, according to Over the Cap. Reports surfaced over the weekend from NFL Insider Ian Rapoport that Smith is expected to return in 2023 — either on the franchise tag or with a longer contract.  

Smith expressed his desire to stay with the Seahawks after Saturday’s loss. Whatever happens, he proved the unpredictability of the NFL and for that Seattle is grateful!

😈 Two Teams Play Spoiler

We officially had two upsets (so far) on Super Wild Card weekend. LOL Chargers, what are you doing? Even 27-point leads aren’t safe in the NFL anymore. 

At one point on Saturday night the Chargers held a 98.5% win probability — they still blew it. Maybe we’ve seen the last of Brandon Staley as a head coach for Los Angeles? Whatever happens, at least we got this video out of it.

The Giants also came out victorious against the Vikings on Sunday afternoon. Daniel Jones is now the first quarterback in postseason history with 300+ passing yards, 2+ passing touchdowns and 70+ rushing yards in a playoff game, according to NFL Research. Minnesota won all 11 regular season games decided by one score, but couldn’t do it when it mattered most. Cheers to the underdogs, keep going!

It's island game time, and we have you covered from a fantasy and betting perspective. We also have previews and picks for every game in our Game Hub! Cowboys @ Bucs, take it away, LaMarca...

📺 Cowboys at Bucs (+2.5) – 45.5 total

The Cowboys enter their first playoff game of the season as -2.5 favorites. It’s been a year of extremes for Dallas, who were once considered to be the potential class of the NFC before struggling down the stretch. 

A loss to Jacksonville was followed by unconvincing wins against backup quarterbacks from Philadelphia and Tennessee, which then led to a 26-6 loss at the hands of Washington rookie Sam Howell. It was a somewhat humiliating way to end the season for a team who had the chance to be the number one seed prior to Week 18. 

The Cowboys were fourth in the league in sacks this year but averaged just 1.5 sacks per game between Weeks 12-17. That also correlated with a rise in passing yards allowed and somewhat explains the shootouts they were involved in against Jacksonville and Philadelphia. 

Dallas’ secondary also took a hit when they lost cornerbacks Anthony Brown and Jourdan Lewis for the year. The Cowboys allowed eight TDs to the WR position in their last four games of the season and will face off against a couple of elite receivers this week in Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. 

Evans exploded for three TDs in Week 17 against the Panthers, but it’s Godwin who feels like the player Dallas should be most concerned about. 

Tampa Bay made a concerted effort to get him going before pulling the starters last week, with Tom Brady throwing the ball his way six times on just 17 pass attempts. Godwin and Brady have also looked dialed in of late, with Godwin hauling in 31 of his last 34 targets. 

With Dallas’ corners hurting and their pass rush far less effective, Godwin’s over on his 67.5 yardage prop looks worth taking, and chasing him as a TD scorer in the first TD prop market or a single-game parlay also makes sense.

One area that should be faded for Tampa Bay this week? 

The run game. The Buccaneers have dealt with injury issues and poor performance by their O-Line since the preseason, and it’s led to them averaging just 3.4 yards per carry this year, the worst mark in the league. 

Rookie Rachaad White has averaged just 3.36 yards per carry in his last four outings and will have to overcome both a Dallas rush defense that ranks fifth in defensive rush DVOA this year and a playoff-hardened backfield mate in Leonard Fournette, who took just one touch last week in what was likely an effort to keep him as fresh as possible for this week. 

Despite the poor end to their season, Dallas should view the Buccaneers as a potential chance to reassert themselves. Tampa Bay rated out worse in nearly every category this year, struggling to an 8-9 record, which somehow won them the NFC South title. 

While Tampa regressed at defending against the run in 2022-23, they still allowed just six rushing TDs to the RB position this season. If they want to score, Dallas will almost certainly need Dak Prescott to bounce back quickly from a terrible game against Washington. 

Prescott is more than capable of winning this game for Dallas on his own and threw for multiple TD passes in eight of his last 10 games on the season. If he does have success this week in putting up points, don’t be shocked if Dalton Schultz is one of the biggest beneficiaries. 

Tampa’s coverage against the TE position was terrible most of the season, especially in the red zone, as they allowed nine overall TDs to opposing TEs (the fifth-most in the league). Schultz’s anytime TD prop (which sits around +260 as of writing) is worth attacking, and he should be a pivotal player for Dallas’s hopes this week, as he was in their Week 1 loss to Tampa when he secured seven receptions on nine targets. 

Schultz is having a great season and has an excellent matchup tonight against the Bucs, but the obvious focal point of this Cowboys' passing attack is CeeDee Lamb. 

Lamb has made the leap to elite status this season and proved that he can be a true #1 option in a high-powered offense.

His utilization profile was truly impressive this season.

He notched an impressive 29% target share, with a 26% targets per route run rate, and for the Cowboys to have a competitive post season, Lamb NEEDS to be heavily involved.

I expect Lamb to be peppered with targets tonight on his way to his 4th big line in his past 5 games. 

Just based on what we saw during the season, if these two teams both play up to the top of their ability, the Cowboys should win going away. 

Taking Dallas to cover this week feels like the right side to be on, but with some solid totals and good matchups to take advantage of, staying with the props might be the most profitable approach.

Timing is crucial when it comes to sports betting. Lines get released late on Sunday night, and every Monday, our betting specialist Matt LaMarca drops by to give you his first look at the betting markets. Here's what he likes for Divisional weekend. All lines from BetMGM...

💰 Giants +7 (@ Eagles)

The Giants were able to take care of business Sunday vs. the Vikings, winning their first playoff game since the 2011 Super Bowl. They played a phenomenal game offensively, racking up 439 yards of total offense, led by quarterback Daniel Jones. He became the first QB in NFL history to finish with at least 300 passing yards, 70 rushing yards, and two passing touchdowns during the postseason:

A career game for Daniel Jones.

He's the first QB in postseason history with 300 or more passing yards, two or more passing touchdowns, and 70 or more rushing yards in a game.

◻️ 24/35
◻️ 301 PASS YDS
◻️ 2 TD
◻️ 78 RUSH YDS

H/T @NFL | @Giants

— The Athletic (@TheAthletic)
Jan 16, 2023

However, the difficulty factor is going to get cranked up to 11 in the Divisional Round. They’ll have to take on the Eagles, who are a much better football team. They finished the year ranked first in yardage differential and third in points differential, and they were third in Football Outsiders DVOA.

That said, the Giants are extremely familiar with the Eagles. These two teams met twice during the regular season, and divisional showdowns have historically favored the underdog. Underdogs are 15-11-1 against the spread in divisional playoff matchups since 2004, including 2-1 in the 2022 postseason. The Dolphins were able cover as massive dogs vs. the Bills despite starting their third-string quarterback, while the Ravens managed to keep things close vs. the Bengals.

The Eagles are coming off a bye, and while that might be good for the health of Jalen Hurts, it hasn’t historically been an edge for covering. Teams are just 31-40-1 with at least 13 days of rest before the Divisional Round.

Finally, the Giants have exceeded expectations all season. Their win on Sunday moved them to 14-4-0 against the spread, so they have routinely come through for bettors. I’m expecting them to get the job done one more time. This line has already dipped from +7.5 to +7.0, so there has been plenty of early action on the Giants as well.

💰 Bengals +4 (@ Bills)

There’s no doubt that the Bengals were lucky to survive vs. the Ravens.

However, the Bengals have been one of the best teams in football at covering of late. Even though they couldn’t get the job done vs. the Ravens, they’re still 26-12 against the spread dating back to the start of last season. They’ve been near-perfect as underdogs, going 11-3 against the spread, including 6-0 when getting more than a field goal.

That makes the prospect of locking them in at +4 very appealing. The sharps were on the Bengals as small home underdogs when these two teams met in Week 17, and I expect they’ll grab the +4 as well. Three is easily the most important number in NFL betting, so I recommend grabbing them as soon as possible.