Interesting you say "Zero" RB and yet you did in fact draft a running back...
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter:
- 2 confounding WRs: Will Fuller and Michael Thomas
- Pete's Best Ball Summer School: Roster Construction
- A rumor about Deshaun Watson's suspension
- Full Disclosure: Dalton Schultz
- Team preview: Atlanta Falcons
- It’s 6/20. Take it away, Peter Overzet…
There are still a few big question marks at the WR position as we speed toward training camp. One of these represents a discounted buying opportunity in early Underdog Drafts, but the other could be a falling knife.
First up we have WR Will Fuller, who currently remains unsigned. Even weirder, there isn't a drop of info about him to be found anywhere...
We know more about the deep North Atlantic Ocean floor than Will Fuller's free agency. I can't find reports. No IG account either.
The last time we saw Fuller in action was for the Miami Dolphins in 2021, but he suffered a broken finger in Week 4 and was placed on IR. I've been willing to kick the tires on him at his current Underdog ADP (178) because it's hard to imagine a landing spot that would cause him to go even lower in drafts.
One WR that we probably need to reconsider selecting, though, is Saints WR Michael Thomas, who is currently going at the 6/7 turn in drafts. Thomas missed all of 2021 due to a foot injury and Saints Coach Dennis Allen said he'd expect him to be ready for training camp.
But this video posted on Friday sure doesn't look like a WR who is ready to go full speed:
Michael Thomas getting some work in.
If you're drafting now, like the rest of us best ball sickos, I think you need to ask yourself whether you think this player could potentially get cheaper before the season starts.
In the case of Fuller, I believe his ADP will instantly shoot up multiple rounds the second he signs. But for Thomas, I'm worried he'll fall even further if we hit training camp and he's not ready.
Last week Professor Pete introduced us to the best ball basics, but today we are ready for a truly meaty course on roster construction, the most important aspect of best ball drafting.
Last year I finished 8th in Underdog’s first Best Ball Mania tournament for $25,000 with a team I drafted on stream with Erik Beimfohr.
What was particularly interesting about the finish is that the team didn’t have any of the 2021 league winners. There was no Jonathan Taylor. No Cooper Kupp. No Deebo Samuel. No Mark Andrews. No Joe Burrow.
How is that possible?
Roster construction.
Picking the right type of players is important–and it’s something we will dive into over the course of hot best ball summer–but nothing is more important in best ball than roster construction.
Because we can’t make any roster moves after the draft, we must rely on our structure to not only withstand the chaos of the regular season, but also possess the upside needed to take down a massive 470-person final in Week 17.
Here are my 5 quick tips for how to build successful teams on Underdog:
1. Try to generally stay within these positional limits. We have only 18 roster spots to work with and need to fill a weekly starting lineup of 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 FLEX, and 1 TE. There is no one hard and fast rule on how many players you should take at each position, but I generally stay within this framework:
- Quarterbacks: 2-3
- Running Backs: 4-7
- Wide Receivers: 7-10
- Tight Ends: 2-3
2. Draft like you are right. This might be the most important lesson in all of best ball drafting. A lot of noobie drafters have the tendency to worry about how things could go wrong with their early picks and then try to protect against that later in the draft (e.g. drafting Alexander Mattison in case Dalvin Cook gets hurt).
This kind of thinking will limit your upside and drive you toward suboptimal constructions. Instead, assume every pick you made was a total smash and let that dictate your future decisions.
Did you start your draft with Taylor, Leonard Fournette, and Javonte Williams? Cool, those are some nice RBs, but now you are going to want to wait a long, long time to grab your fourth (and likely final) RB. Why? Because you used your three most valuable picks on the RB position and now are working under the assumption that they will all have great seasons and cover your 2 RB slots each and every week.
3. Get comfortable with quality or quantity. Not both. In the example above, you drafted three high-quality RBs in the first 25 picks of the draft, which means you now need a small quantity of RBs.
On the flip side, because you missed out on all of the high-quality WRs, you’ll need to make up for it with a large quantity. In builds where you draft 3 RBs early, I’m aiming for 9, and maybe even 10, total WRs to make up for the quality with quantity. Similarly, if I draft WRs and TEs early, I’ll be aiming for 6-7 total RBs.
4. Utilize one of these 3 draft structures. Over the years, three dominant draft structures surrounding the RB position have emerged:
⚓ Anchor RB (one RB in first two rounds, RB2 after Round 5) - In 2021, teams who utilized Anchor RB and took between 5-6 total RBs advanced to the playoffs almost 20% of the time, a higher rate than any other structural strategy.
0️⃣ Zero RB (first RB taken after round 5) - Yes, the very scary, polarizing Zero RB strategy. The team I referenced at the beginning that finished in 8th place was a Zero RB team where we didn’t take an RB until the end of Round 8. This strategy is riskier than the others but also has the highest upside. Zero RB teams had a higher advancement rate to the finals in 2021 than any other structure. When executing Zero RB, we’ll be focused on the quantity of backs (6-7), instead of quality.
📦 Hyperfragile RB (three RBs early, no more than 4 total) - The Taylor/Fournette/Williams example I mentioned above would be considered a hyperfragile build. Justin Herzig, the winner of the first ever Best Ball Mania in 2020, employed this strategy. After taking Alvin Kamara, Chris Carson, and David Montgomery, he added only one other RB the rest of the draft (Tony Pollard). This is essentially the inverse of Zero RB, where we are focusing on the quality of the RBs, instead of the quantity.
If you want to dive deeper on these three structural strategies, I made a video covering them in-depth and how to execute them in your drafts:
5. Let the draft room dictate your construction. It’s tempting to come into a draft with a predetermined strategy you want to utilize, but we should instead keep all of these structures in our toolbelt and let our opponents funnel us to the most optimal construction for that specific draft.
Are the RBs flying off the shelves in Round 1? Maybe you set up a Zero RB build and take Stefon Diggs and Travis Kelce at the 1-2 turn. Did you get the 1.01 with Taylor but then Tyreek Hill and Tee Higgins fell to you at the 2-3 turn? Sounds like a nice Anchor RB build.
The key is to understand these structures and then be flexible. It’s really hard to mess up the start of your drafts–there are endless combinations of players and positions you can justifiably select–the key, though, is ensuring that those early decisions inform what you do later in the draft.
The best way to get comfortable with roster construction is to hop into Best Ball Mania III and get some drafts under your belt. First-time depositors get up to a $100 deposit match with promo code LIFE.
Also, thank you to Rotoviz's Michael Dubner for the chart and data on advance rates from BBM2. You can get access to Rotoviz, as well as a host of great sites, with a Rotopass subscription.
Next week we will dive into the importance of stacking and correlation. See ya then and don’t forget to put on sunscreen.
🐦 The sleeper RB in Arizona. The team brought in Darrel Williams in FA and drafted Keontay Ingram, but don't forget about this guy.
🚨 The hammer is about to drop on Deshaun Watson. A source says the punishment is going to be significant.
💥 Could a rookie TE actually make an impact? It sounds like it, and it's probably not the one you're thinking of.
🚑 Two players who might not be ready for training camp. This would certainly open things up in the Broncos WR room and the Patriots backfield.
🍓 Make a smoothie or draft Blake Bell 2nd overall. That's exactly what happened to JJ Zachariason on this week's Randomizer Draft, presented by Fantasy Life.
🐟 The most unique fantasy league scorings. Friend of the newsletter and commissioner of the Scott Fish Bowl, Scott Fish, explains the scoring settings for SFB12.
In this series, our contributors will disclose their favorite players and tell us why they can't stop drafting them. Today, Fantasy Life's Community Lead & dynasty guru, Sam Wallace, discloses his infatuation with Cowboys TE Dalton Schultz...
My Guy: Dalton Schultz
Underdog Fantasy ADP: 71 (TE 6)
Why: Schultz enjoyed a true breakout season in 2021 by topping 800 receiving yards, as well as finishing second on the team in targets (104) and receptions (78), and tied for the team lead in receiving touchdowns (8).
Schultz reminds me of Zach Ertz in the best possible way. He won’t wow you with his athleticism, and yards after the catch may never be a big part of his game. However, he’s an exceptional possession receiver who can handle (and earn) a significant target share for a high-powered offense.
Everything broke just about perfectly for Schultz this offseason, too. The target competition has essentially been cleared out:
- The team traded Amari Cooper to the Browns
- Cedrick Wilson signed with the Dolphins in Free Agency
- Michael Gallup will miss a decent portion of the season as he recovers from ACL surgery in early February.
Dallas did spend a Round 3 pick on WR Jalen Tolbert and a Round 4 pick on TE Jake Ferguson, but it's unlikely those rookies will demand a meaningful amount of targets out of the gate.
Schultz is in search of a new contract and sat out the latter portions of OTAs, but I’m not worried about the contract dispute. I think a deal gets done.
His current ADP of TE6 on Underdog Fantasy is a bargain for what he’s capable of. He finished as the TE3 last year and there’s even more opportunity in front of him now. The return of OC Kellen Moore, another year with Dak Prescott, and a healthy offensive line should keep Schultz in the upper echelon of tight ends this season and beyond.
The season is fast approaching, which means it is time for us to get to know all of these NFL teams and who we should be drafting and fading after a busy offseason. In today's team preview, Sam Wallace previews the Atlanta Falcons.
The Falcons finished 7-10 last season but are only projected to win 5 games this season according to DraftKings. Only the Houston Texans are projected for fewer wins.
Arthur Smith enters his second season as the head coach of an offense that will look and feel much different from Falcons’ teams in the past. However, despite the lowly projected win total, there are intriguing fantasy options at a few different positions.
⚙️ Offseason changes
- Atlanta traded QB Matt Ryan to the Colts in exchange for a 2022 third-round draft pick
- They signed QB Marcus Mariota to a two-year/$18.75 million contract
- They traded a 2022 fifth-round pick in exchange for WR Bryan Edwards and a conditional 2023 seventh-round pick
- They spent ample draft capital on offensive skill position players
- WR Drake London (Round 1)
- QB Desmond Ridder (Round 3)
- RB Tyler Allgeier (Round 15)
- WR Calvin Ridley was suspended for at least the 2022 season for betting on games
✨ Team vibes
It’s going to be a rough ride for Falcons fans this season. Mariota projects to be the starting option under center Week 1 and has familiarity with Smith from their days together in Tennessee.
Sophomore standout TE Kyle Pitts projects as the No. 1 option in the passing game after tallying 110 targets and topping 1,000 receiving yards as a rookie. London, arguably the top rookie wideout in this class, has significant appeal in redraft leagues due to his combination of talent and opportunity.
In the backfield, 31-year-old Cordarrelle Patterson leads an uninspiring group of players who could cede touches to Allgeier. Patterson may have surprised fantasy managers last season, but it’s hard to expect that type of unsustainable production from a career journeyman/converted running back/hybrid player.
🎯Draft targets
- Kyle Pitts (Underdog ADP 32)
- Drake London (Underdog ADP 69)
- Tyler Allgeier (Underdog ADP 15)
👋Draft fades
- Everyone else; there is no one I want at current ADP
imagine if sleeper had a notification when you screenshot a trade offer 😬
Nfl fantasy 2022 draft order party! Order from 12 different pizza joints, whoever shows up first, gets to pick their pick in that order @MatthewBerryTMR#fantasy#nfl#espn#pechislandleague
